Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico national tracker, Feb. 7-9, 1996 RV (prior poll Feb. 4-5)

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Following questions not asked in prior poll:

Definitely vote for Trump 33
Probably vote for Trump 8
Probably someone else 6
Definitely someone else 45
(Net: Trump 41, someone else 51)

GCB: D 45, R 41

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another weirdly mixed bag from YouGov:

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 9-11, 1500 adults including 1140 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 46 (+3), No 41 (-1)

Should Trump have been removed? Yes 45 (+2), No 41 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 34 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 50 (+1), No 44 (-2)

Should Trump have been removed? Yes 48 (nc), No 44 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (-1), Trump 41 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 40 (-1)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Russian bear, you spoke too soon. Today, the jobs openings number was released and posted the largest loss on record:

Cool, brah, but as I said, most economist predict a modest-to-descent growth ~2% and robust JOBS JOBS JOBS! Despite harmfull, but IMO necessary trade wars.

A bit lower-than-expected Q1 depends on Boeing, fears of corona-virus and trade wars. All gone by the election day.


According to failing NyT Uppshot>

The Election Year Economy Is Everything Trump Could Hope For
Even if presidents have less sway over the economy than is widely assumed, perception can be important.

There was never much doubt that President Trump would make boasts about the economy central to his re-election campaign; that is his style, after all. What is becoming more clear is that the data on the economy are giving him something genuinely worth boasting about.

That was especially evident in the first employment numbers of 2020, released Friday morning. It was about as good a jobs report as an incumbent president could hope for nine months before Election Day — and not just in obvious ways.

The big headline out of the latest numbers was that employers added 225,000 jobs in January, comfortably more than analysts had expected. That alone suggests that economic growth is steady at a minimum, and maybe accelerating as the year begins.

The seemingly bad news in the report — the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent — was actually driven by positive underlying trends. The share of adults either working or looking for work rose to 63.4 percent, its highest level since mid-2013. And the share of adults between ages 25 and 54 who were employed reached 80.6 percent, its highest level since mid-2001.

For years, an open question was whether the many Americans who dropped out of the labor force in the aftermath of the Great Recession would ever come back in. The answer is a resounding yes.

Then there are wages, which have been the weak spot of the employment picture for years. They still are: Average hourly earnings are up only 3.1 percent over the past 12 months, below the rates being recorded for most of last year (the same measure rose 3.5 percent for the year ended in August).

Although most sectors of the economy are revving, creating jobs at a healthy pace, there is a notable exception. Manufacturers cut 12,000 jobs in January, the second straight month of decline.

This partly reflects the effects of the trade war, and may reflect ripple effects from Boeing’s shutdown of production of its troubled 737 Max plane. There’s no telling how the politics of the manufacturing slump may play out in key battleground states.

The good news for the Trump administration is that this opens the door for a rebound in the sector between now and Election Day. Already, the calming of trade tensions with China with a “Phase One” deal in January has settled financial markets. And a key survey of manufacturers suggests that the sector swung from contraction to expansion in January.

Stop wishing recession, brah, it will hurt the poors most. It ain't cool.

[pbrower2a]

A warning about Trump popularity: William Weld got about 10% of the primary vote at the stage at which I last saw the results for the New Hampshire primary. Yes, the Republicans had a primary in New Hampshire.

Considering that the President dominates the airwaves these days except on political ads and news not involving Democratic campaigns, such bodes ill for Trump in November. Many Republican voters can imagine better.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A warning about Trump popularity: William Weld got about 10% of the primary vote at the stage at which I last saw the results for the New Hampshire primary. Yes, the Republicans had a primary in New Hampshire.

Considering that the President dominates the airwaves these days except on political ads and news not involving Democratic campaigns, such bodes ill for Trump in November. Many Republican voters can imagine better.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227610766662127616

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wouldn't read a lot (in either direction) into turnout for a primary in which there's an incumbent with no significant challengers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 10-11, 1114 adults including 959 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

[pbrower2a]

I wouldn't read a lot (in either direction) into turnout for a primary in which there's an incumbent with no significant challengers.

Trump actually held a rally just before the Republican primary, which is unusual. Obama didn't. Obama seemed not to like wasting Presidential time or government funds.

What I noticed was that 9.1% of the Republican primary vote went to William Weld and a small number to write-ins, indicating that many Republicans have cold feet about Trump.

Let us put it this way -- the Democrats together got 296,622 votes, which is fewer than 50K away from what Hillary Clinton won in 2016.   

[Yellowhammer]

A warning about Trump popularity: William Weld got about 10% of the primary vote at the stage at which I last saw the results for the New Hampshire primary. Yes, the Republicans had a primary in New Hampshire.

Considering that the President dominates the airwaves these days except on political ads and news not involving Democratic campaigns, such bodes ill for Trump in November. Many Republican voters can imagine better.

I'm assuming this a joke?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wouldn't read a lot (in either direction) into turnout for a primary in which there's an incumbent with no significant challengers.

Trump actually held a rally just before the Republican primary, which is unusual. Obama didn't. Obama seemed not to like wasting Presidential time or government funds.

What I noticed was that 9.1% of the Republican primary vote went to William Weld and a small number to write-ins, indicating that many Republicans have cold feet about Trump.

Let us put it this way -- the Democrats together got 296,622 votes, which is fewer than 50K away from what Hillary Clinton won in 2016.   

"Many" relative to the party becoming Trump's personal cheer-leading squad.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I wouldn't read a lot (in either direction) into turnout for a primary in which there's an incumbent with no significant challengers.

Trump actually held a rally just before the Republican primary, which is unusual. Obama didn't. Obama seemed not to like wasting Presidential time or government funds.

What I noticed was that 9.1% of the Republican primary vote went to William Weld and a small number to write-ins, indicating that many Republicans have cold feet about Trump.

Let us put it this way -- the Democrats together got 296,622 votes, which is fewer than 50K away from what Hillary Clinton won in 2016.   

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227716314409709569

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't read a lot (in either direction) into turnout for a primary in which there's an incumbent with no significant challengers.

Trump actually held a rally just before the Republican primary, which is unusual. Obama didn't. Obama seemed not to like wasting Presidential time or government funds.

What I noticed was that 9.1% of the Republican primary vote went to William Weld and a small number to write-ins, indicating that many Republicans have cold feet about Trump.

Let us put it this way -- the Democrats together got 296,622 votes, which is fewer than 50K away from what Hillary Clinton won in 2016.   

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227716314409709569

Trump literally campaigned in New Hampshire the night before.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wisconsin: Tarrance Group (R), Jan. 14-16, 500 LV

Approve 48
Disapprove 50

Biden 47, Trump 46
Sanders 47, Trump 47

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wouldn't read a lot (in either direction) into turnout for a primary in which there's an incumbent with no significant challengers.

Trump actually held a rally just before the Republican primary, which is unusual. Obama didn't. Obama seemed not to like wasting Presidential time or government funds.

What I noticed was that 9.1% of the Republican primary vote went to William Weld and a small number to write-ins, indicating that many Republicans have cold feet about Trump.

Let us put it this way -- the Democrats together got 296,622 votes, which is fewer than 50K away from what Hillary Clinton won in 2016.   

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227716314409709569

Trump literally campaigned in New Hampshire the night before.

Agreed. The pundits are putting way too much stock in these numbers.

[pbrower2a]

A warning about Trump popularity: William Weld got about 10% of the primary vote at the stage at which I last saw the results for the New Hampshire primary. Yes, the Republicans had a primary in New Hampshire.

Considering that the President dominates the airwaves these days except on political ads and news not involving Democratic campaigns, such bodes ill for Trump in November. Many Republican voters can imagine better.

I'm assuming this a joke?

No joke. Trump has the Republican nomination locked up as it is, so any significant protest vote from within his own Party indicates that a significant number of people within his Party see something wrong with the sure nominee. Maybe they dislike his style, his foreign policy, or the failure of the process of impeachment.

There will be more primaries. Watch them closely. Sure, Weld would surely perform better in New Hampshire than in any state outside of New England.

I have seen polls in which Trump approval in New Hampshire is in the 30's and disapproval near 60%, something that one does not usually happen in a genuine swing state. This is what one might expect Obama to do in Alabama or Oklahoma, neither of which is close to being a swing state. 

The pertinent question remains: is there significant dissent within the GOP (in which case Trump will be unlikely to crack 42% of the popular vote nationwide), or is it simply New Hampshire?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1228050978039095306

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1228050978039095306

More like a jiggle butt.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1228050978039095306

Exactly. The media keeps portraying Trump as this magnificent unstoppable force when he's not. The GOP lost the midterm elections by the biggest margin since Watergate and he had a 46% approval rating at the time.

[forgotten manatee]

A warning about Trump popularity: William Weld got about 10% of the primary vote at the stage at which I last saw the results for the New Hampshire primary. Yes, the Republicans had a primary in New Hampshire.

Considering that the President dominates the airwaves these days except on political ads and news not involving Democratic campaigns, such bodes ill for Trump in November. Many Republican voters can imagine better.

I'm assuming this a joke?

No joke. Trump has the Republican nomination locked up as it is, so any significant protest vote from within his own Party indicates that a significant number of people within his Party see something wrong with the sure nominee. Maybe they dislike his style, his foreign policy, or the failure of the process of impeachment.

There will be more primaries. Watch them closely. Sure, Weld would surely perform better in New Hampshire than in any state outside of New England.

I have seen polls in which Trump approval in New Hampshire is in the 30's and disapproval near 60%, something that one does not usually happen in a genuine swing state. This is what one might expect Obama to do in Alabama or Oklahoma, neither of which is close to being a swing state. 

The pertinent question remains: is there significant dissent within the GOP (in which case Trump will be unlikely to crack 42% of the popular vote nationwide), or is it simply New Hampshire?

Yeah, there were votes for other candidates, but over a hundred thousand people came out to vote for Trump too -- the highest NH primary vote for an incumbent president running for re-election in years.

[emailking]

Trump was pumping it up though, by telling supporters to vote in Iowa, by making a big deal of how he won 97% of the vote in Iowa, by telling supporters again to vote for him in New Hampshire, and finally holding a rally in the state the night before. Past incumbents did nothing like that. They just ignored the primaries entirely after getting on the ballot.

[pbrower2a]

Trump was pumping it up though, by telling supporters to vote in Iowa, by making a big deal of how he won 97% of the vote in Iowa, by telling supporters again to vote for him in New Hampshire, and finally holding a rally in the state the night before. Past incumbents did nothing like that. They just ignored the primaries entirely after getting on the ballot.

Trump doesn't know what the norms are. He has no respect for book-learning on such things as history.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Feb. 12-13, 1530 RV (this is not the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker)

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 44

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallup's showing Trump approvals at 49% before SOTU was factually incorrect,  his corruption is still gonna hurt him in GE, he will be stuck at 46% the entire way

[atheist4thecause]

Gallup's showing Trump approvals at 49% before SOTU was factually incorrect,  his corruption is still gonna hurt him in GE, he will be stuck at 46% the entire way

Oh. What was the actual number then?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

46 percent,  he will be stuck there. The lesson of Gallup is that Trump isnt Bush W or Jeb, Trump only won in 2016, due to running against a scandalized first lady; consequently,  Trump wont have AZ, FL, OH, NC or TX sewn up by Fall, there are many paths to 270