Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, Dec. 12-15, 1005 adults including 888 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 45 (-5), No 47 (+4)

[Cinemark]

interesting. looks like these was a significant drop in impeachment support amongst democrats. I guess the shine wore off. could also just be holiday ambivalence.

[GeorgiaModerate]

interesting. looks like these was a significant drop in impeachment support amongst democrats. I guess the shine wore off. could also just be holiday ambivalence.

Here's another possible reason:

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1206750770730872832

[Libertas Vel Mors]

interesting. looks like these was a significant drop in impeachment support amongst democrats. I guess the shine wore off. could also just be holiday ambivalence.

Here's another possible reason:

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1206750770730872832

People drastically overestimate how much the average American thinks about the electoral effects of policies they support

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm hoping it's just Democrats fearing it might backfire, (which is silly and overthinking it yes) and not people being swayed by Glenn Greenwald-type bullsh!t.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

interesting. looks like these was a significant drop in impeachment support amongst democrats. I guess the shine wore off. could also just be holiday ambivalence.

Here's another possible reason:

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1206750770730872832

Once again, the media creates a narrative rather than reporting on the facts. Same mistakes they made with Clinton in 2016 and they never learned.

[wbrocks67]

interesting. looks like these was a significant drop in impeachment support amongst democrats. I guess the shine wore off. could also just be holiday ambivalence.

Here's another possible reason:

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1206750770730872832

Once again, the media creates a narrative rather than reporting on the facts. Same mistakes they made with Clinton in 2016 and they never learned.

MTE. Every time a Dem is interviewed or brought up, the narrative is "is this going to end your career" instead of it being about holding Trump accountable

[Person Man]

With this big uptick there are two possibilities-

1) Everybody is making money but you
2) Trump has finally broken the American voter. I guess bullying works.

[pbrower2a]

With this big uptick there are two possibilities-

1) Everybody is making money but you
2) Trump has finally broken the American voter. I guess bullying works.

Or, more cynically --

1) our current economic ethos depends upon mass poverty as the key to making people do what they find loathsome on behalf of those who command the wealth and economic power
2) the 2018 election remains relevant to 2020 until it is no longer relevant (November 2020). 

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, Dec. 5-14, 905 adults (change from late Oct.)

Approve 44 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

I believe this is Trump's highest approval this year in this poll.

Impeach and remove Trump?  Yes 49, No 49 (no prior)

[Person Man]

Maybe two things- Trump has become a lot more accommodative to free trade and Democrats are afraid of impeachment.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Just wait to you see USA Today’s general election polls....

A lot of red showing up now. As the general election nears, this will tighten in favor of Trump. Happy Days!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Just wait to you see USA Today’s general election polls....

A lot of red showing up now. As the general election nears, this will tighten in favor of Trump. Happy Days!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

Oh good grief how many times do we have to go through this bit of Trump approval go up a tick and we get subjected to hot takes about how they’ll keep going up?

[Dr. Arch]

Just wait to you see USA Today’s general election polls....

A lot of red showing up now. As the general election nears, this will tighten in favor of Trump. Happy Days!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

Oh good grief how many times do we have to go through this bit of Trump approval go up a tick and we get subjected to hot takes about how they’ll keep going up?

Just ignore them. They will always ignore polls when they don't like them and then come back to say the same things when they do.

[Cinemark]

Its gonna be a long 11 months.

[The Mikado]

It's hilarious how the blue avatars come in to talk in this thread whenever Trump's on an upswing, and then vanish the second his numbers return to where they usually are.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1206930430605348866

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1206967994221498368

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Congressional Democrats though are improving in the polls.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats are getting cold feet on impeachment. First, Mike Pence follows. He is more folksy than Trump, so he might stem any return of D voters of the 1990's who went for Dubya and rejected Obama in the extreme. He is from Columbus, Indiana (and this is one of the few cities of such size in the industrial heartland that really does look good) in tune with a border area between the Rust Belt and the Mountain South. He is a confirmed Protestant fundamentalist, which solidifies one constituency.

He is more competent than Trump as a politician (which is not hard to achieve), and he has done nothing to offend the "Deep State". He is also more ruthless and reactionary. Elect Pence in 2020, and America might devolve into the Pence dream of a Union of Christian and Corporate States -- the sort of place in which 90% suffer for 2% who own everything and demand everything. If Donald Trump is a real-life J R Ewing or Berzelius Windrip, Pence knows what he is doing and holds anyone who gets in his way in contempt. The personality cult that Donald Trump has created will go quickly to Mike Pence.

Note well: he is accustomed to the calumnies of liberals who have no cause to like him.

So here is what I expect: Donald Trump will be impeached, but the Republican majority in the Senate will quash it quickly. This will be a Pyrrhic victory for the GOP, as it will not clear the President and (worse for them) it will show current Republican Senators mostly in on the fix. Republicans will easily re-nominate Trump, but he goes down to defeat. So do incumbent Republican Senators who have any current vulnerabilities, such as being in anything close to a swing state.

Pence would do better than Trump because he will not disillusion the Religious Right. He will make amends with the part of the electorate that puts national security first and kiss up to the military and the CIA. He will have the backing of Corporate America which wants cheap labor toiling and a captive clientele for monopolists. He will promise wild privatization. He will make Trump-haters hurt if he should be elected.

Pence is Gerald Ford without the geniality and the willingness to compromise, and LBJ with a reactionary agenda -- a liberal nightmare. If you think dignity on the job is a desirable end, that government exists for reasons other than the enforcement of the will of rapacious plutocrats, if you think faith a poor substitute for reasoning, and if you do not want a revived version of Manifest Destiny to spread Pence's vision of a Christian and Corporate State where such is unwelcome, then you might want to emigrate before you risk becoming a political prisoner.

Mike Pence is "impeachment insurance".   

[Woody]

Trump's approval rating is now at it's highest since early 2017, according to 538.

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approval rating is now at it's highest since early 2017, according to 538.

Although, essentially the same as the 2018 exit polls (-9)

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

In the 2020 Presidential election, whoever wins WI-03 will take the White House.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

In the 2020 Presidential election, whoever wins WI-03 will take the White House.

I tend to agree with you, but we can imagine a scenario where Trump is reelected despite losing this district if at the same time he gets Scott Walker numbers in the rest of the state. The map would look in a such scenario a bit like the Supreme Court race from earlier this year.