Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

A state we don't see too often:

Tennessee: Mason-Dixon, Jan. 28-30, 625 RV

Approve 57
Disapprove 42

Interesting geographic breakdown:

East Tennessee: 61/38
Middle Tennessee: 56/32
West Tennessee: 53/46

Further right on map => further right voters.

[pbrower2a]

A state we don't see too often:

Tennessee: Mason-Dixon, Jan. 28-30, 625 RV

Approve 57
Disapprove 42

Interesting geographic breakdown:

East Tennessee: 61/38
Middle Tennessee: 56/32
West Tennessee: 53/46

Further right on map => further right voters.

Memphis is the biggest city and strongly D. Middle Tennessee has Nashville, not quite as big; eastern Tennessee has smaller cities (Knoxville, Chattanooga, Bristol, Johnson City). Western Tennessee is Deep South; eastern Tennessee is Mountain South.

Tennessee used to be the most progressive state in the South; that is over.

Not the greatest pollster, but it can't be off that much.

Alabama:  

 https://www.google.fr/amp/s/yellowhammernews.com/poll-doug-jones-reelection-chances-take-hit-if-he-votes-to-remove-trump/amp/

Trump vs Biden : Trump leads 59 to 38 (+21 points)
Trump vs Sanders : Trump leads 59 to 37 (+22 points)

Trump approval rate : 61/37
Against impeachment and removal : 64%

I don't know this pollster, but I have no cause for doubting the result.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[HisGrace]

If only 19% think the trial is being conducted fairly something tells me this will not be widely seen as "vindication".

[pbrower2a]

If only 19% think the trial is being conducted fairly something tells me this will not be widely seen as "vindication".

I concur on this, but I do not predict polling results. Considering that John Bolton, of all people, holds what so far might be the most damning testimony... Senate Republicans will not look good if they block  that. This said, I am a numbers person, and I insist upon seeing numbers. Bolton called the matter "a drug deal", which is about as nasty a description that one can have of a harebrained stratagem.

There is no analogue to the Trump impeachment in American history. With Nixon it was dirty tricks in domestic politics. With Clinton it was over personal sexuality then legal and tolerated. With Trump it is an attempt to sell out an ally for political advantage. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 29-30, 1992 RV (5-day change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50, No 43

Remove Trump: Yes 50, No 43

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If only 19% think the trial is being conducted fairly something tells me this will not be widely seen as "vindication".

FWIW. There are more Republicans than Democrats who think that the trial is being conducted unfairly according to CBS poll.

On balance, more Americans say the impeachment trial is being conducted unfairly than fairly. Four in 10 say it's too soon to say. Both Republicans and Democrats are inclined to think the trial is being conducted unfairly, particularly Republicans.

Both parties in Congress continue to receive negative ratings from the public. Most disapprove of the job congressional Democrats are doing (58%), as well as congressional Republicans (57%).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is at about 45-47% approvals, that's where Emerson and Rassy has it, the polls are close enough for Trump to win a 270-268 map, but no pro growth policies

[Progressive Pessimist]

If only 19% think the trial is being conducted fairly something tells me this will not be widely seen as "vindication".

I don't see it that way. As I see it, for 81% of Americans to agree on anything means that about half of these people are Democrats, liberals, or Trump opponents who rightly see the trial as unfair since it was rushed and avoided considering some evidence. And meanwhile the other half or so are conservatives, Republicans, and Trump flunkies may see it as unfair just because it happened at all.

I am not going to let this number reassure me about anything.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 29-30, 1992 RV (5-day change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50, No 43

Remove Trump: Yes 50, No 43

Compare this was the NBC/WSJ poll out today that has his strongly approve at 36%. Polls are a bit all over the place recently.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 29-30, 1992 RV (5-day change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50, No 43

Remove Trump: Yes 50, No 43

Compare this was the NBC/WSJ poll out today that has his strongly approve at 36%. Polls are a bit all over the place recently.

Even though NBC/WSJ has generally been one of Trump's better polls, that strongly approve number seems unusually high.  Their last 5 polls:

Current: 46/51 (strongly 36/44)
Dec: 44/54 (strongly 33/44)
Late Oct: 45/53 (strongly 31/45)
Early Oct: 43/53 (strongly 29/46)
Sep: 45/53 (strongly 33/46)

Source for the current poll: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6750229-200053-NBCWSJ-January-Poll.html

[Hammy]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 29-30, 1992 RV (5-day change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50, No 43

Remove Trump: Yes 50, No 43

Compare this was the NBC/WSJ poll out today that has his strongly approve at 36%. Polls are a bit all over the place recently.

Even though NBC/WSJ has generally been one of Trump's better polls, that strongly approve number seems unusually high.  Their last 5 polls:

Current: 46/51 (strongly 36/44)
Dec: 44/54 (strongly 33/44)
Late Oct: 45/53 (strongly 31/45)
Early Oct: 43/53 (strongly 29/46)
Sep: 45/53 (strongly 33/46)

Source for the current poll: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6750229-200053-NBCWSJ-January-Poll.html

Could be, as there's been a slight trend upward, the impeachment coverage has taken attention away from the day to day controversies and stupid things Trump is doing, so people who have been paying less attention could be 'well I haven't heard him in the news directly so maybe he's not so bad after all'

[Frenchrepublican]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 29-30, 1992 RV (5-day change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50, No 43

Remove Trump: Yes 50, No 43

Compare this was the NBC/WSJ poll out today that has his strongly approve at 36%. Polls are a bit all over the place recently.

Even though NBC/WSJ has generally been one of Trump's better polls, that strongly approve number seems unusually high.  Their last 5 polls:

Current: 46/51 (strongly 36/44)
Dec: 44/54 (strongly 33/44)
Late Oct: 45/53 (strongly 31/45)
Early Oct: 43/53 (strongly 29/46)
Sep: 45/53 (strongly 33/46)

Source for the current poll: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6750229-200053-NBCWSJ-January-Poll.html

You clearly have over the past two months a small polling improvement for Trump

[junior chįmp]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 29-30, 1992 RV (5-day change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50, No 43

Remove Trump: Yes 50, No 43

Compare this was the NBC/WSJ poll out today that has his strongly approve at 36%. Polls are a bit all over the place recently.

Even though NBC/WSJ has generally been one of Trump's better polls, that strongly approve number seems unusually high.  Their last 5 polls:

Current: 46/51 (strongly 36/44)
Dec: 44/54 (strongly 33/44)
Late Oct: 45/53 (strongly 31/45)
Early Oct: 43/53 (strongly 29/46)
Sep: 45/53 (strongly 33/46)

Source for the current poll: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6750229-200053-NBCWSJ-January-Poll.html

You clearly have over the past two months a small polling improvement for Trump

44% approval with an economy which Trump claims is "the greatest boom in history." What will happen when the economy slows even a little? He's going to get BTFO

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Even though NBC/WSJ has generally been one of Trump's better polls, that strongly approve number seems unusually high.  Their last 5 polls:

Current: 46/51 (strongly 36/44)
Dec: 44/54 (strongly 33/44)
Late Oct: 45/53 (strongly 31/45)
Early Oct: 43/53 (strongly 29/46)
Sep: 45/53 (strongly 33/46)

Source for the current poll: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6750229-200053-NBCWSJ-January-Poll.html

It might depend on Impeachment.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-stuck-to-their-views-on-trump-through-impeachment-trial-11580652187

Together, the findings suggest that impeachment hasn’t changed one durable feature of Mr. Trump’s presidency: In a turbulent political environment, Americans’ views of him remain fixed.

The poll, in fact, found some signs that the president’s political standing has strengthened in recent months, due largely to a more energized Republican Party base.

Mr. Trump’s job approval in the January poll stood at 46%, with 51% disapproving, in line with results throughout the Trump presidency. But the share who “strongly approve’’ of his job performance hit its highest mark, at 36%. Approval among independents rose to its highest level since the summer.

A separate measure found that while half of the country holds a negative overall view of Mr. Trump, 43% of voters view him favorably—the largest share since his first month in office.

Moreover, Mr. Trump has gained ground in test match-ups against Democratic candidates, though he still trails his three leading potential rivals.

To Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who conducted the survey with Republican Bill McInturff, the results draw a picture of stability for Mr. Trump, even after an impeachment process that is expected to end this week with a Senate acquittal. “America’s attitudes about Donald Trump have hardly budged,’’ he said.

Mr. McInturff said impeachment had energized Republican voters, to the president’s benefit. “This is Trump’s strongest poll, I think, in three years,” he said.

One reason impeachment has had little impact is that Americans view the proceedings with skepticism, pollsters said. When voters were asked to supply a phrase to describe the trial, one word surfaced prominently among members of both parties: sham.

Nearly 60% in the survey, conducted Jan. 26-29, said that Democrats in the House and Senate were acting on impeachment out of political considerations, while 37% said they were focused on upholding the Constitution. The results were similar for Republican lawmakers..

[Brittain33]

That rallying effect was always going to happen as we got closer to the election.

[Matty]

Gallup has trump at 49

[wbrocks67]

Gallup has trump at 49

There's numerous parts of the poll that make it clear the R sample is very high. Also, somehow he's at nearly 50% approval with only 42% approval of Independents.

The Republican Party's image is higher than the D's, and the Rs are at about 50%. 50% approval for the Republican party.

Meanwhile, usual Ds have a bit of an advantage on where people identify. Rs at 48%, Ds at 44%. Again, clear outlier.

[junior chįmp]

Gallup has trump at 49

Poll of adults, not likely or even registered voters. 527 Republicans and leaners, 443 Democrats and leaners. Over sampled men.

Tho, not surprising tbh. Nobody cares about political scandals when the economy is good

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup has trump at 49

There's numerous parts of the poll that make it clear the R sample is very high. Also, somehow he's at nearly 50% approval with only 42% approval of Independents.

The Republican Party's image is higher than the D's, and the Rs are at about 50%. 50% approval for the Republican party.

Meanwhile, usual Ds have a bit of an advantage on where people identify. Rs at 48%, Ds at 44%. Again, clear outlier.

Yeah that doesn’t make sense

[Matty]

Even if you adjust For the biased sample, it still likely would have been a decent poll for trump

[libertpaulian]

Gallup has trump at 49

Wasn't Gallup the same pollster who said Romney would win the popular vote AND the electoral college in 2012?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

JAN 16-29, 2020
B
Gallup
1,033 A



Approve 49 (+5 since JAN 2-15)
Disapprove 50 (-3)



Gallup's poll is a bit outdated, but >>>

The Jan. 16-29 poll was conducted in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial that will likely result in the president's acquittal. The poll finds 52% of Americans in favor of acquitting Trump and 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.

Acquit 52%
Remove 46%

[Bandit3 the Worker]

JAN 16-29, 2020
B
Gallup
1,033 A



Approve 49 (+5 since JAN 2-15)
Disapprove 50 (-3)



Gallup's poll is a bit outdated, but >>>

The Jan. 16-29 poll was conducted in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial that will likely result in the president's acquittal. The poll finds 52% of Americans in favor of acquitting Trump and 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.

Acquit 52%
Remove 46%

This is really unreliable.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That R sample is way too high...

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Even if you adjust For the biased sample, it still likely would have been a decent poll for trump

I think it's pretty clear that Trump's numbers are slowly (and I mean SLOWLY) edging upwards.  He'll likely see a bit of a bump from the SOTU because it's one of the only forums where he acts "presidential".