Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Brittain33]

Wisconsin: Marquette, Dec. 3-8, 800 RV (prior poll Nov. 13-17)

Approve 47 (nc)
Disaspprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 40 (nc), No 52 (-1)

WHY!? Why do the worst states always have to be the most important! We're so f***ed next year...

I wouldn't take opposing impeach and remove as meaning supporting Trump--I am opposed because it's a bad idea to have an acquittal on the eve of the election, and because I know Pence is far, far worse than Trump because he doesn't wear how incompetent and evil he is on his sleeve.

I also wonder if Wisconsinites might be a little more leery of impeachment after living through the extremely divisive attempted recall of Scott Walker a few years ago.

Oh, that’s an interesting insight I haven’t heard before.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, Dec. 8-11, 1000 RV (prior poll OCt. 27-30)

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Impeach and remove Trump?  Yes 50, No 46 (was 49/45)

Biden 48, Trump 41 (was 51/39)
Sanders 49, Trump 43 (49/41)
Bloomberg 45, Trump 40 (no prior)
Warren 46, Trump 45 (46/41)
Buttigieg 43, Trump 42 (41/41)

An interesting question: do you THINK <candidate> can beat Trump in 2020?

Biden: Yes 77, No 17 (was 68/17)
Sanders: 60/31 (54/34)
Warren: 59/34 (57/25)
Bloomberg: 55/33 (no prior)
Buttigieg: 48/42 (30/44)

[Cinemark]

Seems like Trump got hit by impeachment but has recovered to his usual -10% range.

Mark my words, i think Trump's approval in the 2020 exit polls will be almost identical to the 2018 exit polls: 45/54

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Fox News, Dec. 8-11, 1000 RV (prior poll OCt. 27-30)

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Impeach and remove Trump?  Yes 50, No 46 (was 49/45)

Biden 48, Trump 41 (was 51/39)
Sanders 49, Trump 43 (49/41)
Bloomberg 45, Trump 40 (no prior)
Warren 46, Trump 45 (46/41)
Buttigieg 43, Trump 42 (41/41)

An interesting question: do you THINK <candidate> can beat Trump in 2020?

Biden: Yes 77, No 17 (was 68/17)
Sanders: 60/31 (54/34)
Warren: 59/34 (57/25)
Bloomberg: 55/33 (no prior)
Buttigieg: 48/42 (30/44)

Can't wait for them to spin this "OPPOSITION TO IMPEACHING TRUMP RISES"

[Hindsight was 2020]

TBF the breakdown of the impeachment is 50 yes, 41 no, 5 impeach but not remove

[American2020]

Findings like that make Carville wonder if, in 2020, it really still is the economy, stupid.

"Trump is impervious to everything, good or bad. He just stays at 41.7," Carville said, referring to the president's approval rating in FiveThirtyEight.com's average. "I don't care how many good stories about the economy come, I don't care about how many bad stories come — it still comes up 41.7."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-campaigning-roaring-economy-here-s-how-democrats-plan-n1102131

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't think anyone buys the whole Big Lie that the economy is any damn good.

The claim that we have the best economy in 50 years is downright laughable.

[Frodo]

Fox News, Dec. 8-11, 1000 RV (prior poll OCt. 27-30)

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Impeach and remove Trump?  Yes 50, No 46 (was 49/45)

Biden 48, Trump 41 (was 51/39)
Sanders 49, Trump 43 (49/41)
Bloomberg 45, Trump 40 (no prior)
Warren 46, Trump 45 (46/41)
Buttigieg 43, Trump 42 (41/41)

An interesting question: do you THINK <candidate> can beat Trump in 2020?

Biden: Yes 77, No 17 (was 68/17)
Sanders: 60/31 (54/34)
Warren: 59/34 (57/25)
Bloomberg: 55/33 (no prior)
Buttigieg: 48/42 (30/44)

Just as a reminder, in November 2016 (the last few days before Election Day), Trump's poll average had him at 44%, with Hillary Clinton leading him at 47%.

We all know how that turned out... 

[Cinemark]

Fox News, Dec. 8-11, 1000 RV (prior poll OCt. 27-30)

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Impeach and remove Trump?  Yes 50, No 46 (was 49/45)

Biden 48, Trump 41 (was 51/39)
Sanders 49, Trump 43 (49/41)
Bloomberg 45, Trump 40 (no prior)
Warren 46, Trump 45 (46/41)
Buttigieg 43, Trump 42 (41/41)

An interesting question: do you THINK <candidate> can beat Trump in 2020?

Biden: Yes 77, No 17 (was 68/17)
Sanders: 60/31 (54/34)
Warren: 59/34 (57/25)
Bloomberg: 55/33 (no prior)
Buttigieg: 48/42 (30/44)

Just as a reminder, in November 2016 (the last few days before Election Day), Trump's poll average had him at 44%, with Hillary Clinton leading him at 47%.

We all know how that turned out...  

Yeah, Trump got 46% and Hillary got 48%. Pretty close to be honest.

Edit: If your saying national polls are going to underestimate Trump, then I have to disagree with you. The national polls were pretty spot on in 2016, and Trump's approval rating in the 2018 exit polls was 45/54, which is spot on with where the polling aggregates had him and continue to have him.

[Frodo]

Fox News, Dec. 8-11, 1000 RV (prior poll OCt. 27-30)

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Impeach and remove Trump?  Yes 50, No 46 (was 49/45)

Biden 48, Trump 41 (was 51/39)
Sanders 49, Trump 43 (49/41)
Bloomberg 45, Trump 40 (no prior)
Warren 46, Trump 45 (46/41)
Buttigieg 43, Trump 42 (41/41)

An interesting question: do you THINK <candidate> can beat Trump in 2020?

Biden: Yes 77, No 17 (was 68/17)
Sanders: 60/31 (54/34)
Warren: 59/34 (57/25)
Bloomberg: 55/33 (no prior)
Buttigieg: 48/42 (30/44)

Just as a reminder, in November 2016 (the last few days before Election Day), Trump's poll average had him at 44%, with Hillary Clinton leading him at 47%.

We all know how that turned out...  

Yeah, Trump got 46% and Hillary got 48%. Pretty close to be honest.

Edit: If your saying national polls are going to underestimate Trump, then I have to disagree with you. The national polls were pretty spot on in 2016, and Trump's approval rating in the 2018 exit polls was 45/54, which is spot on with where the polling aggregates had him and continue to have him.

I am not saying the polls are underestimating Trump -if anything I agree with you.  As this poll indicates, Trump is returning back to where his approvals were before Election Day 2016.  Which is somewhat ominous if unsurprising.  My point is that the polls are overestimating the Democratic candidates.  Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Fox News, Dec. 8-11, 1000 RV (prior poll OCt. 27-30)

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Impeach and remove Trump?  Yes 50, No 46 (was 49/45)

Biden 48, Trump 41 (was 51/39)
Sanders 49, Trump 43 (49/41)
Bloomberg 45, Trump 40 (no prior)
Warren 46, Trump 45 (46/41)
Buttigieg 43, Trump 42 (41/41)

An interesting question: do you THINK <candidate> can beat Trump in 2020?

Biden: Yes 77, No 17 (was 68/17)
Sanders: 60/31 (54/34)
Warren: 59/34 (57/25)
Bloomberg: 55/33 (no prior)
Buttigieg: 48/42 (30/44)

Just as a reminder, in November 2016 (the last few days before Election Day), Trump's poll average had him at 44%, with Hillary Clinton leading him at 47%.

We all know how that turned out...  

Yeah, Trump got 46% and Hillary got 48%. Pretty close to be honest.

Edit: If your saying national polls are going to underestimate Trump, then I have to disagree with you. The national polls were pretty spot on in 2016, and Trump's approval rating in the 2018 exit polls was 45/54, which is spot on with where the polling aggregates had him and continue to have him.

I am not saying the polls are underestimating Trump -if anything I agree with you.  As this poll indicates, Trump is returning back to where his approvals were before Election Day 2016.  Which is somewhat ominous if unsurprising.  My point is that the polls are overestimating the Democratic candidates.  Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

This has always been my fear. That's really his only way of winning again, and he knows it. And it could happen again!

[bandg]

USA Today/Suffolk 12/10-14

Approve 48 (+2)
Disapprove 50 (-2)

Impeach 41 (+5)
Don't Impeach, stop investigating 42 (+5)
Investigate, don't impeach 14 (-8)

Convict 45 (-1)
Don't convict 51 (+4)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/12/15/poll-impeachment-looms-narrow-majority-opposes-convicting-trump/2657549001/

[Cinemark]

Suffolk continues to be one of Trump 's best pollsters.

On another note, I've noticed its quite common for presidents to get a holiday bump. Happened to Trump last year and multiple times for Obama. I'd wager Trump is in the middle of one now.

[pbrower2a]

It's a great economy for the usual cornerstone of Republican pols -- shareholders, executives, big landlords, and big debt-holders for whom practically everyone exists solely for... well, you know. Have an economic elite extreme in its expressions of contempt for anyone unfortunate enough to have to work for them, and prosperity is uneven, to put it tamely.

[wbrocks67]

Suffolk continues to be one of Trump 's best pollsters.

On another note, I've noticed its quite common for presidents to get a holiday bump. Happened to Trump last year and multiple times for Obama. I'd wager Trump is in the middle of one now.

Yeah.. their last polls 46-52 was at least a little bit more realistic but 48/50 right now is just way outside the norm.

[emailking]

Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

It's not a likelihood. Even last cycle the chance of a popular/electoral split was never more than 10% according to 538.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, Dec. 7-11, 1744 adults including 1508 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

[Person Man]

Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

It's not a likelihood. Even last cycle the chance of a popular/electoral split was never more than 10% according to 538.

What are you expecting to happen? A Trump pv victory by winning the 3rd party vote and Democratic abstention? That’s how Bush and Obama won. The reason Obama struggled was because he lost a lot of crossover vote by being very ambitious because of the recession.

[emailking]

Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

It's not a likelihood. Even last cycle the chance of a popular/electoral split was never more than 10% according to 538.

What are you expecting to happen? A Trump pv victory by winning the 3rd party vote and Democratic abstention? That’s how Bush and Obama won. The reason Obama struggled was because he lost a lot of crossover vote by being very ambitious because of the recession.

I'm expecting no split. If you tell me Trump wins then I am about 90% confident he wins the popular vote. I don't think he will win though.

[Frodo]

Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

It's not a likelihood. Even last cycle the chance of a popular/electoral split was never more than 10% according to 538.

Trump is special.  Rules and precedents that apply to everyone else don't apply to him. Have we not learned this lesson yet since he came down that damned escalator?  

[Matty]

Trump is at 43-52 in new Qpac poll, his highest rating ever in this poll

Voters oppose I and O 51-45

Indies oppose impeachment 58-36!!

Repubs oppose 95-5

Dems support 86-11

I’d love to know how Q pac got only +6 for opposing impeachment and removal

Indies oppose by 22 and more repubs are against than dems are for

[emailking]

Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

It's not a likelihood. Even last cycle the chance of a popular/electoral split was never more than 10% according to 538.

Trump is special.  Rules and precedents that apply to everyone else don't apply to him. Have we not learned this lesson yet since he came down that damned escalator?   

I don't know if you're being serious or not but there's no reason to think Trump is special in this regard. 1 data point does not make a trend.

[Cinemark]

Trump is at 43-52 in new Qpac poll, his highest rating ever in this poll

Nope. He was at 43-52 in June of 2018.

[Cinemark]

Trump definitely seems to be in the middle of a bump, probably driven by some positive economic news and voters getting weary of impeachment. But, as always, Trump has reverted back to his normal -10% net approval range. Sometimes he goes above -10%, sometimes he goes below -10%, but he always returns to -10%. Even impeachment couldn't break this rule.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can't take this s***! Every time a poll comes out that makes me feel even slightly encouraged, another comes out and neutralizes it. That's what I get for ever trying to be optimistic. Hope giveth, hope taketh away.

F*** this country. This really isn't a place for people like me. It's the Trumpian Republican Party's right wing fantasy-land. That's what it was always meant to be. The rest of us just live in it.