Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's something to kick off the New Year, with the usual caveat: take polling during the holidays with a grain of salt.

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Dec. 28-31, 1500 adults including 1123 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 47 (-2), No 41 (nc)

Remove Trump: Yes 45 (+1), No 41 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 52 (+3), No 43 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 48 (+1), No 44 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 50 (+3), Trump 40 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 50 (+3), Trump 40 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

There has been no polling of his approval since 12/27 so I don’t know how RCP averages that

Rasmussen has continued to publish its daily tracker every weekday, skipping Dec. 25/26 and Jan. 1/2.  Also, the latest Harvard/Harris poll went through 12/29 and the latest Economist/YouGov through 12/31.

I hate to keep repeating myself, but polling during the holidays should always be taken with a grain of salt.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Mexico: Emerson, Jan. 3-6, 967 RV

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Sanders 59, Trump 41
Buttigieg 55, Trump 45
Biden 54, Trump 46
Warren 54, Trump 46

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data, Jan. 6-7, 1115 adults.  This is usually weekly, but they skipped the last two weeks for the holidays. 

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

As low as "strongly approve" was, a 3% drop in the absolute number is about 12% in the category. This suggests that the core support of Donald Trump is eroding. 

Not necessarily.  26% strong approval in the previous poll was unusually high and apparently a blip; 23% is more typical of where it's been for the past couple months. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 5-7, 1500 adults including 1185 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 48 (+1), No 41 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 45 (nc), No 43 (+2)


RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 51 (-1), No 44 (+1)

Remove Trump? Yes 47 (-1), No 44 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 49 (-1), Trump 41 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (-2), R 40 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: PPP, Jan. 2-4, 760 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Biden 46, Trump 46
Trump 47, Sanders 46
Trump 47, Warren 45
Trump 47, Buttigieg 44


Iowa: PPP, Dec, 29-31, 964 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 48

This seems unusually high for Trump compared to other Iowa polls.

Trump 49, Buttigieg 48
Trump 49, Biden 46
Trump 49, Sanders 44,
Trump 49, Warren 44

[GeorgiaModerate]

Warren 49, Sanders 44

We should be so lucky.

LOL.  I fixed the OP - it's Trump 49, Warren 44.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: Glengariff Group, Jan. 3-7, 600 LV via live phone interviews

Approve 47
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 50, Trump 43
Bloomberg 47, Trump 41
Sanders 49, Trump 45
Buttigieg 45, Trump 43
Warren 46, Trump 44

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wisconsin: Fox News, Jan. 5-8, 1504 voters (change from Oct.)

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Remove Trump?  Yes 44, No 48

Biden 46, Trump 41
Sanders 46, Trump 42
Warren 44, Trump 42
Buttigieg 42, Trump 41ac


Nevada: Fox News, Jan. 5-8, 1505 voters

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Remove Trump?  Yes 46, No 47

Biden 47, Trump 39
Sanders 46, Trump 41
Warren 43, Trump 42
Buttigieg 41, Trump 40

[GeorgiaModerate]

Which poll is he looking at?

I'm not aware of any recent poll with Trump as high as 53.  He hit 51 for a few days, and 52 for one, in Rasmussen during the pre-Christmas bump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Which poll is he looking at?

I'm not aware of any recent poll with Trump as high as 53.  He hit 51 for a few days, and 52 for one, in Rasmussen during the pre-Christmas bump.

Why not make up polls?

A poll recently found that GeorgiaModerate would beat Trump 73%-24%. It is a shame that you decided not to run.

 If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Jan. 8-12, 1562 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 34 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: 51/46
Remove Trump: 46/48

Was killing Soleimani the right action to take?

Right action 45
Wrong action 41

Should Trump consult with Congress if he plans to launch more military strikes in the Middle East?

Yes 65
No 29

Impact of killing Soleimani on the safety of Americans:

More safe 32
Less safe 45
No impact 18

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, Jan. 7-12, 1259 adults including 1064 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

Remove Trump: Yes 47 (+1), No 47 (-2)

RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico national tracker, Jan. 10-12, 1996 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 25
Strongly disapprove 43

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 31
Probably Trump 8
Probably someone else 7
Definitely someone else 45
(Net: Trump 39, someone else 52)

GCB: D 42, R 39

Approve of impeachment: 49/43

Remove Trump: 49/43

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 11-14, 1500 adults including 1108 RV

Note: this week's sample is somewhat more Republican and less Democratic than is usual for this poll, which likely accounts for at least some of the movement.

Adults:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 45 (-3), No 43 (+2)

Remove Trump: Yes 42 (-3), No 43 (nc)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

Strongly approve 31 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 48 (-3), No 47 (+3)

Remove Trump: Yes 45 (-2), No 46 (+2)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (-2), Trump 42 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (-2), R 42 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Jan. 13-14, 1119 adults including 919 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)


RV (not broken out last week):

Approve 41
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 25
Strongly disapprove 45

[GeorgiaModerate]

*posts approval rating poll*

It is impressive how you never grow tired of posting polls that always show exactly the same thing.

Oh wait, didn't someone say there was suddenly huge movement and Trump's approval rating was surging?

The main reason is simply that I've always, ever since I was a kid, had a fascination for numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Civiqs, Jan. 11-14, 1464 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Remove Trump?  Yes 49 (-1), No 48 (+1)

2020: Generic D 48 (-2), Trump 44 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nice visualization:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1217929031305310216

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is an interesting article from 538 regarding an alternative method of measuring Trump's approval.  Instead of simple approval/disapproval, this survey asks whether the respondent views Trump more or less favorably than each of several other Republicans.

Before the midterms, Trump’s favorability rating was statistically indistinguishable from Pence’s, and only Palin was rated less favorably. Following impeachment, Trump was even lower relative to the other Republicans we asked about. Not only is he the least popular president to run for reelection since Gerald Ford according to polls asking the standard presidential approval question, but in our measure, he is now also rated less favorably than his vice president.
...
But the bottom line is that the president appears even more unpopular than previously thought, and more disliked than the standard presidential approval question is able to reveal. Although the electoral implications of Trump’s unpopularity and impeachment remain to be seen, the data we do have isn’t promising for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Jan. 2-15, 1014 adults (1-month change)

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Remove Trump?  Yes 46 (nc), No 51 (nc)

Though public opinion currently tilts against removing Trump from office, more want to see the Senate remove him than wanted the same for Bill Clinton after he was impeached by the House in 1998. In several polls conducted in January and early February 1999, an average of 33% of Americans were in favor of the Senate convicting Clinton and removing him from office, while 63% were opposed.

The president's own party is about as opposed to impeachment for Trump as the Democratic Party was for Clinton; but the opposition party and political independents are more strongly aligned against Trump than they were against Clinton.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia: AJC/UGA, Jan. 6-15, 1025 RV

NOTE: beginning with this poll, UGA is now weighting by education (previously it was weighting only by race, age, and sex).  As such, this poll result is not comparable to previous AJC/UGA polls.

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

Strongly approve 35
Strongly disapprove 42

2020: Plan to vote for Trump 44, against him 47

Has Trump committed an impeachable offense? Yes 45, No 50

Regarding removal, I don't like the way this question is framed: "At the end of the impeachment process, what do you think should happen to President Trump? Should he be removed from office by the Senate, or should the voters be allowed to decide his fate in the 2020 election?"

Remove 38, voters decide 58

Favorability numbers:

Donald Trump 47/50
Brian Kemp 55/35 (Kemp job approval: 60/31)
David Perdue 52/30 (Perdue job approval: 51/28)
Kelly Loeffler 23/20
Doug Collins 35/18

Joe Biden 35/57
Bernie Sanders 36/58
Elizabeth Warren 31/55
Pete Buttigieg 22/49

I'm glad they've started weighting by education, but these numbers seem a little too R-friendly to me.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the CNN poll.  Jan. 16-19, 1156 adults including 1051 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 44

Remove Trump?  Yes 51 (+6), No 45 (-2)

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 45

Remove Trump? Yes 49 (+4), No 47 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the CNN poll.  Jan. 16-19, 1156 adults including 1051 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 44

Remove Trump?  Yes 51 (+6), No 45 (-2)

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 45

Remove Trump? Yes 49 (+4), No 47 (-1)

I cant seem to find the separate RV numbers in the CNN poll, what page are they on?

You have to pull them out of the crosstabs for each question (the crosstabs are at the end of the release).  That's why I didn't go back to last month's poll to get the changes...more work than I'm in the mood to do.