Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[junior chįmp]

JAN 16-29, 2020
B
Gallup
1,033 A



Approve 49 (+5 since JAN 2-15)
Disapprove 50 (-3)



Gallup's poll is a bit outdated, but >>>

The Jan. 16-29 poll was conducted in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial that will likely result in the president's acquittal. The poll finds 52% of Americans in favor of acquitting Trump and 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.

Acquit 52%
Remove 46%

This is really unreliable.

I would not ignore this poll. As I keep telling Atlas....nobody cares about Trump corruption, stupidity, impeachment, etc...

Politicians are narrowly constrained by economic fundamentals despite everything they do. 2020 cant be a landslide for Dems with a good economy and when people go and vote....they vote a general sense of well being about the economy completely oblivious to everything else going on.

[Matty]

Can we at the very least agree the bolton bombshell didn’t (or hasn’t yet) altered views?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

And so the Great Era of Unskewing has begun...


It's likely an outlier, but Trump has been getting all-time-highs in several pollsters lately. His average is near his (very low) all-time-highs.
Temporal? Perhaps.

[Frenchrepublican]

The Gallup poll is probably a bit skewed toward republicans but you have to be blind or to be a big hack to deny that Trump has improved his situation over the past few months

[pbrower2a]

Gallup has trump at 49

Poll of adults, not likely or even registered voters. 527 Republicans and leaners, 443 Democrats and leaners. Over sampled men.

Tho, not surprising tbh. Nobody cares about political scandals when the economy is good

Watergate.

Nixon at the least was having some successful foreign policy, and he was pushing significant reforms in the economy.

The economy is going great -- incredibly great for the social apex. But if it is only the economy, then why ro middle-class blacks, Hispanics, and Asians hold him in contempt?  -

49% from that sample? Not so great for Trump.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

JAN 16-29, 2020
B
Gallup
1,033 A



Approve 49 (+5 since JAN 2-15)
Disapprove 50 (-3)



Gallup's poll is a bit outdated, but >>>

The Jan. 16-29 poll was conducted in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial that will likely result in the president's acquittal. The poll finds 52% of Americans in favor of acquitting Trump and 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.

Acquit 52%
Remove 46%

This is really unreliable.

I would not ignore this poll. As I keep telling Atlas....nobody cares about Trump corruption, stupidity, impeachment, etc...

Politicians are narrowly constrained by economic fundamentals despite everything they do. 2020 cant be a landslide for Dems with a good economy and when people go and vote....they vote a general sense of well being about the economy completely oblivious to everything else going on.

When Joe Nonpolitical (who didn't vote in 2016 and is skeptical of swamp politicians) turns on FOX News and sees that the economy is doing well, sometimes that's enough to secure his vote.  

"The economy is good? President Trump must be doing something right, then."  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The economy is terrible, so there's really no excuse.

[junior chįmp]

Gallup has trump at 49

Poll of adults, not likely or even registered voters. 527 Republicans and leaners, 443 Democrats and leaners. Over sampled men.

Tho, not surprising tbh. Nobody cares about political scandals when the economy is good

Watergate.

Nixon at the least was having some successful foreign policy, and he was pushing significant reforms in the economy.

The economy is going great -- incredibly great for the social apex. But if it is only the economy, then why ro middle-class blacks, Hispanics, and Asians hold him in contempt?  -

49% from that sample? Not so great for Trump.

At the time the recession of 1973-75 was considered a severe recession. It was the most severe since World War II.

[pbrower2a]

It's a great economy for the economic elites, and a horrible one for non-elites. Social mobility for most people is in only one direction -- down.  Trump made big promises of unprecedented prosperity, and the people who most need that haven't gotten it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The fact that 48% of the sample is Republican throws the whole thing out.

[GP270watch]

 It's obvious his approvals are ticking up. The impeachment fiasco doesn't seem to have swung against him since we're already so polarized. The people angry at Republicans for their lack of oversight were already against them.

 Democrats need to stop obsessing about his approval numbers and get out their vote and find new Democratic voters. Obama won with his GOTV operation not because he was obsessed with his approval numbers.

[pbrower2a]

People are even more intense in their loathing or they feel more need to defend him.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Are we really not going to make a big deal out of the fact they way oversampled Republicans?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

That Gallup poll is trash. Gallup polls are largely outdated anyways. Half of the country does NOT approve of Trump not even close.

[Calthrina950]

Gallup is one of the oldest and longest-established polling companies in this country, and are pioneers in the profession. I wouldn't completely discount what they say here.

[SN2903]

That Gallup poll is trash. Gallup polls are largely outdated anyways. Half of the country does NOT approve of Trump not even close.

Keep thinking that

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Gallup is one of the oldest and longest-established polling companies in this country, and are pioneers in the profession. I wouldn't completely discount what they say here.

48% of Americans are not registered Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, this poll just verifies the Emerson and Rassy polls that already shows Trump not at 40 but around 50

[wbrocks67]

No one is discounting Gallup or the fact that Trump's approval has inched up a bit. But most reliable polls right now have Trump at about 43-44%, nowhere near 50%. Gallup's oversampling of Republicans is ridiculous, and I can't believe they actually let that happen.

The 538 average right now is 43.5%, which sounds about right. Gallup's a mess for the way they set this one up. 48% Republican sample is a joke poll of Rasmussen level.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt gonna lose a 2008 landslide, 278 EC map is there and AZ is prime pickup opportunity.  Dems said they are targeting AZ, as well as PA, WI and PA.

[wbrocks67]

This is why pundits are the worst.

Trump's average approval in the 538 tracker is -9 right now. You know what it was on Election Day 2018? -10. So he's .... 1 point above where he was.

But that ridiculous Gallup poll is going to make tons of headlines when in reality, his approval is not much different than where it was a year and half ago, and mostly thru his tenure.

Which makes Tweets like the ones from Josh and G. Elliott (who I expect more from) particularly egregious.

[pbrower2a]

One thing is different this time: Trump has been in campaign mode even after being elected. So can he pick things up by staying much the same?

I suspect that as usual, Trump rallied his supporters and offended his detractors. After the whitewash of his obvious "high crimes and misdemeanors" I expect him express his vindication.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 2-4, 1500 adults including 1277 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 43 (-4), No 42 (+1)

Remove Trump: Yes 43 (-1), No 41 (-2)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 49 (-1), No 46 (+1)

Remove Trump: Yes 48 (+1), No 45 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 48 (+1), Trump 39 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 41 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 3-4, 1114 adults including 932 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-4)


RV:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 22 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-4)

Kind of a weird disconnect between the overall movement and those with strong feelings.

[junior chįmp]

One thing is different this time: Trump has been in campaign mode even after being elected. So can he pick things up by staying much the same?

I suspect that as usual, Trump rallied his supporters and offended his detractors. After the whitewash of his obvious "high crimes and misdemeanors" I expect him express his vindication.

Lol no

A massive new study reviews the evidence on whether campaigning works. The answer's bleak.