Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

(An intervening poll of Georgia changes the methodology that the Atlanta Journal-Constitution uses. The new polling now adjusts for education, and as elsewhere formal education still favors anybody but Trump. Georgia is decidedly below average in formal education, and the adjustment explains how Georgia has been a surprise as a state for which a potential Trump loss has been possible. Trump approval is 51-48, but the Democrats seem to have advantages in polling, if not by much. I call that a tie.  

Multiple polls from the Rust Belt:

OH (Dem 43-Trump 39)
PA (Dem 47-Trump 37)
MI (Dem 47-Trump 34)
WI (Dem 48-Trump 34)

I am already morphing from absolute approval to the chance of re-election, the latter being my definitive objection. Trump is not winning any one of these states with such numbers. He needs support in the mid-40's to have a reasonable chance of winning any one of these states, and he does not come close to that even in Ohio, a state that he won by high single digits in 2016. Trump needs to win two of these states to get re-elected, three of them if he loses Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, or North Carolina, and likely all four should he lose Florida.    

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher




[/quote]

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The very honorable Pollster of Emerson has a new data-point>>>>

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/national-2020-biden-and-sanders-battle-in-two-way-race-for-democratic-nomination


RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 48 (-1)




Women vs Men:




As you probably already know, women votes depend more on average on whoever "society" thinks they should vote for. If women could resist these social norms and become more "selfish", Trump would be much more popular

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approval with Women being 57-38 lines up with most recent polls. His approval with Men being the same absolutely does not. Emerson continues to fail.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The very honorable Pollster of Emerson has a new data-point>>>>

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/national-2020-biden-and-sanders-battle-in-two-way-race-for-democratic-nomination


RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 48 (-1)




Women vs Men:




As you probably already know, women votes depend more on average on whoever "society" thinks they should vote for. If women could resist these social norms and become more "selfish", Trump would be much more popular

(Or a sizable chunk of us just plain don't like him)

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1220812505045446656

[AnonymousUser225]

Approval is up a lot right now, especially among registered voters. That poll by ABC/WashPost has him at 47/50.

[Dr. Arch]

Approval is up a lot right now, especially among registered voters. That poll by ABC/WashPost has him at 47/50.

lol?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

As the Dems go low, Trump’s approvals go high!

[Cinemark]

Approval is up a lot right now, especially among registered voters. That poll by ABC/WashPost has him at 47/50.

ABC polls tend to be very jumpy, but since this is their first poll in 3 months, it looks especially drastic.

[Matty]

It is absolutely stunning to me that the Ukraine impeachment stuff has had zero effect on his numbers

[Skill and Chance]

It is absolutely stunning to me that the Ukraine impeachment stuff has had zero effect on his numbers

Is it?  Clinton's approvals rose during his impeachment investigation.  Nixon's collapsed, but that arguably had more to do with gas lines and the stock market losing almost half its value that year.

[The Dowager Mod]

It's so cute when people think they can sneak a sock past us. 

[Cinemark]

It is absolutely stunning to me that the Ukraine impeachment stuff has had zero effect on his numbers

I'm not sure how many times I have to post this:

Trump is always at or around -10. Sometimes he goes above that, sometimes he goes below that. But his numbers always return to the -10 range.

[Gracile]

It is absolutely stunning to me that the Ukraine impeachment stuff has had zero effect on his numbers

It speaks to how polarized our nation is on the whole

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

He’s been hitting some really strong numbers recently - many upper 40s over the last couple weeks.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

It is absolutely stunning to me that the Ukraine impeachment stuff has had zero effect on his numbers

I'm not sure how many times I have to post this:

Trump is always at or around -10. Sometimes he goes above that, sometimes he goes below that. But his numbers always return to the -10 range.

He was considerably below that for his first 14 months before climbing up to the -10 range he has been steady at since then. The only notable thing I can think of in that time frame to account for the increase would be his much-hyped but currently near-complete failure negotiations with North Korea.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact it's a sham trial and the cover up is Biden. It had no effect in the House impeachment inquiry 😕😕😕

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Since nobody posted ABC numbers yet, I will



Date: JAN 20-23, 2020
A+ (538) ABC News/Washington Post


All Adults:

Approve 44 (+6 since OCT 2019)
Disapprove 51 (-7)


RV:

Approve 47 (+8)
Disapprove 50 (-9)


Economy (RV):
Approve   58
Disapprove 36


Remove(RV)

Remove 45 (strongly - 38)
NOT remove 51 (strongly - 43)





We'll soon get Gold-Standard polls from Fox and Quinnipiac. We'll see how outlier'ish this one was.

[BigSerg]

Since nobody posted ABC numbers yet, I will



Date: JAN 20-23, 2020
A+ (538) ABC News/Washington Post


All Adults:

Approve 44 (+6 since OCT 2019)
Disapprove 51 (-7)


RV:

Approve 47 (+8)
Disapprove 50 (-9)


Economy (RV):
Approve   58
Disapprove 36


Remove(RV)

Remove 45 (strongly - 38)
NOT remove 51 (strongly - 43)





We'll soon get Gold-Standard polls from Fox and Quinnipiac. We'll see how outlier'ish this one was.

Yayyyyy!!!!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

JAN 19-22, 2020
A-
Fox News
1,005   RV   
Approve      45% (-)
Disapprove   54% (+1)



Summary Table Among Registered Voters
Approve Disapprove (Don’t know)
The economy 56% 38 6
Guns 42% 51 7
Immigration 41% 56 3
Foreign policy 40% 56 4
Health care 38% 54 7
Government spending 37% 55 7
Race relations 37% 56 8
The environment 35% 57 8


Remove:
Yes 50 (-)
No 44 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wanna bet that Trump tweets something unfavorable about Fox polling again?

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Hampshire: NBC/Marist, Jan. 20-23, 2604 adults including 2223 RV

Adults:

Approve 42
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 43


RV:

Approve 42
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 46

GDB: D 47, R 42

Buttigieg 51, Trump 41
Biden 51, Trump 43
Sanders 51, Trump 43
Warren 48, Trump 44

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: NBC/Marist, Jan. 20-23, 2604 adults including 2223 RV

Adults:

Approve 42
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 43


RV:

Approve 42
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 46

GDB: D 47, R 42

Buttigieg 51, Trump 41
Biden 51, Trump 43
Sanders 51, Trump 43
Warren 48, Trump 44

A warning sign for the President: a state that he barely lost in 2016 is basically out of reach for him. Obama never won any state in which the disapproval went above 51%, and Obama was a far-better campaigner. Sure, Trump holds rallies reminiscent of Fidel Castro in Cuba... but we still have a democratic tradition here in America.

Buttigieg, Biden, and Sanders are all above 50%, and Warren is close to the magic 50% while Trump is far behind. 

[Person Man]

New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and MAYBE Maine are swinging back. It really looks like it will all come down to Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Maybe North Carolina and Florida but Trump might do very well there and probably will in Georgia too.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

FWIW, Trump gets 45.6% on RCP and 44.9% among "voters" on 538. Highest since Spring 2017.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html