Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Hindsight was 2020]

RCP: “Trump Approval Hits 3 Month High” in their aggregator.

Meaning, Trump is right back to pre-Impeachment polling.

Let me enjoy this moment: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Siri show me what insecurity looks like

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 19-20, 1387 RV (prior poll Dec. 14-15)

This poll was conducted entirely after the House impeachment vote.

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Do you approve or disapprove of the House of Representatives impeaching President Trump? (Previous wording: would you approve of...)

Approve 52 (+2)
Disapprove 43 (nc)

And would you approve or disapprove of the Senate removing President Trump from office?

Approve 51 (+1)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 19-20, 1387 RV (prior poll Dec. 14-15)

This poll was conducted entirely after the House impeachment vote.

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Do you approve or disapprove of the House of Representatives impeaching President Trump? (Previous wording: would you approve of...)

Approve 52 (+2)
Disapprove 43 (nc)

And would you approve or disapprove of the Senate removing President Trump from office?

Approve 51 (+1)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

He is not winning in this scenario.  I expect to see little polling activity in the rest of the month due to the Holidays.

[junior chįmp]

Whenever things start looking up for Trump....he chokes like a true choke artist and sends his ratings back down

[The Mikado]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

I just kind of felt like reaffirming my point that Holiday bumps are a real thing. If Trump is currently in one is a matter of debate, but Obama got one every year between Thanksgiving and New Years.

Yup. The 538 approval comparison shows that Bush got a pretty big bump at this exact time as well.

That was the "I just caught Saddam Hussein" bounce of 2003. Different thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Dec. 17-20, 1100 adults including 992 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 57 (-3)

RV:

Approve 38 (+2)
Disapprove 58 (-3)

[Koharu]

Got polled again on Sunday via text. Different outfit this time. Had approval as well as preference vs generic Dem. Again, will be curious to see if this is WI only or nationwide.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the usual caveats about polling during the holidays...

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Dec. 22-24, 1500 adults including 1240 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

Approve of impeachment? (previously: should the House impeach Trump?) Yes 49 (+2), No 41 (+2)

Remove Trump? Yes 44 (-3), No 41 (+3)


RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 49 (-1), No 45 (+2)

Remove Trump? Yes 47 (-3), No 44 (+2)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (-2), Trump 42 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (-1), R 41 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's something to kick off the New Year, with the usual caveat: take polling during the holidays with a grain of salt.

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Dec. 28-31, 1500 adults including 1123 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 47 (-2), No 41 (nc)

Remove Trump: Yes 45 (+1), No 41 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 52 (+3), No 43 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 48 (+1), No 44 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 50 (+3), Trump 40 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 50 (+3), Trump 40 (-1)

[Person Man]

We will see what happens now that Christmas is over. It appears we are indeed starting the campaign in a Lean D environment. Is Trump still in trouble or will Republicans come home as Trump softens on trade? Is Trump beginning to grow on people or break their spirits? Are enough people able to get the raises (or at least the loans) they need to move to the next level in their life as the media says? Are Democrats really that socially or politically inept or have policies that unrealistic?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We will see what happens now that Christmas is over. It appears we are indeed starting the campaign in a Lean D environment. Is Trump still in trouble or will Republicans come home as Trump softens on trade? Is Trump beginning to grow on people or break their spirits? Are enough people able to get the raises (or at least the loans) they need to move to the next level in their life as the media says? Are Democrats really that socially or politically inept or have policies that unrealistic?

No joke, I think it's a messy mixture of all the items you mentioned. 

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rassy polls have always had Trump near 50, whom do phone polling, it's the other polls that pushed down Trump approvals at 42, to make it easier for Ds to get in office, whom do internet polls. The same with primary polls with Bernie v Biden. Terrorist attack put focus back on natl security and away from Ukraine and impeachment

[Hindsight was 2020]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

There has been no polling of his approval since 12/27 so I don’t know how RCP averages that

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Which is still pretty dismal for a President overseeing a pretty booming economy. 

Come back when his aggregate approval is actually in the majority and then you can boast.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rassy polls have showed steady incline in approvals,  he does Tracking polls

[GeorgiaModerate]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

There has been no polling of his approval since 12/27 so I don’t know how RCP averages that

Rasmussen has continued to publish its daily tracker every weekday, skipping Dec. 25/26 and Jan. 1/2.  Also, the latest Harvard/Harris poll went through 12/29 and the latest Economist/YouGov through 12/31.

I hate to keep repeating myself, but polling during the holidays should always be taken with a grain of salt.

[junior chįmp]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Carter had a 60% approval rating in January 1980

[Badger]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I couldn't agree more. Having the best approval rating in two years from a friendly posllster of only 45% is quite laughable.

"HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA" indeed.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I couldn't agree more. Having the best approval rating in two years from a friendly posllster of only 45% is quite laughable.

"HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA" indeed.

Worked for Obama.

Was just reading this from Nov 2011

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html

[Badger]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I couldn't agree more. Having the best approval rating in two years from a friendly posllster of only 45% is quite laughable.

"HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA" indeed.

Worked for Obama.

Was just reading this from Nov 2011

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html

Obama never ever had anywhere remotely the numbers of strongly disapprove Trump has, for excellent reasons. Heck, even his General approval numbers were consistently better.

[pbrower2a]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I couldn't agree more. Having the best approval rating in two years from a friendly pollster of only 45% is quite laughable.

"HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA" indeed.

Trump won with 45.92% of the popular vote. He could do that again if Democrats simply run up the popular vote in California, New York, and about six more states -- which implies a lazy or complacent campaign by the Democrat.

I do not expect a lazy or complacent Democratic campaign for President this year, and I see Trump winning over few voters who did not vote for him in 2016, and I see much disappointment.     

[Badger]

This. At this point it seems highly unlikely indeed that Trump could Flip any Clinton States. His poll numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania have been anywhere from poor to DOA. Any Democrat flipping those two states alone would be enough to deny Trump re-election, assuming no more than 1 Democratic collector flipped to vote for Trump rather than a third party, which would of course simply move the election into the presumably democratic-controlled house.

None of this even requires places like Iowa, Georgia, Maine 2nd District, or above all Wisconsin, to flip.

EDIT: As noted below, my math was off.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This. At this point it seems highly unlikely indeed that Trump could Flip any Clinton States. His poll numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania have been anywhere from poor to DOA. Any Democrat flipping those two states alone would be enough to deny Trump re-election, assuming no more than 1 Democratic collector flipped to vote for Trump rather than a third party, which would of course simply move the election into the presumably democratic-controlled house.

None of this even requires places like Iowa, Georgia, Maine 2nd District, or above all Wisconsin, to flip.

You're wrong about that. The Democrat would fall very slightly short of 270 if they hold every Clinton state and just win Michigan and Pennsylvania. They'd need at least one more state with Wisconsin being the top contender. That's why the scenario you described would actually be the nightmare scenario where one state, probably by a less than 1% margin, once again robs a Democrat of a victory in the electoral college (by two f***ing electoral votes!) while they simultaneously win the popular vote, probably by 3 points or more.

[Inmate Trump]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I couldn't agree more. Having the best approval rating in two years from a friendly pollster of only 45% is quite laughable.

"HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA" indeed.

Trump won with 45.92% of the popular vote. He could do that again if Democrats simply run up the popular vote in California, New York, and about six more states -- which implies a lazy or complacent campaign by the Democrat.

I do not expect a lazy or complacent Democratic campaign for President this year, and I see Trump winning over few voters who did not vote for him in 2016, and I see much disappointment.     

Mostly this.

I don't see where Trump can expand his margin much.

He already has Republicans.  He won't win any Democrats.  He can't afford to lost ground with any independents.