Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

FWIW, Trump gets 45.6% on RCP and 44.9% among "voters" on 538. Highest since Spring 2017.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Republicans are rallying around the Great and Infallible Leader whose political demise is the ruin of all that they cherish in politics.   

[Person Man]

FWIW, Trump gets 45.6% on RCP and 44.9% among "voters" on 538. Highest since Spring 2017.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

This is all based on who they expect to vote. If Trump wins, its because people don't vote. If Trump loses, its because the pollsters were "unskewing" The polls.

[Cinemark]

I think the one two punch of ABC and Emerson have really moved the aggregates. But neither Monmouth or Fox showed any movement in Trump's direction so I think we'll revert back to his normal range soon.

[pbrower2a]

At this point nobody can predict what constitutes a "likely voter".

[junior chįmp]

Quinnipiac 1/28

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac 1/28

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

Same as their two previous polls.

[junior chįmp]

Quinnipiac 1/28

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

Same as their two previous polls.

This is actually tied for his highest approval in Quinnipiac polls lol

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Quinnipiac 1/28

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

Same as their two previous polls.

This is actually tied for his highest approval in Quinnipiac polls lol

Yeah. So it made Trump approval go up slightly in 538 to 45.1% from this

FWIW, Trump gets 45.6% on RCP and 44.9% among "voters" on 538. Highest since Spring 2017.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

538 adjusted it to 46/50




Removal:
Yes 47 (+1 since JAN. 8-12)
No 48 (-)

On the question of whether President Trump should be removed from office, voters remain divided, as 48 percent say the Senate should not remove President Trump from office, while 47 percent say the Senate should. That compares to a January 13 poll, conducted prior to the start of the Senate impeachment trial, in which 48 percent said the president should not be removed from office, while 46 percent said he should.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

At this point nobody can predict what constitutes a "likely voter".

It is basically only Junk Rasmussen that uses LV screen and their contribution to the average (especially for 538, but it may be gives extra 0.1-0.3 for RCP) is pretty small . But you already knew it, didn't you?

[wbrocks67]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

[pbrower2a]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans.  

Seems that you have a large portion of independents who say "oh, I'm a registered independent" but have voted for the same party for decades. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Jan. 27-28, 1118 adults including 950 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)


RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

[Person Man]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans.  

Seems that you have a large portion of independents who say "oh, I'm a registered independent" but have voted for the same party for decades. 

I like to say that group is made up of two people: Those who claim to be "independent" because it makes them feel that they came up with their own ideas of how things should be and that one party agrees with them 90% of the time and one doesn't and those who are "independent" so as to move the Overton window in their direction by pretending that the side they end up voting for  is "more moderate" and the other side is unreasonable.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans.  

Seems that you have a large portion of independents who say "oh, I'm a registered independent" but have voted for the same party for decades. 

I like to say that group is made up of two people: Those who claim to be "independent" because it makes them feel that they came up with their own ideas of how things should be and that one party agrees with them 90% of the time and one doesn't and those who are "independent" so as to move the Overton window in their direction by pretending that the side they end up voting for  is "more moderate" and the other side is unreasonable.

I'm almost certain there are those who like to claim they are "independent" because it makes them seem more nuanced.  And to all of my green avs here, this is not a shot at you.
 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only polls that really matter are polls taken right before election day and Trump isnt at 41% approvals he is at 45-47% approval. Polls need to be taken with a grain of salt

[Person Man]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans.  

Seems that you have a large portion of independents who say "oh, I'm a registered independent" but have voted for the same party for decades. 

I like to say that group is made up of two people: Those who claim to be "independent" because it makes them feel that they came up with their own ideas of how things should be and that one party agrees with them 90% of the time and one doesn't and those who are "independent" so as to move the Overton window in their direction by pretending that the side they end up voting for  is "more moderate" and the other side is unreasonable.

I'm almost certain there are those who like to claim they are "independent" because it makes them seem more nuanced.  And to all of my green avs here, this is not a shot at you.
 

There are those on here that do have genuinely "independent" views that are green or even yellow avs. There are those on here that don't. Both Republican Independents and Democrat Independents.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I'm almost certain there are those who like to claim they are "independent" because it makes them seem more nuanced.  And to all of my green avs here, this is not a shot at you.

Narrator: she was a very polite girl, but it was indeed a shot at them.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans.  

Seems that you have a large portion of independents who say "oh, I'm a registered independent" but have voted for the same party for decades. 

I like to say that group is made up of two people: Those who claim to be "independent" because it makes them feel that they came up with their own ideas of how things should be and that one party agrees with them 90% of the time and one doesn't and those who are "independent" so as to move the Overton window in their direction by pretending that the side they end up voting for  is "more moderate" and the other side is unreasonable.

I'm almost certain there are those who like to claim they are "independent" because it makes them seem more nuanced.  And to all of my green avs here, this is not a shot at you.
 

There are those on here that do have genuinely "independent" views that are green or even yellow avs. There are those on here that don't. Both Republican Independents and Democrat Independents.

Then again, I'm likely the biggest RINO on here so -- what do I know?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

This is not how percentages works: -15 is only 40% of the population. Thus, independents' contribution to the population margin is 40% of 15, or six percentage points. The other three percentage points are due to there being more Democrats than Republicans.

[RI]

Don't know if this was posted, but Trump approval is up to 57-38 in Utah.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

This is not how percentages works: -15 is only 40% of the population. Thus, independents' contribution to the population margin is 40% of 15, or six percentage points. The other three percentage points are due to there being more Democrats than Republicans.

This was their sample:

REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 31%
Democrat 34
Independent 26
Other/DK/NA 10

Now, I don't know what lump the "Other" ones go into. But Democrats outsampled Republicans. So that means Dems would get an even bigger portion. So if there are more Democrats than Rs, but both are at like 94/4, and then Independents are 38/53, there's no way that outcome would come to 43/52 in the end. I'm just confused by their math.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 26-28, 1500 adults including 1182 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 47 (+2), No 41 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 44 (+1), No 43 (+1)


RV:

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50 (+2), No 45 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 47 (+2), No 46 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (+2), Trump 41 (-3)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+4), R 39 (-4)

[Sir Mohamed]

Don't know if this was posted, but Trump approval is up to 57-38 in Utah.

UT will for sure be state that most sharply shifts GOP in the 2020 election.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

This is not how percentages works: -15 is only 40% of the population. Thus, independents' contribution to the population margin is 40% of 15, or six percentage points. The other three percentage points are due to there being more Democrats than Republicans.

This was their sample:

REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 31%
Democrat 34
Independent 26
Other/DK/NA 10

Now, I don't know what lump the "Other" ones go into. But Democrats outsampled Republicans. So that means Dems would get an even bigger portion. So if there are more Democrats than Rs, but both are at like 94/4, and then Independents are 38/53, there's no way that outcome would come to 43/52 in the end. I'm just confused by their math.

43/52 is almost exactly what those numbers come out to (assuming Other/DK/NA follows nearly the same margin as Independent).

R: +90% * 31% = +28%
D: -90% * 34% = -31%
I/O: -15% * 36% = -5.5%

The total population margin is +28-31-5.5 or underwater by 8.5%.