Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Inmate Trump]

Furthermore, looking at each of the past 6 president's net approval vs. Trump's at this stage in their presidencies...

Obama net approval at this stage: +1.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George W. Bush's net approval: +4.2 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Bill Clinton's net approval: +6.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George H. W. Bush's net approval: -3.8 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Ronald Reagan's net approval: +19.3 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Jimmy Carter's net approval: +21.9 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Most of these (except Carter in '80) are actually somewhat close to the margin of victory (or loss) in the election.

Indeed.

And with Carter, a lot happened between January 1980 and November 1980.

In polling matchups between Carter and Reagan, Carter was leading by overwhelming to decent margins up until around June-July...then he slid, but still did decently from August to late October.  Then he tanked.

So it's possible that something happens causing Trump's approval to rise or tank between now and November.

As it stands, judging solely on his approval ratings...Trump is not really in a great position, though not a terrible one either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The economy isnt a factor, the super rich got wealthy. Conservatives always talked about the Trump economy and Trump exacerbated the debt

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

While we're at meaningless statistics.


Obama favs were at ~60% (+25) when he first won. He got 53%.
Trump favs were at ~35% (-25). He got 46%.

Different times. You see what I mean?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Trump's vote share 2016: 45.9%

As of today 538 (RV) : 45.8%
As of today RCP : 46.0%

Net share 2016 -2.1%

Net approval 538 (RV): -4.3%
Net approval RCP (RV): -5.1%


With Real LV Trump will probably get ~1%, so he still needs to get 2-4% in "net approval" depending on how third-party candidates look like. That is if this "impeachment bump" is not temporary which very well might be the case.

[Inmate Trump]

While we're at meaningless statistics.


Obama favs were at ~60% (+25) when he first won. He got 53%.
Trump favs were at ~35% (-25). He got 46%.

Different times. You see what I mean?

They’re not very meaningless. There’s a historical trend and it shouldn’t be discounted.

And besides, I already said a lot of things can happen. Trump could rise in approval, or he could tank. The fact is, he’s done nothing to appeal to voters outside his base and he hasn’t made gains in support over the last 3 years. That’s why he’s stayed at roughly 40-45%. Given the economy, he should be well above 50%. Any other president probably would be, because they’d know when to speak out and when not to. An individual cannot be extremely controversial at literally every turn and expect to be very popular, despite achievements.

Trump’s mouth (and fingers) are his own undoing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once Dems have a nominee and Veep, the race will be defined. Trump is running against Generic Dems

[Hammy]

While we're at meaningless statistics.


Obama favs were at ~60% (+25) when he first won. He got 53%.
Trump favs were at ~35% (-25). He got 46%.

Different times. You see what I mean?

This ignores the fact that Hillary's favorables were even lower.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1230130711342067713
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1230132469128728576

If I said this (and I did!) you would yell @me calling me "arrogant" (and you did!)


"Add Trump's likely advantage with LVs and in the Electoral College, and Trump's could be very close to the place where he needs to be, if he isn't there already."

Nate Cohn (NyT Upshot) is even more optimistic than I am! "if he isn't there already", he says. I don't think, he's already there. I think, he'd probably lose if elections was held today. But if he eases a trade wars, ~leaves Afghanistan and promotes his ability to keep appointing conservative judges, it will be probably Trump's to lose on November 2020.

[wbrocks67]

Trump's Gallup approval remains at 49% .... because they keep oversampling Republicans

https://news.gallup.com/poll/286280/trump-job-approval-steady.aspx

Gallup has observed an increase in the percentage of Americans identifying as Republicans (32% in the past two surveys, up from 28% in the prior two surveys), along with a decline in the percentage identifying as independents (41%, down from 43%) and Democrats (27%, down from 28%).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/286280/trump-job-approval-steady.aspx

FEB 3-16, 2020
B
Gallup
1,028 A

Gold Standard Live B pollster.


Approve 49 (no change since JAN 16-29)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Trump's approval rating may be higher because of the Senate's acquitting him in the impeachment trial. Bill Clinton's job approval ratings also were higher spanning the time between his impeachment in late 1998 and his acquittal in early 1999. Americans' generally positive and improved perceptions of the state of the nation are also likely a contributing factor.

Acquittal and Trumponomy Bump! Who could have known? (Everyone!)


To unskewers:

Even if Gallup did weight the sample to some prior estimate of party identification, the president's overall approval rating would still be his highest to date because of the observed higher job approval among independents and Republicans. Party weighting, which would slightly decrease the influence of Republican responses and slightly increase the influence of independent and Democratic responses on the final estimates, would reduce the job approval estimate by one or two percentage points.

We'll see if there Bumps are temporal ones.

[pbrower2a]

Trump foundering in a state known for high altitudes (Colorado):Trump

https://www.globalstrategygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/The-Rocky-Mountaineer-Political-Report-Topline.pdf

Just as in Maine and New Hampshire, Trump is doing badly in a state that he lost by a small margin in 2016:

Trump approval 44 disapproval 56... will vote for the Democrat 52 and for Trump 41

Senator Cory Gardner approval 37 disapproval 49...  vote 51% for the Democrat, 40% Gardner

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Gallup lol

[Matty]

The fact that Gallup has him at 49 in 2 straight polls is significant

Reduces the likelihood of a sampling error

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 18-19, 1113 adults including 951 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+3)


RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)


This continues a recent trend in which most live-interview polls have shown a steady improvement for Trump, while online surveys have remained more or less stable.  G. Elliott Morris has suggested that a partisan response effect is responsible for at least part of this difference.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting that the Civiqs tracker has had Trump approval basically static for months now - https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Also, Quinnipiac has new polls out today.

Trump approval in-
Michigan: 42/54 (-12)
Pennsylvania: 44/52 (-8)
Wisconsin: 51/46 (+5)

Seems like a sampling issue in Wisconsin. I wouldn't be surprised if he was even = right now, but there's no way he's +5.

https://poll.qu.edu/2020-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=3656

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 18-19, 1113 adults including 951 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+3)


RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)


This continues a recent trend in which most live-interview polls have shown a steady improvement for Trump, while online surveys have remained more or less stable.  G. Elliott Morris has suggested that a partisan response effect is responsible for at least part of this difference.

Makes sense why the Civiqs tracker has not moved either.

[pbrower2a]

Four critical states (FL, MI, PA, WI)

Florida:

Trump's job approval in Florida is underwater in the poll. Fifty-one percent of respondents disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job, while 47 percent approve. Inside those numbers, 41 percent 'strongly disapprove' while 31 percent 'strongly approve'.

The poll was conducted by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab from Feb. 10 to Feb. 18 included 725 registered voters answering the questions of pollsters over the phone. The party breakdown of the respondents were 37 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican, 28 percent no party/other. The margin of error in the poll was 3.6 percent.

Professor Michael Binder, PhD is the director of UNF's polling lab. In recent years polls from UNF had gained national recognition and respect, but Binder admits his poll, and the entire polling industry need to earn back the public's trust after missing the mark in 2016. He says they learned a lot by looking back on their polling once the actual voting in November was done. He says the lab is applying those lessons to its polling this year.

"In 2016, there was a big relationship between whether you were college educated or not and who you voted for," Binder said. "And there is a big relationship between if you are college educated and whether you take college surveys. The more educated you are, the more inclined you are to take these surveys. So what happened was we had too many educated people in our sample which over-estimated for Clinton in some circumstances."

irstcoastnews.com/amp/article/news/politics/president-trump-trails-bloomberg-biden-in-new-florida-poll/77-95bc0055-d238-48a1-aff8-d02ffdd92ca8?__twitter_impression=true




TRUMP APPROVAL RATING (Quinnipiac MI/PA/WI)

When it comes to how voters view the job President Trump is doing, the president scores his highest job approval rating among voters in Wisconsin, 51 - 46 percent. In both Michigan and Pennsylvania, his job approval is underwater as more voters disapprove than approve of the job he's doing. In Michigan, voters disapprove 54 - 42 percent. In Pennsylvania, voters disapprove 52 - 44 percent.


https://poll.qu.edu/2020-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=3656

Note the big change in Wisconsin. Maybe people believe that Trump really was vindicated.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Survey USA, Feb. 13-17, 2768 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 52

I can't find a recent prior for comparison, but they're a good pollster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Feb. 13-16, 1074 adults (1-month change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-4)

I believe this is Trump's best-ever result in this poll, which is usually a bad one for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Feb. 13-18, 1207 adults (1-month change)

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-5)

This is one of several recent polls where we've seen *both* strong approval and strong disapproval dropping significantly, while the overall approval/disapproval numbers don't move much.  My theory is that the impeachment hearings and trial fanned partisan feelings on both sides and drove more people into the strong categories.  Now that the trial is over, that effect is fading.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Feb. 17-20, 1100 adults including 993 RV

Adults:

Approve 37 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

RV:

Approve 36 (-1)
Disapprove 60 (nc)

(Note: 538 currently has the RV approval erroneously listed as 36/50.  I've sent them an email about it.)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Interesting from Gallup:

Gallup's most recent job approval figures for Trump have been slightly higher than recent polls from other organizations, though the disapproval figures from each are essentially the same. Part of the difference in approval, then, results from generally lower "No opinion" percentages in Gallup polls, suggesting that some who might not indicate an opinion about Trump would say they approve if probed. Gallup probes initial "Don't know" responses to see if people might have a leaning in one direction or the other, which likely explains why Gallup tends to have fewer expressing no opinion in its polls compared with other organizations. It is possible that soft attitudes toward Trump in recent weeks have been more favorable toward him than usual, explaining why those initial "Don't know" respondents are disproportionately willing to rate Trump positively when probed.

Gallup "presses" undeciders more than other pollsters, and lately these tend to be soft Trump's Silent Majority. Interesting. But while Gallup is good pollster, it is not very good, so difficult to draw solid conclusions from these.



To deniers unskewers >>>

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1230506652878635008

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't disagree with Nate Silver.  Trump's approval has clearly improved over the last couple months.  But at the same time, there is definitely a noticeable separation in that trend between live-caller and online polls, which has led to the partisan response bias theory promoted by Elliott Morris among others.  I suspect that they're both right to some degree: Trump's approval is improving, but the movement appears greater among live-caller polls due to response bias.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1230888902766014470

[Person Man]

I don't disagree with Nate Silver.  Trump's approval has clearly improved over the last couple months.  But at the same time, there is definitely a noticeable separation in that trend between live-caller and online polls, which has led to the partisan response bias theory promoted by Elliott Morris among others.  I suspect that they're both right to some degree: Trump's approval is improving, but the movement appears greater among live-caller polls due to response bias.

Has Trump actually improved?