Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Impeachment is gonna be over soon and Trump polls are gonna replicate the Rassy, Emerson polls showing his approvals in 45-47% range, not 41%

[Person Man]

Impeachment is gonna be over soon and Trump polls are gonna replicate the Rassy, Emerson polls showing his approvals in 45-47% range, not 41%

Where was he before impeachment?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 26-28, 1500 adults including 1182 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 47 (+2), No 41 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 44 (+1), No 43 (+1)


RV:

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50 (+2), No 45 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 47 (+2), No 46 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (+2), Trump 41 (-3)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+4), R 39 (-4)

Thank God the GCB number bounced back.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

This is not how percentages works: -15 is only 40% of the population. Thus, independents' contribution to the population margin is 40% of 15, or six percentage points. The other three percentage points are due to there being more Democrats than Republicans.

This was their sample:

REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 31%
Democrat 34
Independent 26
Other/DK/NA 10

Now, I don't know what lump the "Other" ones go into. But Democrats outsampled Republicans. So that means Dems would get an even bigger portion. So if there are more Democrats than Rs, but both are at like 94/4, and then Independents are 38/53, there's no way that outcome would come to 43/52 in the end. I'm just confused by their math.

43/52 is almost exactly what those numbers come out to (assuming Other/DK/NA follows nearly the same margin as Independent).

R: +90% * 31% = +28%
D: -90% * 34% = -31%
I/O: -15% * 36% = -5.5%

The total population margin is +28-31-5.5 or underwater by 8.5%.

It looks like magic!

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 26-28, 1500 adults including 1182 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 47 (+2), No 41 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 44 (+1), No 43 (+1)


RV:

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50 (+2), No 45 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 47 (+2), No 46 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (+2), Trump 41 (-3)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+4), R 39 (-4)

Thank God the GCB number bounced back.

Last week sure looked like an outlier at the time.

[pbrower2a]

TEXAS:

Q6. How well do you think Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Is he doing a very good job, somewhat good job,
somewhat poor job, or very poor job?
Percent
Very good job 27
Somewhat good job 20
Somewhat poor job 16
Very poor job 36
Don’t know 1

I am treating "very good"as "strongly approve", "somewhat good" as "approve", "somewhat poor" as "disapprove", and "very poor" as "strongly disapprove". There is no rhetorically-ambiguous "fair" category as in the widely-deprecated EGFP polls.

    https://www.texaslyceum.org/assets/docs/Poll/2020/2020_Lyceum_Crosstabs_DAY1.pdf

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1222615871073460226

[junior chįmp]

Back down it goes:

Ipsos (January 27 and 28)

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 55%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Back down it goes:

Ipsos (January 27 and 28)

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 55%

I posted that one yesterday morning.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1222615871073460226

This seems to be pulled out of a hat and says nothing more than add 2 points to his net approval to get his net election day vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Jan. 16-22, 1212 adults (change from Nov.)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

[pbrower2a]

So much for the Trump "surge".

If I am to guess the result of the impeachment process, it is that it is convincing people largely of what they believed beforehand.  Approval of the President somewhere between 38% and 43%  and disapproval slightly (but decisively and predictably!) above 50% is the norm.

Republicans are in poor shape for winning back the House, as the general ballot suggests much the same now as it did early in 2018. Republicans have only one easy pick-up in the Senate based on location (Doug Jones in Alabama) but plenty of potential losses in the Senate. I see Collins, Gardner, and McSalley as goners, and I cannot decide who makes the partisan split.   

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So much for the Trump "surge".

If I am to guess the result of the impeachment process, it is that it is convincing people largely of what they believed beforehand.  Approval of the President somewhere between 38% and 43%  and disapproval slightly (but decisively and predictably!) above 50% is the norm.

Republicans are in poor shape for winning back the House, as the general ballot suggests much the same now as it did early in 2018. Republicans have only one easy pick-up in the Senate based on location (Doug Jones in Alabama) but plenty of potential losses in the Senate. I see Collins, Gardner, and McSalley as goners, and I cannot decide who makes the partisan split.  

For as much talk as you hear about how impeachment will "doom the Dems" in 2020 and "America is seeing through this farce", it really hasn't moved the needle.  

Mind you, the Democrats are surely disappointed that there hasn't been much aggregate movement against Trump, but I'm skeptical of claims that Trump's approval will start surging any day now.

This idea that nothing sinks Trump, that nothing can touch him -- the opposite seems to be true as well.

As for the Senate, I believe Collins will survive.  But McSally is in a unique and handicapped position: Kelly can start off any attack ad with "She lost your vote in 2018.  So why is Martha McSally in the Senate?"

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania F&M Poll

Favorability: 41/55 (-14)

Job Performance?
Excellent/Good: 38%
Fair/Poor: 61%

Deserve Re-Election? 41% yes, 57% no

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/562535870732261549-f-m-poll-release-january-2020.pdf

[pbrower2a]

TEXAS:

Q6. How well do you think Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Is he doing a very good job, somewhat good job,
somewhat poor job, or very poor job?
Percent
Very good job 27
Somewhat good job 20
Somewhat poor job 16
Very poor job 36
Don’t know 1

I am treating "very good"as "strongly approve", "somewhat good" as "approve", "somewhat poor" as "disapprove", and "very poor" as "strongly disapprove". There is no rhetorically-ambiguous "fair" category as in the widely-deprecated EGFP polls.

    https://www.texaslyceum.org/assets/docs/Poll/2020/2020_Lyceum_Crosstabs_DAY1.pdf

I call this 47-52. I have seen polls like this of Texas before. If President Trump and Republicans must defend Texas, then they have one gigantic... Canada-sized problem in the upcoming election.

Pennsylvania F&M Poll

Favorability: 41/55 (-14)

Job Performance?
Excellent/Good: 38%
Fair/Poor: 61%

Deserve Re-Election? 41% yes, 57% no

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/562535870732261549-f-m-poll-release-january-2020.pdf

    

I do not use EGregiously Flawed Polls ---but "deserve re-election" is even more explicit about the President's chances of winning any particular state than approval and disapproval. As I have said before I am now more interested in expressing the chance that Trump wins or loses any single state.

Trump can hardly lose if he wins Pennsylvania, but he is going to lose in a landslide in the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania by double digits. If he loses nothing except Texas that he won in 2016, then he still loses the Electoral College 270-268. Of course Trump loses North Carolina of Florida before losing Texas.

Trump wins of these two states were 52-43 (Texas) and 48-47 (Pennsylvania) in 2016... these two polls suggest  almost a 9% shift in the vote in those two states. Together they comprise more than 1/10 of the total electoral vote; they are very different in their ethnic composition and economic realities. I'm not calling a collapse yet, but collapses look much like this. 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Voter enthusiasm swings towards the GOP: https://apnews.com/4daf1b154eeff75b97b886e2fe8c1d29

Basically, Trump will equal or better his electoral landslide of 2016.

[wbrocks67]

Voter enthusiasm swings towards the GOP: https://apnews.com/4daf1b154eeff75b97b886e2fe8c1d29

Basically, Trump will equal or better his electoral landslide of 2016.

The Democrats are in a major primary right now. It's not an apples to apples comparison.

And even so, that's one poll. There have been numerous other polls to show Democrats interest in the election higher than Rs,.

[Inmate Trump]

Voter enthusiasm swings towards the GOP: https://apnews.com/4daf1b154eeff75b97b886e2fe8c1d29

Basically, Trump will equal or better his electoral landslide of 2016.

Electoral landslide?

Um....no honey...that's not what an electoral landslide looks like.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Voter enthusiasm swings towards the GOP: https://apnews.com/4daf1b154eeff75b97b886e2fe8c1d29

Basically, Trump will equal or better his electoral landslide of 2016.

66% of Democrats are anxious about the election compared to just 46% for the Republicans. That's a big plus imo.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Voter enthusiasm swings towards the GOP: https://apnews.com/4daf1b154eeff75b97b886e2fe8c1d29

Basically, Trump will equal or better his electoral landslide of 2016.

66% of Democrats are anxious about the election compared to just 46% for the Republicans. That's a big plus imo.

Republicans should know better than anyone that fear is effective.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So much for the Trump "surge".

If I am to guess the result of the impeachment process, it is that it is convincing people largely of what they believed beforehand.  Approval of the President somewhere between 38% and 43%  and disapproval slightly (but decisively and predictably!) above 50% is the norm.

Republicans are in poor shape for winning back the House, as the general ballot suggests much the same now as it did early in 2018. Republicans have only one easy pick-up in the Senate based on location (Doug Jones in Alabama) but plenty of potential losses in the Senate. I see Collins, Gardner, and McSalley as goners, and I cannot decide who makes the partisan split.  

For as much talk as you hear about how impeachment will "doom the Dems" in 2020 and "America is seeing through this farce", it really hasn't moved the needle.  

Mind you, the Democrats are surely disappointed that there hasn't been much aggregate movement against Trump, but I'm skeptical of claims that Trump's approval will start surging any day now.

This idea that nothing sinks Trump, that nothing can touch him -- the opposite seems to be true as well.

As for the Senate, I believe Collins will survive.  But McSally is in a unique and handicapped position: Kelly can start off any attack ad with "She lost your vote in 2018.  So why is Martha McSally in the Senate?"

It is a bit of straw man.

I think most people who was saying "doom the Dems" expected Trump's approval to go down under impeachment trial (= a lot of scrutiny) and went upp go upp after acquittal (= there have been nothing a real bad there). So it is actually a good news for Trump that his approval has not go down at all, possibly slightly upp.


Caveat 1. There haven't been that much polls. May be just noise.
Caveat 2. Most of these predictions was done before Bolton-thing, that is when there were no drama about the witnesses and quick acquittal was a likely outcome. Bolton has complicated the things a lot.


Still, on average I expect it help Trump and Senators. Removal is pretty unpopular in Battleground states.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So much for the Trump "surge".

If I am to guess the result of the impeachment process, it is that it is convincing people largely of what they believed beforehand.  Approval of the President somewhere between 38% and 43%  and disapproval slightly (but decisively and predictably!) above 50% is the norm.

Republicans are in poor shape for winning back the House, as the general ballot suggests much the same now as it did early in 2018. Republicans have only one easy pick-up in the Senate based on location (Doug Jones in Alabama) but plenty of potential losses in the Senate. I see Collins, Gardner, and McSalley as goners, and I cannot decide who makes the partisan split.  

For as much talk as you hear about how impeachment will "doom the Dems" in 2020 and "America is seeing through this farce", it really hasn't moved the needle.  

Mind you, the Democrats are surely disappointed that there hasn't been much aggregate movement against Trump, but I'm skeptical of claims that Trump's approval will start surging any day now.

This idea that nothing sinks Trump, that nothing can touch him -- the opposite seems to be true as well.

As for the Senate, I believe Collins will survive.  But McSally is in a unique and handicapped position: Kelly can start off any attack ad with "She lost your vote in 2018.  So why is Martha McSally in the Senate?"

It is a bit of straw man.

I think most people who was saying "doom the Dems" expected Trump's approval to go down under impeachment trial (= a lot of scrutiny) and went upp go upp after acquittal (= there have been nothing a real bad there). So it is actually a good news for Trump that his approval has not go down at all, possibly slightly upp.


Caveat 1. There haven't been that much polls. May be just noise.
Caveat 2. Most of these predictions was done before Bolton-thing, that is when there were no drama about the witnesses and quick acquittal was a likely outcome. Bolton has complicated the things a lot.


Still, on average I expect it help Trump and Senators. Removal is pretty unpopular in Battleground states.

Has there been any recent polls from battleground states?

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News, Jan. 28-29, 1202 adults

Approve 43
Disapprove 51

R: 89/10
D: 9/87
I: 40/49

Is there anything Donald Trump could do or say as president that could change your mind about his job performance, or not?

Yes 28
No 70

R: 29/69
D: 22/76
I: 31/65

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Has there been any recent polls from battleground states?

Don't think so, but it is plausible, no?

538 prefers all voters. Removal +5
RCP prefers RV. It's a tie.


We know that swing-states (Trump's era) are usually 3-5% to the right of the nation.

What does people think on this question?

On balance, more Americans say the impeachment trial is being conducted unfairly than fairly. Four in 10 say it's too soon to say. Both Republicans and Democrats are inclined to think the trial is being conducted unfairly, particularly Republicans.

Both parties in Congress continue to receive negative ratings from the public. Most disapprove of the job congressional Democrats are doing (58%), as well as congressional Republicans (57%).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-impeachment-trial-americans-oppose-removal-ibd-tipp/


JAN 23-30, 2020
A/B
IBD/TIPP
908   A   


All Adults:



Approve    44% (+1 since JAN 3-11, 2020)
Disapprove 51% (-)

Removal:
Yes 47%(-)
No  51% (+1)