Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[bilaps]

MSNBC has talked on Morning Joe for 2nd and it will be 3rd hour this morning as some sort of breaking news NEW numbers from Morning Consult, which show trump for example approval of minus 13 in IA. These people are morons. Numbers are actualy from November 19th.

[Annatar]

MSNBC has talked on Morning Joe for 2nd and it will be 3rd hour this morning as some sort of breaking news NEW numbers from Morning Consult, which show trump for example approval of minus 13 in IA. These people are morons. Numbers are actualy from November 19th.

I love the MC numbers whenever they come out because they're so funny, their latest monthly survey has Trump approval at -7 in PA vs -13 in IA and -5 in OH. Trump is also at -6 in Nebraska according to MC. How is Trump's approval higher in Ohio than Nebraska or higher in Pennsylvania than Iowa, I guess MC would argue there's some kind Trump approval collapse going on in rural areas whereas he's holding up in the industrial areas of PA and OH.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

MSNBC has talked on Morning Joe for 2nd and it will be 3rd hour this morning as some sort of breaking news NEW numbers from Morning Consult, which show trump for example approval of minus 13 in IA. These people are morons. Numbers are actualy from November 19th.

I love the MC numbers whenever they come out because they're so funny, their latest monthly survey has Trump approval at -7 in PA vs -13 in IA and -5 in OH. Trump is also at -6 in Nebraska according to MC. How is Trump's approval higher in Ohio than Nebraska or higher in Pennsylvania than Iowa, I guess MC would argue there's some kind Trump approval collapse going on in rural areas whereas he's holding up in the industrial areas of PA and OH.

Imagine if Trump collapses in rural middle America but hangs on in the Rust Belt.  Cue the "EC Maps No One Saw Coming", Annatar.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The approval ratings are lying when they have Trump at 41, Emerson and Rassy are exactly right, when they have Trump at 47, like Obama and Dubya. That's why Ermst and Tillis will lose nothing if they vote to acquit Trump, which they will.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

MSNBC has talked on Morning Joe for 2nd and it will be 3rd hour this morning as some sort of breaking news NEW numbers from Morning Consult, which show trump for example approval of minus 13 in IA. These people are morons. Numbers are actualy from November 19th.

I love the MC numbers whenever they come out because they're so funny, their latest monthly survey has Trump approval at -7 in PA vs -13 in IA and -5 in OH. Trump is also at -6 in Nebraska according to MC. How is Trump's approval higher in Ohio than Nebraska or higher in Pennsylvania than Iowa, I guess MC would argue there's some kind Trump approval collapse going on in rural areas whereas he's holding up in the industrial areas of PA and OH.

Imagine if Trump collapses in rural middle America but hangs on in the Rust Belt.  Cue the "EC Maps No One Saw Coming", Annatar.

338-200 :-)

[GP270watch]

 I always felt that Trump would do much worse in Iowa than 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is very popular like Reynolds in Iowa, Trump is gonna win Iowa and Ohio again.

[pbrower2a]

Ernst is very popular like Reynolds in Iowa, Trump is gonna win Iowa and Ohio again.

Much the same was said of Blanche Lincoln in late 2009. Just saying.

[Bidenworth2020]

Ernst is very popular like Reynolds in Iowa, Trump is gonna win Iowa and Ohio again.

Much the same was said of Blanche Lincoln in late 2009. Just saying.

Iowa did not just trend 19 points to the left.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Iowa did not just trend 19 points to the left.

Kentucky just did, so it may have.

[pbrower2a]

Ernst is very popular like Reynolds in Iowa, Trump is gonna win Iowa and Ohio again.

Much the same was said of Blanche Lincoln in late 2009. Just saying.

Iowa did not just trend 19 points to the left.

The Presidential vote of 2016 and the aggregate vote for the US House in 2018 may be apples and oranges...

Iowa (2018). aggregate vote for US House of Representatives

Democrats: 656,986 (50.4%)
Republicans: 607,827 (46.6%)

US House of Representatives, two House seats flipping from R to D

Iowa (2016), President of the United States

Donald J. Trump      Republican           800,983   51.15%   
Hillary Clinton      Democratic   653,669   41.74%   



A 9.33% R margin for President became about a 3.8% D margin in the House Democrats in the House in 2018, and midterm elections are usually better for Republicans than for Democrats.Iowaq   

Iowa (2014), US Senate
   
Joni Ernst           Republican           588,575   52.10%
Bruce Braley   Democratic   494,370   43.76%

Ernst won Iowa in 2014 by almost the same margin (8.34%) by which Trump won Iowa in 2016.

The House vote is the most effective way of showing contempt for the personality and policies of you-who. Governors? They are more about statewide issues such as the budgetary process, maintenance of roads, and K-12 education.

At this point if I were to make a prediction for Iowa in the Presidency I would put the strongest weight on the 2018 election... fully aware that young new voters are about 25% more D than the older voters who 'retire' from voting due to death and debility (about 1.5% per year), I could easily see Iowa being 'close to being close'... to the benefit of a Democratic nominee. 

[pbrower2a]

KANSAS:

The Docking Institute of Public Affairs at Fort Hays State University conducted the 2019
Kansas Speaks fall survey from August 26 to October 14, 2019. A random sample of 352 adult
residents of Kansas age 18 and older were surveyed by telephone to assess their attitudes and
opinions regarding various issues of interest to Kansas citizens. The survey finds:

• 53.7% of respondents indicated Kansas was a “very good” or “excellent” place to live.
1.5% said Kansas was a “poor” or “very poor” place to live.

• 79.3% of respondents “strongly support” or “somewhat support” increasing taxes on
cigarettes and cigars.

• 68% of respondents “strongly support” or “somewhat support” increasing taxes on
alcohol.

• 61.3% of respondents “strongly support” or “somewhat support” legalizing recreational
marijuana for individuals 21 and older to allow taxation by the State of Kansas. 25.8% of
respondents “somewhat oppose” or “strongly oppose.”

• 52.7% of respondents were satisfied with the performance of Governor Laura Kelly (D), and
26.4% were dissatisfied.

• 44.1% of respondents were satisfied with President Trump, and 44.3% were dissatisfied.

https://www.fhsu.edu/docking/Kansas-Speaks/kansas-speaks-report_fall-2019-final

Except in the LBJ blowout of 1964, LBJ sweeping the northern and western parts of the US (except for Goldwater's home state of Arizona), the last time that a Democratic nominee for President won Kansas was the 46-state near-sweep by FDR in 1936.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[American2020]

The next 100 days will be critical to understanding whether President Donald Trump will win a second term in office. His approval rating has been consistently low during his first term. Yet his supporters could always point out that approval ratings before an election year have not historically been correlated with reelection success.

But by mid-March of an election year, approval ratings, though, become more predictive. Presidents with low approval ratings in mid-March of an election year tend to lose, while those with strong approval ratings tend to win in blowouts and those with middling approval ratings usually win by small margins.
Let's start with where Trump is right now: an approval rating in the low 40s. Since World War II, two presidents have had an approval rating at or below 45% in mid-March of an election year. George H.W. Bush had an approval rating at 39%, while Jimmy Carter's was at 45% and falling fast. Both of them went on to lose reelection by greater than 5 points.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there have been five presidents with an approval rating of 55% or above. There was Bill Clinton at 55%, Ronald Reagan at 55%, Richard Nixon at 58%, Dwight Eisenhower at 72% and Lyndon Johnson at 80%. All of these presidents won their elections by nine points or greater.
Finally, we have the group of presidents with approval ratings between between 46% and 54%. This includes Gerald Ford at 47%, Barack Obama at 47%, George W. Bush at 49% and Harry Truman at 51%. All of their elections were decided by less than 5 points.
Ford didn't win.

https://us.cnn.com/2019/12/07/politics/trump-100-days-reelection-analysis/index.html

[Progressive Pessimist]

The next 100 days will be critical to understanding whether President Donald Trump will win a second term in office. His approval rating has been consistently low during his first term. Yet his supporters could always point out that approval ratings before an election year have not historically been correlated with reelection success.

But by mid-March of an election year, approval ratings, though, become more predictive. Presidents with low approval ratings in mid-March of an election year tend to lose, while those with strong approval ratings tend to win in blowouts and those with middling approval ratings usually win by small margins.
Let's start with where Trump is right now: an approval rating in the low 40s. Since World War II, two presidents have had an approval rating at or below 45% in mid-March of an election year. George H.W. Bush had an approval rating at 39%, while Jimmy Carter's was at 45% and falling fast. Both of them went on to lose reelection by greater than 5 points.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there have been five presidents with an approval rating of 55% or above. There was Bill Clinton at 55%, Ronald Reagan at 55%, Richard Nixon at 58%, Dwight Eisenhower at 72% and Lyndon Johnson at 80%. All of these presidents won their elections by nine points or greater.
Finally, we have the group of presidents with approval ratings between between 46% and 54%. This includes Gerald Ford at 47%, Barack Obama at 47%, George W. Bush at 49% and Harry Truman at 51%. All of their elections were decided by less than 5 points.
Ford didn't win.

https://us.cnn.com/2019/12/07/politics/trump-100-days-reelection-analysis/index.html

Interesting, and somewhat encouraging, because I don't see how Trump ever consistently makes it into the 46-54% average range.

Of course, Trump being the anomalous enigma he usually is could make this yet another irrelevant predictor. I still wouldn't count him out.

[pbrower2a]

The next 100 days will be critical to understanding whether President Donald Trump will win a second term in office. His approval rating has been consistently low during his first term. Yet his supporters could always point out that approval ratings before an election year have not historically been correlated with reelection success.

But by mid-March of an election year, approval ratings, though, become more predictive. Presidents with low approval ratings in mid-March of an election year tend to lose, while those with strong approval ratings tend to win in blowouts and those with middling approval ratings usually win by small margins.
Let's start with where Trump is right now: an approval rating in the low 40s. Since World War II, two presidents have had an approval rating at or below 45% in mid-March of an election year. George H.W. Bush had an approval rating at 39%, while Jimmy Carter's was at 45% and falling fast. Both of them went on to lose reelection by greater than 5 points.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there have been five presidents with an approval rating of 55% or above. There was Bill Clinton at 55%, Ronald Reagan at 55%, Richard Nixon at 58%, Dwight Eisenhower at 72% and Lyndon Johnson at 80%. All of these presidents won their elections by nine points or greater.
Finally, we have the group of presidents with approval ratings between between 46% and 54%. This includes Gerald Ford at 47%, Barack Obama at 47%, George W. Bush at 49% and Harry Truman at 51%. All of their elections were decided by less than 5 points.
Ford didn't win.

https://us.cnn.com/2019/12/07/politics/trump-100-days-reelection-analysis/index.html

Interesting, and somewhat encouraging, because I don't see how Trump ever consistently makes it into the 46-54% average range.

Of course, Trump being the anomalous enigma he usually is could make this yet another irrelevant predictor. I still wouldn't count him out.

Despite getting only 0.27% more of the popular vote in 2016 than Mike Dukakis got in 1988, Donald Trump got almost 200 more electoral votes. To be sure, third-party and independent nominees played little role in 2016... Talk about an anomaly!

Donald Trump has been shaking everything up, and it looks so far that should he be the one-term President that Democrats largely expect, then his sole achievements will be in cutting taxes for the Master Class and pushing reactionaries into the federal courts. Maybe, for a liberal Democrat, it is a blessing that President Trump has been unusually ineffective as President.

The next 100 days will probably establish whether he gets some idea of how to be President. To achieve the reactionary dreams of much of his social class he will need to push popular legislation whose attraction is in both Parties. His chance to privatize the Interstate Highway System to monopolistic gougers is gone, and there will be no effective anti-union legislation. There will be no further tax cuts unless those involve a rescission of his insane and destructive tariffs. He will continue to push reactionary federal judges as long as he is President, and Republican stooges as obedient as those in the Reichstag between 1933 and 1945 will endorse everyone of them. The only reason for him to not appoint his doggie to a federal bench is that he has no pooch as a pet. 

He has been shaking things up -- but so does an earthquake and so does an amusement-park ride that spins one around. You know that ride -- you get to feel what a 0.25% BAC feels like with a genuine BAC of 0.00%

President Trump must get his approval ratings into the middle-to-high 40's to have a meaningful chance of getting re-elected even if he has the advantage of the structure of the American population working to the favor of Republicans. In theory he can win the Presidency with even a lower percentage of the popular vote than Mike Dukakis got in 1988.

Those who voted for him thinking that he wouldn't be that bad have often found that he is even worse than expected.  He may have thrown away one single-issue constituency usually an easy win for Republicans -- those concerned primarily about national security.

He still does not understand the Presidency, and he seems not to be learning. He is not an attorney, which is ordinarily the best career preparation for high public office. Sure, there are other smart people such as physicians, engineers, accountants, architects, research scientists, creative people, and college professors, but all of those career groups tend to have their faults. Unlike attorneys, those people have narrow specializations largely irrelevant to the office. Running a business? Harry Truman had poor results as a businessman and went over to elective politics that better suited his talents. Next-best might be a military officer who understands the state-within-a-state as a political reality and potential model. Trump lacks all experience in elective or appointed office and makes mistake that would get one a low grade on a high-school civics test.

Strange things can happen, but at this point it is a race between his potential to learn (which rarely increases at his age and any possible organic deterioration of his mind. Is he media savvy? He certainly is not Ronald Reagan   

[Person Man]

The next 100 days will be critical to understanding whether President Donald Trump will win a second term in office. His approval rating has been consistently low during his first term. Yet his supporters could always point out that approval ratings before an election year have not historically been correlated with reelection success.

But by mid-March of an election year, approval ratings, though, become more predictive. Presidents with low approval ratings in mid-March of an election year tend to lose, while those with strong approval ratings tend to win in blowouts and those with middling approval ratings usually win by small margins.
Let's start with where Trump is right now: an approval rating in the low 40s. Since World War II, two presidents have had an approval rating at or below 45% in mid-March of an election year. George H.W. Bush had an approval rating at 39%, while Jimmy Carter's was at 45% and falling fast. Both of them went on to lose reelection by greater than 5 points.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there have been five presidents with an approval rating of 55% or above. There was Bill Clinton at 55%, Ronald Reagan at 55%, Richard Nixon at 58%, Dwight Eisenhower at 72% and Lyndon Johnson at 80%. All of these presidents won their elections by nine points or greater.
Finally, we have the group of presidents with approval ratings between between 46% and 54%. This includes Gerald Ford at 47%, Barack Obama at 47%, George W. Bush at 49% and Harry Truman at 51%. All of their elections were decided by less than 5 points.
Ford didn't win.

https://us.cnn.com/2019/12/07/politics/trump-100-days-reelection-analysis/index.html

Interesting, and somewhat encouraging, because I don't see how Trump ever consistently makes it into the 46-54% average range.

Of course, Trump being the anomalous enigma he usually is could make this yet another irrelevant predictor. I still wouldn't count him out.

That last part is the one thing he can do. He is extremely gifted at playing the media in the way that people want and think they can play him.

[pbrower2a]

https://firehousestrategies.com/analysis/december_2019_battleground_survey/

Michigan

Trump : 46% (41% in September)
Biden : 41% (42% in September)

Trump : 47% (42% in September)
Warren : 38% (41% in September)

Trump : 48% (43% in Sept)
Sanders : 42% (40% in Sept)

Trump : 48%
Buttigieg : 37%


Pennsylvania

Trump : 46% (41% in Sept)
Biden : 41% ((45% in Sept)

Trump : 47% (41% in Sept)
Warren : 40% (43% in Sept)

Trump : 48% (42% in Sept)
Sanders : 38% (44% in Sept)

Wisconsin

Trump : 48% (42% in Sept)
Biden : 39% ((44% in Sept)

Trump : 50% (42% in Sept)
Warren : 37% (43% in Sept)

Trump : 51% (43% in Sept)
Sanders : 38% (49% in Sept)

Trump : 49%
Buttigieg : 38%

"Likely voters", whatever that means.Maybe for a 2014 electorate?

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Dec. 3-4, 628 LV

Trump 46, Biden 44
Trump 45, Buttigieg 43
Trump 47, Warren 41
Trump 47, Bloomberg 40
Trump 47, Sanders 34

Only 25% of those polled are under 45...that looks again like an electorate of 2014.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Impeachment is backfiring on the Dems, the Dems can still win, but it probably is a neutral election cycle not a wave election and if it's a 2016 election,  in a neutral election, Trump can win Wiz. Dems are nominating a corrupt Hilary in Biden, again

I said this was gonna happen, but I hoped I was wrong

[Person Man]

Impeachment is backfiring on the Dems, the Dems can still win, but it probably is a neutral election cycle not a wave election and if it's a 2016 election,  in a neutral election, Trump can win Wiz. Dems are nominating a corrupt Hilary in Biden, again

I said this was gonna happen, but I hoped I was wrong

If its a neutral year, that means Trump will win. If Trump does well in the Great Lakes, that means Democrats need to be more moderate and go after winnable votes in places like Texas, Florida, Georgia, NC, and Arizona instead of going after people in WI,MI and PA.

Well, either find a Bill 2.0 or find a way to get millions of people out to the polls who just don't care about what's going on right now. That's what Trump did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Impeachment is backfiring on the Dems, the Dems can still win, but it probably is a neutral election cycle not a wave election and if it's a 2016 election,  in a neutral election, Trump can win Wiz. Dems are nominating a corrupt Hilary in Biden, again

I said this was gonna happen, but I hoped I was wrong

If its a neutral year, that means Trump will win. If Trump does well in the Great Lakes, that means Democrats need to be more moderate and go after winnable votes in places like Texas, Florida, Georgia, NC, and Arizona instead of going after people in WI,MI and PA.

Well, either find a Bill 2.0 or find a way to get millions of people out to the polls who just don't care about what's going on right now. That's what Trump did.

Nancy Pelosi, as minority leader, also said when Ryan was Speaker., Congress should walk and chew bubblegum at the same time when Ryan and GOP were investigating Benghazi. Dems are doing exactly what Ryan did, consume all the Congressional time on oversight and not pass laws in protecting Biden.

Trump can run against the do nothing Congressional Dems as Obama did in 2012, and House can flip R

[Person Man]

Impeachment is backfiring on the Dems, the Dems can still win, but it probably is a neutral election cycle not a wave election and if it's a 2016 election,  in a neutral election, Trump can win Wiz. Dems are nominating a corrupt Hilary in Biden, again

I said this was gonna happen, but I hoped I was wrong

If its a neutral year, that means Trump will win. If Trump does well in the Great Lakes, that means Democrats need to be more moderate and go after winnable votes in places like Texas, Florida, Georgia, NC, and Arizona instead of going after people in WI,MI and PA.

Well, either find a Bill 2.0 or find a way to get millions of people out to the polls who just don't care about what's going on right now. That's what Trump did.

Nancy Pelosi, as minority leader, also said when Ryan was Speaker., Congress should walk and chew bubblegum at the same time when Ryan and GOP were investigating Benghazi. Dems are doing exactly what Ryan did, consume all the Congressional time on oversight and not pass laws in protecting Biden.

Trump can run against the do nothing Congressional Dems as Obama did in 2012, and House can flip R

If the House flips, every party leader should resign that morning.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Impeachment is backfiring on the Dems, the Dems can still win, but it probably is a neutral election cycle not a wave election and if it's a 2016 election,  in a neutral election, Trump can win Wiz. Dems are nominating a corrupt Hilary in Biden, again

I said this was gonna happen, but I hoped I was wrong

Because of one poll from a C-grade pollster?

[Progressive Pessimist]

The next 100 days will be critical to understanding whether President Donald Trump will win a second term in office. His approval rating has been consistently low during his first term. Yet his supporters could always point out that approval ratings before an election year have not historically been correlated with reelection success.

But by mid-March of an election year, approval ratings, though, become more predictive. Presidents with low approval ratings in mid-March of an election year tend to lose, while those with strong approval ratings tend to win in blowouts and those with middling approval ratings usually win by small margins.
Let's start with where Trump is right now: an approval rating in the low 40s. Since World War II, two presidents have had an approval rating at or below 45% in mid-March of an election year. George H.W. Bush had an approval rating at 39%, while Jimmy Carter's was at 45% and falling fast. Both of them went on to lose reelection by greater than 5 points.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there have been five presidents with an approval rating of 55% or above. There was Bill Clinton at 55%, Ronald Reagan at 55%, Richard Nixon at 58%, Dwight Eisenhower at 72% and Lyndon Johnson at 80%. All of these presidents won their elections by nine points or greater.
Finally, we have the group of presidents with approval ratings between between 46% and 54%. This includes Gerald Ford at 47%, Barack Obama at 47%, George W. Bush at 49% and Harry Truman at 51%. All of their elections were decided by less than 5 points.
Ford didn't win.

https://us.cnn.com/2019/12/07/politics/trump-100-days-reelection-analysis/index.html

Interesting, and somewhat encouraging, because I don't see how Trump ever consistently makes it into the 46-54% average range.

Of course, Trump being the anomalous enigma he usually is could make this yet another irrelevant predictor. I still wouldn't count him out.

That last part is the one thing he can do. He is extremely gifted at playing the media in the way that people want and think they can play him.

Not only that but national numbers aren't as helpful in our national electoral system consisting of 51 plus simultaneous elections rather than one actual national election.

[Inmate Trump]

Impeachment is backfiring on the Dems, the Dems can still win, but it probably is a neutral election cycle not a wave election and if it's a 2016 election,  in a neutral election, Trump can win Wiz. Dems are nominating a corrupt Hilary in Biden, again

I said this was gonna happen, but I hoped I was wrong

Any Democrat will be "corrupt" according to Trump and the GOP.

Seriously...no matter the nominee, they will be called corrupt for any number of stupid and/or make believe reasons.

[pbrower2a]

One of the supreme ironies is that wicked people often consider themselves paragons of goodness. As an example, the discredited NAMBLA offered pederasty as the best thing that could ever happen to a boy. Slave owners of the antebellum South often asserted that slavery was the most reliable means of bringing Christianity and civilization to Africans. The Khmer Rouge,mostly brought up in a religion that assumed reincarnation of the dead, could trivialize the deaths in their Killing Fields. The Inquisitors who had backsliding converts burned at the stake claimed a humane purpose in preparing the damned for the eternal flames of Hell. It is arguable that Hitler thought the Holocaust a great service to Humanity as a whole for eliminating 'racial' evil, including a Jewish conspiracy to exploit, humiliate, and dominate gentiles. Sure it all seems absurd, but evil people are as capable of vindictive judgment as good people.

Self-righteous people can be evil, too. Some people have the capacity to do horrible deeds and still think themselves good.