Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wisconsin: Fox News, Jan. 5-8, 1504 voters (change from Oct.)

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Remove Trump?  Yes 44, No 48

Biden 46, Trump 41
Sanders 46, Trump 42
Warren 44, Trump 42
Buttigieg 42, Trump 41ac


Nevada: Fox News, Jan. 5-8, 1505 voters

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Remove Trump?  Yes 46, No 47

Biden 47, Trump 39
Sanders 46, Trump 41
Warren 43, Trump 42
Buttigieg 41, Trump 40

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Realistic numbers from Nevada? Pinch me.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin: Fox News, Jan. 5-8, 1504 voters (change from Oct.)

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Remove Trump?  Yes 44, No 48

Biden 46, Trump 41
Sanders 46, Trump 42
Warren 44, Trump 42
Buttigieg 42, Trump 41ac


Nevada: Fox News, Jan. 5-8, 1505 voters

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Remove Trump?  Yes 46, No 47

Biden 47, Trump 39
Sanders 46, Trump 41
Warren 43, Trump 42
Buttigieg 41, Trump 40

Trump is winning neither state with these numbers now. Paradoxically the PPP polling is likely more R-leaning than the polls for FoX News. Say what you want about FoX News... its polls are very good.

My criterion is really the chance of winning for a Democrat or Trump... that Trump leads everyone in Iowa puts it in the blue category despite being a tie in approval and that Trump at worst (for him) ties the strongest Democrat suggests that Arizona is effectively a tie.

Glengarriff, Michigan: Trump approval 47-49. But every Democrat beats Trump. Go figure.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1215447325671411716

[Cinemark]

Morning Consult usually has extreme outliers like that.

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult usually has extreme outliers like that.

Such partially explains why I keep Morning Consult polls separate from everything else.  

Morning Consult, December '19:

Trump advantage 10% or higher (really dark for 20%+)
Trump advantage 5% to 9%
Trump advantage 1% to 4%
tie -- no advantage (white)
Trump disadvantage 1-4%
Trump disadvantage 5% to 9%
Trump disadvantage 10% or more (really dark for 20%+)

Medium-to-deep red seem to give Trump a loss outside of the margin of error for 284 electoral votes. 147 are on the bubble (I can in no way see that NE-03 goes any way except for Trump) as they will be decided by 4% or less. That leaves 117 sure-things for him.

[emailking]

I hope you guys aren't forgetting about the Trump thing when reporting these numbers.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216005816710500352

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I hope you guys aren't forgetting about the Trump thing when reporting these numbers.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216005816710500352

Of course.  Full dissertations have been written about the "Trump Thing".

[Inmate Trump]

Which poll is he looking at?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Which poll is he looking at?

I'm not aware of any recent poll with Trump as high as 53.  He hit 51 for a few days, and 52 for one, in Rasmussen during the pre-Christmas bump.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Which poll is he looking at?

I'm not aware of any recent poll with Trump as high as 53.  He hit 51 for a few days, and 52 for one, in Rasmussen during the pre-Christmas bump.

Why not make up polls?

A poll recently found that GeorgiaModerate would beat Trump 73%-24%. It is a shame that you decided not to run.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Which poll is he looking at?

I'm not aware of any recent poll with Trump as high as 53.  He hit 51 for a few days, and 52 for one, in Rasmussen during the pre-Christmas bump.

Why not make up polls?

A poll recently found that GeorgiaModerate would beat Trump 73%-24%. It is a shame that you decided not to run.

 If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do we keep going by these approvals, Trump approvals arent 42 it's in the mid 40s, where Obama and Bush W were. But Obama had elevated unemployment

[pbrower2a]

Why do we keep going by these approvals, Trump approvals arent 42 it's in the mid 40s, where Obama and Bush W were. But Obama had elevated unemployment

1. Trump approvals have been remarkably consistent nationwide -- and 42% is near the top of his range.That is lower than the norm for either Dubya or Obama.

2. Obama took over as President when the economy was in a dangerous meltdown.  As he was inaugurated, securities prices had declined as a percentage about as much as securities prices had fallen in a year and a half following the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929. Securities prices are usually a good proxy for economic health. Unemployment is a lagging indicator; employers are slow to fire and hire. They are unduly optimistic before a  serious meltdown and unduly pessimistic as a meltdown abates. Not until they find themselves with unsalable inventories or with lagging sales do they cut employees. Dubya rode a speculative boom that would not show any signs of going awry until after he was re-elected.

3. Obama had whacked the worst non-state terrorist in world history (OK, he gave the credit to the CIA and Seal Team 6, but obviously he signed off on it); Dubya had early successes in the Second Gulf War, including the arrest of Satan Hussein. 

4. Trump is making huge blunders as a politician. He isn't winning over people to his side. His behavior is erratic. He has by far the most corrupt and chaotic Presidency ever. His foreign policy is a huge break with the standard to which Americans have been accustomed to since Ronald Reagan; he makes Barack Obama look by contrast as an arch-conservative having a mailed fist under the velvet glove. 

This cartoon gets it:

 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Jan. 8-12, 1562 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 34 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: 51/46
Remove Trump: 46/48

Was killing Soleimani the right action to take?

Right action 45
Wrong action 41

Should Trump consult with Congress if he plans to launch more military strikes in the Middle East?

Yes 65
No 29

Impact of killing Soleimani on the safety of Americans:

More safe 32
Less safe 45
No impact 18

[Progressive Pessimist]

Quinnipiac, Jan. 8-12, 1562 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 34 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: 51/46
Remove Trump: 46/48

Was killing Soleimani the right action to take?

Right action 45
Wrong action 41

Should Trump consult with Congress if he plans to launch more military strikes in the Middle East?

Yes 65
No 29

Impact of killing Soleimani on the safety of Americans:

More safe 32
Less safe 45
No impact 18

I'm a bit confused at how Americans think the Soleimani strike made the country less safe, but can square that with supporting the strike against him. Maybe I should just stop trying to understand the American public...

[Person Man]

Quinnipiac, Jan. 8-12, 1562 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 34 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: 51/46
Remove Trump: 46/48

Was killing Soleimani the right action to take?

Right action 45
Wrong action 41

Should Trump consult with Congress if he plans to launch more military strikes in the Middle East?

Yes 65
No 29

Impact of killing Soleimani on the safety of Americans:

More safe 32
Less safe 45
No impact 18

I'm a bit confused at how Americans think the Soleimani strike made the country less safe, but can square that with supporting the strike against him. Maybe I should just stop trying to understand the American public...

It felt good but was a  up. Simple as that.

[emailking]

I don't have any problems squaring that. It's like asking whether heart surgery will make you feel good. They see it as a bitter pill.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, Jan. 7-12, 1259 adults including 1064 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

Remove Trump: Yes 47 (+1), No 47 (-2)

RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico national tracker, Jan. 10-12, 1996 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 25
Strongly disapprove 43

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 31
Probably Trump 8
Probably someone else 7
Definitely someone else 45
(Net: Trump 39, someone else 52)

GCB: D 42, R 39

Approve of impeachment: 49/43

Remove Trump: 49/43

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 11-14, 1500 adults including 1108 RV

Note: this week's sample is somewhat more Republican and less Democratic than is usual for this poll, which likely accounts for at least some of the movement.

Adults:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 45 (-3), No 43 (+2)

Remove Trump: Yes 42 (-3), No 43 (nc)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

Strongly approve 31 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 48 (-3), No 47 (+3)

Remove Trump: Yes 45 (-2), No 46 (+2)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (-2), Trump 42 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (-2), R 42 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Jan. 13-14, 1119 adults including 919 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)


RV (not broken out last week):

Approve 41
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 25
Strongly disapprove 45

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

*posts approval rating poll*

It is impressive how you never grow tired of posting polls that always show exactly the same thing.

Oh wait, didn't someone say there was suddenly huge movement and Trump's approval rating was surging?

[GeorgiaModerate]

*posts approval rating poll*

It is impressive how you never grow tired of posting polls that always show exactly the same thing.

Oh wait, didn't someone say there was suddenly huge movement and Trump's approval rating was surging?

The main reason is simply that I've always, ever since I was a kid, had a fascination for numbers.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

It's crazy how Trump's approval rating has been consistent for 3 years (38-42%). Very rarely has his approval rating gone above or below that range.