Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1230521733976903682

Thread.

[pbrower2a]

If changes are within the margin of error (4%), then don't make much of them until election time.

I am guessing that the non-removal without sanction or censure of Donald Trump ratifies his innocence in some minds, but probably not enough.

[pbrower2a]

Vermont, Vermont Public Radio.

Trump favorable 31 unfavorable 66

This far out of the zone of contest, Vermont must be a sure loss for Trump.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Progressive Pessimist]

What the f*** is it going to take for this idiotic country to give our fraud of a President the approval numbers he deserves!?

[Inmate Trump]

What the f*** is it going to take for this idiotic country to give our fraud of a President the approval numbers he deserves!?

About 40% of the country is so dug into believing Trump is some sort of saint and nothing will change their minds.

About 45% will never vote for him no matter what and are likewise dug in.

About 15% are wishy washy and might vote for him or might not.  Undecided voters are idiots.  These people don't know what to think from one day to the next, and nothing stays fresh in their minds.  They don't understand what's going on in the world, or our government, and they don't care to learn.  If you try to explain it to them, they either get mad or they get confused.

There are also a disproportionate number of voters within that 40% that live in states which give the candidate receiving fewer votes an electoral college advantage.

In short, our system for electing presidents is undemocratic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What the f*** is it going to take for this idiotic country to give our fraud of a President the approval numbers he deserves!?

About 40% of the country is so dug into believing Trump is some sort of saint and nothing will change their minds.

About 45% will never vote for him no matter what and are likewise dug in.

About 15% are wishy washy and might vote for him or might not.  Undecided voters are idiots.  These people don't know what to think from one day to the next, and nothing stays fresh in their minds.  They don't understand what's going on in the world, or our government, and they don't care to learn.  If you try to explain it to them, they either get mad or they get confused.

There are also a disproportionate number of voters within that 40% that live in states which give the candidate receiving fewer votes an electoral college advantage.

In short, our system for electing presidents is undemocratic.

Every Presidential candidate has won at least 38% of the vote, I'm resigned to accepting that, but it's those stove-touchers (as i like to call them) that are the real culprits. You're right.

[pbrower2a]

If it is any indication, 37% of the popular vote in the German Presidential election of 1932 went to the Antichrist. Of course the political party system was extremely immature (to put it kindly). The moderate vote went for the dubious war hero Paul von Hindenberg who, regrettably, was going senile. But Hindenberg got the moderate votes and 53% of the popular vote. Ernst Thälmann was the distant third, and he got 10% of the vote as a commie. Thälmann was no moderate, supporting full-blown Stalinist. It is safe to say that Hindenburg won the votes of German democrats of the Center and Social Democratic Parties in view of the alternatives.

45% percent of the American electorate voted for a Presidential nominee who already showed marked tendencies toward authoritarianism in 2016; we are not off the hook.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls are snapshots in time and they only measure turnout, this was not gonna be an easy election for Dems, with a 3.6 unemployment rate. White males are the enterpreneurs while females and minorities are the workers whom are living off minimum wages like teenagers, instead of living off salaries, like they suppose to. New normal

[junior chįmp]

What the f*** is it going to take for this idiotic country to give our fraud of a President the approval numbers he deserves!?

Trumps approval rating peaked with the cyclical peaking of the economy. Expect it to go down as the economy stagnates. I still think the economy will tank around summer

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approvals in swing states seem more in line with reality:

Michigan: 43/55 (-12)
Pennsylvania: 45/52 (-7)
Wisconsin: 44/52 (-8)

https://elections.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/483/2020/02/ERC-press-release-02.23.2020-final-clean.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With surge in Bernie support, a 2008 nightmare scenario is about to happen, not only McConnell loses Senate, he loses his seat

[pbrower2a]

Trump's approvals in swing states seem more in line with reality:

Michigan: 43/55 (-12)
Pennsylvania: 45/52 (-7)
Wisconsin: 44/52 (-8)

https://elections.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/483/2020/02/ERC-press-release-02.23.2020-final-clean.pdf

With these disapproval numbers, Trump loses all three states. Q had a weird sample that got far too many Republicans and too few Democrats, a sample that suggested that Democrats could never win in Wisconsin (contradicted by the 2018 election which I still consider relevant). 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Arizona Iced Tea]

In other news Trump is going to India! Maybe a good trade deal will help his economy grow.

https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1231479457661116416
This follows Howdy Modi and will be Trump's maiden journey to India. He is likely to to make the two nations even closer now. Whether this will have any major geopolitical impact remains to be seen.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh goodie I can’t wait to see our leader encourage another authoritarian strongman and this one is setting up detention camps for religious minorities. Lol human rights are for cucks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs think WI, OH, IA and FL are gone, except for 2000, and 2016 along with NM, when Dems secured the 278 Blue wall, in 1964, 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012, they have voted correctly for the Dem Prez. It's not a 278 election it's a 538 election, that's what Rs want Dems to believe

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, Feb. 23, 1990 RV (prior poll Feb. 15-17).  This was a post-Nevada flash poll, not their usual tracker with Politico.

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I don't know where to put it, so I've decided to put it here.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1231993525623021575

[Progressive Pessimist]

Oh goodie I can’t wait to see our leader encourage another authoritarian strongman and this one is setting up detention camps for religious minorities. Lol human rights are for cucks

It's fairly appropriate as Trump's own election actually reminded me the most of Modi's.

[pbrower2a]

Trump's approvals in swing states seem more in line with reality:

Michigan: 43/55 (-12)
Pennsylvania: 45/52 (-7)
Wisconsin: 44/52 (-8)

https://elections.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/483/2020/02/ERC-press-release-02.23.2020-final-clean.pdf

A majority of Virginians (52%) disapprove of the way President Trump is handling his job, while just over one-third (36%) approve.

https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_news_politics_feb_2020

With these disapproval numbers, Trump loses all three states. Q had a weird sample that got far too many Republicans and too few Democrats, a sample that suggested that Democrats could never win in Wisconsin (contradicted by the 2018 election which I still consider relevant).  

A hint: Obama never won any state in 2012 in which his disapproval number went above 51%. Trump is not as slick a politician as Obama. It would take a flukish collapse by the Democratic opponent or massive cheating by Trump or the GOP (which could include intimidation... you know how that goes -- an employer adds notices "vote straight Republican if you want to keep getting paychecks")  

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

If I were to pick a scenario in which President Trump wins 49 states while losing the District of Columbia and one state with ten to fifteen electoral votes as did Nixon in 1972 or Reagan in 1984, then the one state that he would lose would be either Maryland or Massachusetts.

Thirty-one percent of Marylanders approve of the job Trump is doing as President of the United States and 62 percent disapprove. Thirteen percent of residents approve of the job Congress is doing and 79 percent disapprove.

https://www.goucher.edu/hughes-center/documents/Goucher-College-Poll-Feb-2020-Part-2.pdf

No need to change the map.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs actually showing a decline in Trump's approval, down to 42/55.

Arizona: 47/51 (-4)
Florida: 46/51 (-5)
Georgia: 45/52 (-7)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Michigan: 42/55 (-13)
Minnesota: 42/55 (-13)
Nevada: 40/56 (-16)
New Hampshire: 40/56 (-16)
North Carolina: 44/54 (-10)
Pennsylvania: 45/52 (-7)
Texas: 49/48 (+1)
Virginia: 40/57 (-17)
Wisconsin: 47/51 (-4)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[American2020]

Civiqs actually showing a decline in Trump's approval, down to 42/55.

Arizona: 47/51 (-4)
Florida: 46/51 (-5)
Georgia: 45/52 (-7)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Michigan: 42/55 (-13)
Minnesota: 42/55 (-13)
Nevada: 40/56 (-16)
New Hampshire: 40/56 (-16)
North Carolina: 44/54 (-10)
Pennsylvania: 45/52 (-7)
Texas: 49/48 (+1)
Virginia: 40/57 (-17)
Wisconsin: 47/51 (-4)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Tintrlvr]

Civiqs actually showing a decline in Trump's approval, down to 42/55.

Arizona: 47/51 (-4)
Florida: 46/51 (-5)
Georgia: 45/52 (-7)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Michigan: 42/55 (-13)
Minnesota: 42/55 (-13)
Nevada: 40/56 (-16)
New Hampshire: 40/56 (-16)
North Carolina: 44/54 (-10)
Pennsylvania: 45/52 (-7)
Texas: 49/48 (+1)
Virginia: 40/57 (-17)
Wisconsin: 47/51 (-4)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

At -24 in Maine, it would be basically impossible for Trump to win ME-02. I think NE-02 would have a strong chance of flipping if Trump were only +9 statewide, too.

Of course, this is the dream scenario where Trump's approval ratings match his percentage of the vote.

[pbrower2a]

We won't have perfect information until the electoral results come in -- but these numbers suggest a fire chief facing a scenario with a gang of serial arsonists in a heat wave with simultaneous drought.

This is how a landslide defeat for an incumbent President starts. President Trump needs miracles to rescue this Presidency. One telling factor is that the two oldest age groups include the only one in which Trump's net approval is above water (51-47, among people 65+) and one in which his approval and disapproval are tied (49-49, among people 50-64). So what reservoir of new voters awaits the GOP in November? Among those 35-49 the margin favors a generic Democrat 56-49... which is bad-enough news for the President.

If you look at the last landslide against a first-term President whose election represented a change in the Party of the President, you go back to Carter losing to Reagan. The youngest voters sharply veered Republican in 1980. This time voters under 34 give Trump only 28% approval -- but 68% disapproval. When half the electorate favors the President by 2-3% and another half disfavors the President by 27%, then  the President seems to be facing a double-digit margin of loss. 

To be sure there is no hostage scenario to grind down support for the President, and the economy has not yet tanked. If either happened, then Trump would be in even worse shape than was Carter, who at least had some wisdom, integrity, caution, empathy, and moderation -- all of which Trump completely lacks. Carter may have been in a better position eight months before the election of 1980 than is Trump in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX will go Dem in such scenario