Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is not gonna flip D in 6.6% unemployment, that's why HEGAR got the Valdez treatment and was blanched.

Castro or Beto are the only ones that can win a statewide office. But, OH and FL are still in play Brown is up for reelection and Rick Scott is an endangered species in 2024 and FL has voted for Inc Prez 2004, 2008, 2020.  

IA and TX have fallen off the battleground and as long as they want Reynolds and Ernst and Grassley will remain in office

ME 2 will go back D in 2024 you see 413 is improbable but 300/350 is probable

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 15-17, 1500 RV

RV:

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

Should Trump concede?  Yes 60 (nc), No 40 (nc)


Biden voters (N=809):

Approve 3 (nc)
Disapprove 95 (-2)

Strongly approve 1 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 90 (-2)

Should Trump concede?  Yes 95 (+1), No 5 (-1)


Trump voters (N=568):

Approve 94 (-1)
Disapprove 6 (+2)

Strongly approve 72 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 2 (+1)

Should Trump concede? Yes 21 (-1), No 79 (+1)

[Horus]

Should Trump concede? Yes 21 (-1), No 79 (+1)

Pathetic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mcconnell already said on Jan 7th after Electors are read in front of It Session of Congress, and Harris resigns her seat, a Prez will be selected, and that will be Biden whom will have majority of Electors, until then, we just have to wait

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Lmao @ the 5% of Biden voters who don't want Trump to concede.

How do you explain these voters?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lmao @ the 5% of Biden voters who don't want Trump to concede.

How do you explain these voters?

Either:

1) They think he has a right to exhaust all his legal avenues first, or

2) They don't really care whether he concedes or not.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It is good to see that Trump's approvals seem to be (possibly) trending slightly down after the election.

If that holds up, that may help to give Dems a chance in the GA-SEN runoff elections.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Should Trump concede? Yes 21 (-1), No 79 (+1)

Pathetic.

I'm actually surprised that it's as high as it is. 

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/apalmerdc/status/1329035321846194176

What was the highest Trump got? Didn't he start out the gate in January 2019 around inauguration with like 49% approval or something?

Interested to see how high the 'intro bump' is for Biden/Harris.

The first polls typically begin with measures of favorability (optimism about the winning pol).

It was an inauspicious start for Trump. Most who voted against him had very low expectations. Regrettably, Trump failed to meet that.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has never been at 51 percent approvals his entire Prez

[pbrower2a]

He has had plenty of opportunity to make his case. His administration has been one crisis following another. Nothing has culminated in an incontrovertible victory. The best that could have ever happened is for something to cool down while nothing else emerges.

The saving grace for him, the one that has kept his disapprovals from reaching the 70's or so, is that the same people who despise him for one thing are the ones who despise him for others. So people who hate his ethnic and religious bigotry also hate his foreign policy, his environmental policy, and his handling of COVID-19. Trump has his cult, and it is arguably the biggest cult that has ever existed. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Nov. 13-17, 1346 adults including 1121 RV

Adults:

Approve 37 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)


RV:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)


They also asked about approval of Biden as President-elect, which I'll post in the Biden approval thread.

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Nov. 13-17, 1346 adults including 1121 RV

Adults:

Approve 37 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)


RV:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)


They also asked about approval of Biden as President-elect, which I'll post in the Biden approval thread.

My estimate of how that looks on a map.

This is what some called the nutty 413-EV vote, but this did seem possible. The tie that I show reflects that Donald Trump won Alaska by 10.09% of the vote

That of course is not how the election went. Republicans will be well advised to distance themselves as completely as possible from the cry-baby sore loser. Staying latched to Trump is one way to give the Democrats a surprising edge in the 2022 midterm elections.

[Inmate Trump]

Any guesses on how low Trump’s approval rating will get before January 20th?

I’m going to say mid to low 30s.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC was overrated as a battleground as so was TX

[pbrower2a]

NC was overrated as a battleground as so was TX

I have my explanation:

1. North Carolina was a real battleground. It was surprising to me that Georgia went to Biden and that North Carolina went to Trump.

2. Texas is becoming increasingly a microcosm of America, at least politically. Texas is in no particular region in America (El Paso might as well be in New Mexico or even Arizona as in any other part of Texas; most of Texas to the north and west of the Dallas-Fort Worth "Metroplex" is really Midwestern (Yes, the state university in Wichita Falls, Texas is called "Midwestern State University") and has more in common with Nebraska than with any other part of Texas; "East Texas" might as well be an extension of the Deep South; the Oil Patch areas have their own regional distinction, and the Lower Rio Grande Valley is culturally an extension of Mexico. Move south of Laredo and Corpus Christi, and you would be well advised to learn Spanish or you could be very lonely. It is hard to place what region of America Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston belong in.

Texas used to be as a whole far poorer and uneducated than America as a whole; that is over. It is now likely ahead of Ohio, and certainly Indiana, and possibly Michigan in that regard. Texas has large minority populations, and even if many in them are assimilating economically, they generally still care about their own poor. That is the difference between the middle-class white vote and the middle-class black and Mexican-American vote in orientation.

3. Florida went for Trump because Trump was able to work on one single issue among Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American voters: disdain for the Castro and Maduro regimes for dictatorship and Marxist socialism. Trump accused Biden of being aligned with Raul Castro and Nicolas Maduro as a socialist. (I see a darker thread: with dictatorial powers in a second term Trump had his ideas of 'liberating' Cuba and Venezuela and establishing plutocratic puppets more like Pinochet than like any liberal democrat). Donald Trump is a 'mirror-image Marxist', the sort of person who sees how Commies depict capitalism as exploitative and dehumanizing... and endorses the exploitation and dehumanization of capitalism at its worst.

I prefer the sorts of anti-communists who simply recognize Marxism-Leninism as an obsolete failure in economics and falling short of the humanistic pretensions of M-L. I prefer Vaclav Havel to Agosto Pinochet -- don't you?

4. Black Lives Matters probably had little effect on the vote on net. Consider where I am on law and order: I prefer rigid law enforcement without police brutality. I have nothing but contempt for lawlessness (and you ought to see my rationale for same-sex marriage and adoption by same-sex couples). Do the crime and do the time, I say. But police brutality of the sort that Black Lives Matters opposes does nothing to make law enforcement more effective. Sure, pull a gun on a cop and expect to die, especially when the cops have bullet-proof vests and can pump a crook with a hail of bullets before the crook can point to the cop's face or neck or do much the same after an ineffective shot to the chest of the cop.

Of course America has plenty of primitives who do not care how many innocent or marginally-culpable (misdemeanor or non-homicidal offenders) get killed by the cops should those people have black or brown skins. Such people are with Trump. 

5. COVID-19 effectively made it far easier to vote, whatever one's position on the political spectrum. It did make political canvassing far more difficult, if not unreasonable. Democrats usually do this far more effectively than Republicans in such states as Minnesota (which went decisively for Biden), Michigan (which barely went for Biden), Iowa (which went decisively for Trump), and Ohio (see also Iowa). Indiana went more decisively R than usual in a Democratic win for the Presidency.

Biden far underperformed late-season polling. In a normal year, the sort of polling that Trump had (and it was atrocious) would have led to a landslide rejection of Trump. The canvassing that makes such possible (and that would have been the difference between Joni Ernst getting defeated and re-elected in Iowa) wasn't possible. President Trump had his reckless super-spreader rallies that in the end will kill more people than any votes that he got for participating in them... in 2022 we may see the consequences. In 2022, COVID-19 will have disappeared, and then only because of medical science which is not a miracle. Democrats will be canvassing again in senatorial, congressional, and gubernatorial races. Donald Trump could well be political poison even in some states that he won.

Canvassing is effective when Democrats do it.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Reuters most recent Job Approval for Donald Trump is 38%.

10 days ago, 47% voted for him.

Good to see the polls are still bullsh**t.

[pbrower2a]

Reuters most recent Job Approval for Donald Trump is 38%.

10 days ago, 47% voted for him.

Good to see the polls are still bullsh**t.

COVID-19 is still killing, and the President himself is trying to steal an election that he lost. Yes, he lost it.  What may be so is that more people can't imagine that he lost.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah that explains alot why Ds didn't win that 413 EC map and TX, IA didnt flip to D's and D's lost ME and NC Senate races with 6.6% percent Unemployment.. But, Biden still made ways in establishing a 291/247 EC map and GA runoffs may go D due to Trump refusing to concede, Trump polls aren't 38%, more like 46%

But, Trump has never been above 51% like every other Prez has, that's why he was defeated.

Bush W the lone R since Reagan won reelection due to ,911, but Katrina tsunami damaged McCain chances

[BigSerg]

Reuters most recent Job Approval for Donald Trump is 38%.

10 days ago, 47% voted for him.

Good to see the polls are still bullsh**t.

[roxas11]

Reuters most recent Job Approval for Donald Trump is 38%.

10 days ago, 47% voted for him.

Good to see the polls are still bullsh**t.

Im not sure they are wrong on this

A lot of people who had a personal disliked of Trump still ended up voting for him anyway because they either liked his policies or they disliked the Dems way more   

now that Trump has lost they no longer have a reason to pretend to like him anymore and as a result we may be seeing trumps approval ratings starting to reflect that.

[Devout Centrist]

Reuters most recent Job Approval for Donald Trump is 38%.

10 days ago, 47% voted for him.

Good to see the polls are still bullsh**t.

I mean, he can have a 100% approval rating on January 19th for all I care.  He lost.

[Person Man]

Reuters most recent Job Approval for Donald Trump is 38%.

10 days ago, 47% voted for him.

Good to see the polls are still bullsh**t.

I mean, he can have a 100% approval rating on January 19th for all I care.  He lost.

This happens after a candidate lose. People who felt they only voted for them because they were supposed go back to denying they supported them at all.

You know how I said that if the Democrats totally botched the election (instead of half botching it), that I would be reregistering as an Independent (I might still reregister as a Republican if I am in Florida for primaries)? Well, I'm not the only one who would distance themselves for those that can't deliver.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 21-24, 1500 RV

Trump:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

Strongly approve 31 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+2)


Biden ("Do you approve or disapprove of the way President-Elect Joe Biden is handling the post-election period?"):

Approve 55 (+1)
Disapprove 37 (+3)

Strongly approve 40 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 26 (nc)

[pbrower2a]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 21-24, 1500 RV

Trump:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

Strongly approve 31 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+2)


Biden ("Do you approve or disapprove of the way President-Elect Joe Biden is handling the post-election period?"):

Approve 55 (+1)
Disapprove 37 (+3)

Strongly approve 40 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 26 (nc)

Exasperation to hope.