Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

To give Trump credit, he does not drink.

Perhaps he should start.  It might make him lighten up.

[junior chįmp]

Interesting enough that none of Atlas Democrats is talking about the new "TheHill/HarrisX" Poll which pegs the Presidents JA at 49/51. The Hill isn't Trumps favorable Pollster.

The Economy added 225K Jobs in January far more compared to what Analysts were predicting.

I asked this again: Why the heck would you toss out a President with these kind of Job Numbers?

Because the economy has peaked:

https://twitter.com/BittelJulien/status/1225824854911438849?s=19
https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak/status/1225491603537715201?s=19
https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1223240755835293697?s=19

Jobs numbers dont tell you the whole story. Keep in mind that in August 1980, 259k jobs were created and Carter was still thrown out of office.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Approval 53%  (62% after adjustments)
Disapproval: Unknown


Source: Your favorite President
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1226835190569414657

[GeorgiaModerate]

Approval 53%  (62% after adjustments)
Disapproval: Unknown


Source: Your favorite President
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1226835190569414657

As far as I know, the only times Trump has ever hit as high as 53% is a couple of daily Rasmussen samples (one in April, one in September).  Not even Zogby or McLaughlin has had him that high.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Approval 53%  (62% after adjustments)
Disapproval: Unknown


Source: Your favorite President
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1226835190569414657

As far as I know, the only times Trump has ever hit as high as 53% is a couple of daily Rasmussen samples (one in April, one in September).  Not even Zogby or McLaughlin has had him that high.

Trump has access to classified polls that shows him re-elected thanks to Nancy, ha!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Approval 53%  (62% after adjustments)
Disapproval: Unknown


Source: Your favorite President
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1226835190569414657

As far as I know, the only times Trump has ever hit as high as 53% is a couple of daily Rasmussen samples (one in April, one in September).  Not even Zogby or McLaughlin has had him that high.

Notice how he, again, doesn't cite a pollster.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A+ Golden Standard Monmouth University
February 6 to 9, 2020 with 902 adults
margin of error of +/- 3.3


Approval 44 (+1)
Disapproval 50 (-2)

RV:
44 (+1)
51 (-1)



Do you approve or disapprove of the Senate’s decision to acquit Donald Trump and not remove him from the presidency?

Approve   49%
Disapprove   47%


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_021020/

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A+ Golden Standard Monmouth University
February 6 to 9, 2020 with 902 adults
margin of error of +/- 3.3


Approval 44 (+1)
Disapproval 50 (-2)

RV:
44 (+1)
51 (-1)



Do you approve or disapprove of the Senate’s decision to acquit Donald Trump and not remove him from the presidency?

Approve   49%
Disapprove   47%


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_021020/

Seems to reinforce that Trump's approval rating is slowly (and I mean SLOWLY) ticking up, though it doesn't appear that he benefitted from any sort of post SOTU/post acquittal bump.
Polls this week will be somewhat telling.  

[wbrocks67]

A+ Golden Standard Monmouth University
February 6 to 9, 2020 with 902 adults
margin of error of +/- 3.3


Approval 44 (+1)
Disapproval 50 (-2)

RV:
44 (+1)
51 (-1)



Do you approve or disapprove of the Senate’s decision to acquit Donald Trump and not remove him from the presidency?

Approve   49%
Disapprove   47%


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_021020/

It's probably a small sample, but they did not get enough 18-34 year olds in this poll if his approval is only -5 among that group.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A+ Golden Standard Monmouth University
February 6 to 9, 2020 with 902 adults
margin of error of +/- 3.3


Approval 44 (+1)
Disapproval 50 (-2)

RV:
44 (+1)
51 (-1)



Do you approve or disapprove of the Senate’s decision to acquit Donald Trump and not remove him from the presidency?

Approve   49%
Disapprove   47%


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_021020/

It's probably a small sample, but they did not get enough 18-34 year olds in this poll if his approval is only -5 among that group.

Yeah that was the only glaring thing that stuck out to me.  I don't doubt that he has a solid base of support in people aged 35 and up.  But he lost the 18-34 demographic by around 18-21 points in 2016 and, from my observations as someone in that age-bracket, he hasn't inspired very much new support for himself there.  He'd have to make some drastic changes to get even within five points.   Then again, that's purely anecdotal on my part.  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Unskewing 3.0

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Unskewing 3.0

It's what we do

[Hindsight was 2020]

Quinnipiac has his approval at 42-55 with registered voters and 43-53 with likely 
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3655

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

B+ Golden Standard Quinnipiac University





RV:
Approve 43 (/)
53 (+1)

Economy:
Approve 52
Disapprove 44

Acqutal:

Approve   49%
Disapprove   49%

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL

Less than a week after President Trump was acquitted in the Senate impeachment trial and delivered his State of the Union address, the president's job approval continues to match his highest approval number, with 43 percent of voters saying they approve of the job President Trump is doing and 53 percent saying they disapprove. This remains essentially unchanged since mid-December 2019. Broken down along party lines, Republicans approve 89 - 9 percent, Democrats disapprove 94 - 4 percent, and independents are split with 46 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving.

Looking at how President Trump compares to his two predecessors at the same point in their re-election years, voters gave President Obama a slightly negative 45 - 49 percent job approval rating in February of 2012, and President Bush a slightly positive 48 - 45 percent job approval rating in February of 2004. Unlike President Trump, though, both presidents had hit higher approval ratings in their previous years in office. President Obama had hit a high of 59 percent approval in 2009, and President Bush received a high of 83 percent approval in 2001.

"Fresh from acquittal by the Senate, feistily throwing haymakers in every direction, the president presumably has a strong economy to ride all the way to Election Day. The Democrats are facing a reinvigorated and formidable Trump," added Malloy.

THE ECONOMY

President Trump continues to score high marks on his handling of the economy. Voters approve 54 - 42 percent of his handling of the economy, compared to his all-time high of 57 - 38 percent on January 13th, 2020. Republicans approve 97 - 3 percent, Democrats disapprove 81 - 15 percent, and independents approve 59 - 37 percent.

When asked about their personal financial situations, voters say 59 - 20 percent that they are better off financially than they were in 2016, the last presidential election year, while 19 percent say their financial situation is the same. This compares to a December 10th, 2019 survey that found 57 percent were better off, 22 percent were worse off, and 19 percent were the same.

Overall, 70 percent of voters describe the nation's economy as excellent or good and 29 percent describe it as not so good or poor. That is just slightly lower than the all-time high set on December 16th, 2019, when 73 percent said excellent or good and 25 percent said not so good or poor.

https://poll.qu.edu/search-releases/search-results/release-detail?ReleaseID=3655

[junior chįmp]

B+ Golden Standard Quinnipiac University





RV:
Approve 43 (/)
52 (/)

Economy:
Approve 52
Disapprove 44

Acqutal:

Approve   49%
Disapprove   49%

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Quinnipiac has his approval at 42-55 with registered voters and 43-53 with likely  
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3655

42/55 is Favs (all-time-high FWIW)
43/53 is Approvals


Both are RV. QU does only RV.

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So who wants to point that even with these “improvements” Trump’s numbers are still pretty bad and don’t point towards a re-election at all? Like he’s far behind were W was at this point and he’s lagging behind Obama’s 2012 numbers as well. And considering a) W had a really tight re-election and b) Obama saw a drop off from his 08 support that Trump can’t afford in any way that doesn’t speak well for his chances

[Bandit3 the Worker]

At this point, the only major candidate Trump would beat is "Meow Mix Mike" Bloomberg.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1226932714839904256

[junior chįmp]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

Cool, man, you've found a paper that implied that there were 70% that recession would be in 6 month from nov 2019.

that the implied recession probability in the six months after November 2019 is 70%, and for the 12 months after is 86%.

Like I said, 95% of experts think, that will be modest, but still descent growth.
2-percent'ish growth to be more specific.

I know it hurts, but that is what most experts predict  

[Person Man]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

Cool, man, you've found a paper that implied that there were 70% that recession would be in 6 month from nov 2019.

that the implied recession probability in the six months after November 2019 is 70%, and for the 12 months after is 86%.

Like I said, 95% of experts think, that will be modest, but still descent growth.
2-percent'ish growth to be more specific.

I know it hurts, but that is what most experts predict  

So after the tax cut, it’s the same as Obama’s. Maybe that’ll be enough. It won’t be enough to take back the house unless Americans are completely done with the Democratic Party.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

Cool, man, you've found a paper that implied that there were 70% that recession would be in 6 month from nov 2019.

that the implied recession probability in the six months after November 2019 is 70%, and for the 12 months after is 86%.

Like I said, 95% of experts think, that will be modest, but still descent growth.
2-percent'ish growth to be more specific.

I know it hurts, but that is what most experts predict  

So after the tax cut, it’s the same as Obama’s. Maybe that’ll be enough. It won’t be enough to take back the house unless Americans are completely done with the Democratic Party.

And if there's enough opposition to the Democrats that the House flips back to the GOP, control of the House will be the least of the Democrats' troubles.  

[Person Man]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

Cool, man, you've found a paper that implied that there were 70% that recession would be in 6 month from nov 2019.

that the implied recession probability in the six months after November 2019 is 70%, and for the 12 months after is 86%.

Like I said, 95% of experts think, that will be modest, but still descent growth.
2-percent'ish growth to be more specific.

I know it hurts, but that is what most experts predict  

So after the tax cut, it’s the same as Obama’s. Maybe that’ll be enough. It won’t be enough to take back the house unless Americans are completely done with the Democratic Party.

And if there's enough opposition to the Democrats that the House flips back to the GOP, control of the House will be the least of the Democrats' troubles.  

I, for one, will become Independent. At that point, the D brand is pretty much done.

[junior chįmp]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

Cool, man, you've found a paper that implied that there were 70% that recession would be in 6 month from nov 2019.

that the implied recession probability in the six months after November 2019 is 70%, and for the 12 months after is 86%.

Like I said, 95% of experts think, that will be modest, but still descent growth.
2-percent'ish growth to be more specific.

I know it hurts, but that is what most experts predict  

Russian bear, you spoke too soon. Today, the jobs openings number was released and posted the largest loss on record:

https://twitter.com/Not_Jim_Cramer/status/1227297684895207427?s=19

Manufacturing job numbers plunged the most since the Great recession of 2008:

https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1227323269423955968?s=19

Again, this economy is teetering on recession.

https://twitter.com/bondstrategist/status/1227338886000599040?s=19