Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GP270watch]

 Trump has the EC advantage still. He will probably lose the popular vote with more people voting for his opponent than even 2016. What the margin will be, who knows?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump wont win WI again

[pbrower2a]

Maine. An attempt to glean data from an unconventional poll. Colby College. It is a favorability poll which I do not use unless it is so blatant that it is incontrovertible. (for example, if I see "67% favorable and 28% unfavorable" in Oklahoma or vice-versa in Maryland I use it).

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J_sj0VbK1zPUcErKBWIvCc5d6wFvwhKr_zageM2-I_I/edit#gid=457256029

All:

Will vote for Donald Trump no matter who the Democratic nominee is 34%
Will vote for the Democrat  no matter who the Democratic nominee is 37%
It depends 15%
Undecided 15%

Answered similarly of the two Congressional districts:

CD-01 -- 28/41/15/16
CD-02 -- 41/31/14/14

Extremely... indecisive. Figuring that Trump's early support even in CD-2 is short of the 43$ that he needs to have a chance of winning the district and that 34% (whole state) and 28% (CD-1) is way short, Trump has more than a 50% chance of losing CD-02 this time and no chance of winning anything else.

Favorable 39% unfavorable 60%

CD-01 34-69... CD-02  45-53

Trump looks like a sure loser in Maine at-large and CD-01; CD-02  looks as if it will be close, but with the Democrat getting the edge. With abysmal polling for Trump in Pennsylvania I can see Trump losing everything to the north and east of the Potomac. CD-02

Susan Collins (R, Incumbent, Senate)

40 decided for her -- 34 any Democrat -- unsure 26

Net favorable 42 unfavorable 54 -- pretty bad.

She is in a poor spot for re-election. 

I am not breaking down the district here as that is irrelevant to the Senate race

... Maine voters paid attention to the impeachment process, 79-21. Right decision 48, wrong decision 49.

The decision is not hurting Collins too badly... yet (49 right, 50 wrong)

Does it help her (17%) make one less likely to vote for her (36%) about the same (46%)

If Democrats can successfully tie her to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, then she is in deep trouble:

McConnell favorable 31%... unfavorable 50%

[pbrower2a]

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Feb. 14-17, 900 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 33 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Biden 52, Trump 44
Bloomberg 50, Trump 43
Sanders 50, Trump 46
Buttigieg 48, Trump 44
Klobuchar 48, Trump 45
(Warren vs Trump not polled)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NBC/WSJ, Feb. 14-17, 900 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 33 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Biden 52, Trump 44
Bloomberg 50, Trump 43
Sanders 50, Trump 46
Buttigieg 48, Trump 44
Klobuchar 48, Trump 45
(Warren vs Trump not polled)

Interesting that his approval has ticked up, those that "strongly approve" has ticked down, and those that "strongly disapprove" has ticked...down as well.  

Perhaps an indication that the respective "FOR vs. AGAINST" bases (sorry for the quotation mark overkill) are solidifying?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

lol

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

lol

Good to have you back, darling. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

lol

He’s still losing in h2h polling so keep being arrogant 👍

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Emerson, Feb. 16-18, 1,250 RV

Approve 48 (+1)
Disapprove 44 (-4)

(Dr. RI posted the H2H between Trump and the Democratic nominees over on the 2020 election board)

President Trump’s job performance rating of +4 points is the highest it has been since he took office. This month’s poll finds him at 48% approval and 44% disapproval, up from last month’s 47% approval and 48% disapproval. Emerson College Polling found Trump at 48% approval in December 2019, November 2019, and February 2017 as well but his disapproval numbers are lower now than they’ve ever been before. It also appears that there is no appetite within the GOP for a different nominee, as 91% said they would vote for Trump for the nomination in 2020.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

lol

He’s still losing in h2h polling so keep being arrogant 👍

Those don't matter this far out whatsoever.

And lol Emerson poll

Polls will continue to tighten and improve for Trump as the general election continues to approach.

[wbrocks67]

Emerson continues to be a mess, and NBC/WSJ has regularly been one of Trump's best pollsters. They even had him at 46/52 before the midterms, and we saw how that turned out.

[Figueira]

Emerson continues to be a mess, and NBC/WSJ has regularly been one of Trump's best pollsters. They even had him at 46/52 before the midterms, and we saw how that turned out.

Still, Trump appears to be experiencing that upswing in approval heading into election season that we've seen in every President since Nixon (sans Carter).

Probably what's happening is the few NeverTrump Republicans are realizing that they'll have to vote for either Trump or one of the Democrats, and they hate the Democrats, so they might as well get used to supporting Trump now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

FEB 14-17, 2020
A+
ABC News/Washington Post
1,066 A
913 RV


All Adults:
Approve 43% (-1 since JAN 20-23)
Disapprove 53% (+2)

RV:
Approve 46% (-1)
Disapprove 52% (+2)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-abc-news-poll-feb-14-17-2020/99074fb9-691e-4399-af1e-e6534d53a9d8/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

FEB 13-16, 2020
A+
Marist College
1,416   A
1,164   RV



All Adults:
Approve 42% (+1 since JAN 7-12)
Disapprove 51% (-1)

RV:
Approve 44% (+2)
Disapprove 51% (-1)


http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Wednesday-Release_NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_2002171446.pdf





For what is worth 538 (RV) is now showing Trump -4,2 under water - 45,9/50,1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

FEB 13-16, 2020
A+
Marist College
1,416   A
1,164   RV



All Adults:
Approve 42% (+1 since JAN 7-12)
Disapprove 51% (-1)

RV:
Approve 44% (+2)
Disapprove 51% (-1)


http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Wednesday-Release_NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_2002171446.pdf





For what is worth 538 (RV) is now showing Trump -4,2 under water - 45,9/50,1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Trump's best aggregate-538 disapproval figure since April 30th, 2017 (among RV's, anyway).

[Woody]

Trump approval highest since early 2017 at 538:


Trump approval at RCP:

[slothdem]

As we approach the election Trump's approval is going to creep closer and closer to what his share of the popular vote is going to be - something that pretty much always happens.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 16-18, 1500 adults including 1150 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)


RV:

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 30 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+3)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 41 (+1)

[Sir Mohamed]

As we approach the election Trump's approval is going to creep closer and closer to what his share of the popular vote is going to be - something that pretty much always happens.

If we apply this standards and look at the Obama presidency, Mr. Trump's #s would collapse months into a 2nd term if reelected. Obama's lowpoint was late 2013 if I remember correctly. By late 2021, we might actually slip into a recession.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Trump's vote share 2016: 45.9%

As of today 538 (RV) : 45.8%
As of today RCP : 46.0%

[Inmate Trump]

Trump's vote share 2016: 45.9%

As of today 538 (RV) : 45.8%
As of today RCP : 46.0%

Barack Obama's approval at this stage in Trump's term: 47.9%  (won re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%

George W. Bush's: 48.9%  (won re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%

Bill Clinton's: 48.4%  (won re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%

George H. W. Bush's: 44.3%  (lost re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%

Ronald Reagan's: 55.3%  (won re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%

Jimmy Carter's: 56.7%  (lost re-election)
Trump's approval: 45.8%



Comparing these previous president's approval at the same stage with Trump shows that a lot can happen between now and Election Day.  Trump's not in a terrible spot, but he isn't in a good one either.

[Inmate Trump]

Furthermore, looking at each of the past 6 president's net approval vs. Trump's at this stage in their presidencies...

Obama net approval at this stage: +1.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George W. Bush's net approval: +4.2 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Bill Clinton's net approval: +6.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George H. W. Bush's net approval: -3.8 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Ronald Reagan's net approval: +19.3 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Jimmy Carter's net approval: +21.9 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

[Inmate Trump]

Also, Trump's disapproval is higher than all of the previous 6 presidents.


Obama's disapproval at this stage: 46.2%  (won re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

George W. Bush's disapproval: 44.7%  (won re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

Bill Clinton's disapproval: 41.7%  (won re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

George H. W. Bush's disapproval: 47.2%  (lost re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

Ronald Reagan's disapproval: 36.0%  (won re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

Jimmy Carter's disapproval: 34.9%  (lost re-election)
Trump's disapproval: 51.0%

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Furthermore, looking at each of the past 6 president's net approval vs. Trump's at this stage in their presidencies...

Obama net approval at this stage: +1.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George W. Bush's net approval: +4.2 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Bill Clinton's net approval: +6.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George H. W. Bush's net approval: -3.8 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Ronald Reagan's net approval: +19.3 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Jimmy Carter's net approval: +21.9 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Most of these (except Carter in '80) are actually somewhat close to the margin of victory (or loss) in the election.