Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Progressive Pessimist]

AOC has pushed Pelosi too far to the left and this is Pelosi last term as Speaker or minority leader, the D's put term limits on Speakers, and Pelosi is vulnerable to a Cherri Bustos challenge if she bucks the party. But, there is a CR due on 12/1 and Leader McConnell or Trump  can make D's stay in DC if they don't agree to another stimulus. Trump said he wanted a stand alone stimulus by 10/1, Pelosi is the obstructionist, they can sign a stand alone stimulus until Biden is sworn in. But Pelosi has gone too far. ACB will get to the Crt, Murkowski will likely vote for ACB in a lame duck session, she said she will wait til after election but she confirmed all of Conservative justices except for Kavanaugh.

All will have sway if Trump wins narrowly or Biden wins in a landslide

aOC wants to go full socialist and Barrett Crt is likely to moderate alot of those programs in a 6/3 or 6/5 Crt

Pelosi is not the obstructionist. The House passed a relief bill months ago, but McConnell has done nothing in the Senate, and Trump blew up talks for something new last week.

Thing is, Trump doesn’t seem to understand that he is to blame when things don’t get better — nobody thinks to go blame the Speaker of the House or the Senate Majority Leader.

Don't waste your time arguing with Olawakandi. His algorithm is going to reset soon enough and then he'll start agreeing with you anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course voters aren't gonna say Pelosi is the blame for not passing the stimulus bill AA are very blunt and will say that Pelosi is the blame for not passing stimulus, they aren't aligned to Unions, she is a Union boss

That's why most AA won't donate to Act blue, if they do donate, they will donate directly to campaign, it's a Union lead campaign to Pack the Crts  to get rid of Citizens United


I don't like Pelosi and since Joe Kennedy, Obama and Hillary were the only candidates I cared to donate to, I won't donate to Act blue anymore

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 11-13, 1500 RV including 1333 LV

RV:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 49 (nc)

Biden 46 (nc), Trump 37 (-1)

GCB: D 43, R 37 (not asked last week)


LV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 50 (nc)

Biden 52 (+1), Trump 42 (nc)

GCB: D 49, R 41

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 11-13, 1500 RV including 1333 LV

RV:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 49 (nc)

Biden 46 (nc), Trump 37 (-1)

GCB: D 43, R 37 (not asked last week)


LV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 50 (nc)

Biden 52 (+1), Trump 42 (nc)

GCB: D 49, R 41

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 11-13, 1500 RV including 1333 LV

RV:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 49 (nc)

Biden 46 (nc), Trump 37 (-1)

GCB: D 43, R 37 (not asked last week)


LV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 50 (nc)

Biden 52 (+1), Trump 42 (nc)

GCB: D 49, R 41

Russian Bear! You're back!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Oct. 9-13, 1303 adults including 1120 RV and 882 LV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-2)

Biden 43 (-1), Trump 37 (nc)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-3)

Biden 48 (-1), Trump 39 (-1)


LV:

Biden 51 (-1), Trump 41 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC (monthly), Oct. 8-12, 1121 adults

Approve 39 (-4)
Disapprove 61 (+5)

Strongly approve 22 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Last month's result was unusually high for Trump from AP, which is generally one of his worst pollsters, and looked like an outlier at the time.

[woodley park]

Is there any correlation between AP approval and re-election when it is this close to election day? I can't image 41% is a good sign.. let alone the disapproval over 60%.

[pbrower2a]

Is there any correlation between AP approval and re-election when it is this close to election day? I can't image 41% is a good sign.. let alone the disapproval over 60%.

Rather early I predicted that approval and disapproval numbers would correlate to match-up numbers, and that those involving the President would dominate all else. So it was in 2004 and 2012, and so it would be in 2020. The President sets the agenda, and whether he succeeds or fails at getting it enacted  in a way that people like is more important than how strong or weak the opponent is. The match-up that comes from 42% approval and 57% disapproval of President Trump will result in something like a 57-42 defeat in the popular vote. OK, which set of approval and disapproval numbers will I go with?

The electoral match-up numbers will tell us everything. Electoral results will of course be definitive. By then this and its predecessors will be of interest to those who look in the archives.   

I predicted that it would apply both at state and nationwide polls. I considered disapproval more telling than approval because disapproval is giving up home in the President.  It is far easier to raise approval among the undecided than to undo disapproval.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is finished that's😭😭😭 why Rs are walking around acting like Covid doesn't exist and he has his live rallies and and Trump was exposed to Covid. Trump has gone rouge, wearing no mask and the businesses that he protects make consumers wear masks

Rs are in denial due to the fact they have become dominant and won 16/20 elections but are the minority of the country, due to restraint in spending. Rs represent the rural states and D's represent the bigger states Biden will at least win 70 M votes while Trump will be in the mid 60s and the 2020s are the new D era😆😆😆

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Trump's approval is higher than 41 '92 and Carter '80, but lower than Clinton, Bush or Obama.

[Person Man]

Trump's approval is higher than 41 '92 and Carter '80, but lower than Clinton, Bush or Obama.

All of them got roughly their net approval ratings in terms of NPV. HW and Carter did better because there was a third party alternative.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 18-20, 1500 RV including 1343 LV

RV:

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Strongly approve 30 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (-2)

Biden 47 (+1), Trump 40 (+3)

GCB: D 47 (+4), R 40 (+3)


LV:

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 31 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 48 (-2)

Biden 52 (nc), Trump 43 (+1)

GCB: D 50 (+1), R 43 (+2)

[afleitch]

Trump's approval is higher than 41 '92 and Carter '80, but lower than Clinton, Bush or Obama.

All of them got roughly their net approval ratings in terms of NPV. HW and Carter did better because there was a third party alternative.

Looking at 538, both W and Obama got 1.04 times their approval in PV and on average their opponents got 1.03 times their dissaproval. That would get Trump about 44.8% two party PV and Biden 55.2%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup (twice monthly), Sep. 30-Oct. 15, 1035 adults

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

[Person Man]

Gallup (twice monthly), Sep. 30-Oct. 15, 1035 adults

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

This is Trump's last JA poll before the election. He can't with this.

[woodley park]

Down to 42.4% on 538, with 13 days to go..

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trump's approval is higher than 41 '92 and Carter '80, but lower than Clinton, Bush or Obama.

All of them got roughly their net approval ratings in terms of NPV. HW and Carter did better because there was a third party alternative.

Looking at 538, both W and Obama got 1.04 times their approval in PV and on average their opponents got 1.03 times their dissaproval. That would get Trump about 44.8% two party PV and Biden 55.2%.

Interesting. 44% is my guess of what Trump's final share ends up as. The more interesting question is what Biden's share will be? Does he get 50-52 with a relatively high share of third party voters? Or does he consolidate those third partiers and get up to 54 or 55?

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG Economic Survey (monthly), Oct. 17-20, 1100 adults including 994 RV

Adults:

Approve 35 (nc)
Disapprove 60 (+1)

RV:

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The approvals are being measure by his wrong track, v right track numbers

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Oct. 16-20, 1346 adults includings 1158 RV and 949 LV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+4)

Biden 46 (+3), Trump 37 (nc)


RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+4)

Biden 50 (+2), Trump 38 (-1)


LV:

Biden 51 (nc), Trump 42 (-1)

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs, 10/18

National: 41/56 (-15)

Alaska: 46/52 (-6)
Arizona: 44/54 (-10)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 45/53 (-8)
Georgia: 45/52 (-7)
Iowa: 47/51 (-4)
Kansas: 49/48 (+1)
Maine: 35/62 (-27)
Michigan: 41/57 (-16)
Minnesota: 40/58 (-18)
Montana: 48/50 (-2)
Nevada: 40/56 (-16)
New Hampshire: 37/59 (-22)
New Mexico: 44/53 (-9)
North Carolina: 44/54 (-10)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 49/48 (+1)
Texas: 48/50 (-2)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 43/55 (-12)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[pbrower2a]

Civiqs, 10/18

National: 41/56 (-15)

Alaska: 46/52 (-6)
Arizona: 44/54 (-10)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 45/53 (-8)
Georgia: 45/52 (-7)
Iowa: 47/51 (-4)
Kansas: 49/48 (+1)
Maine: 35/62 (-27)
Michigan: 41/57 (-16)
Minnesota: 40/58 (-18)
Montana: 48/50 (-2)
Nevada: 40/56 (-16)
New Hampshire: 37/59 (-22)
New Mexico: 44/53 (-9)
North Carolina: 44/54 (-10)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 49/48 (+1)
Texas: 48/50 (-2)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 43/55 (-12)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

This may be my last approval/disapproval map before the election.

Trump approval 51-53%
Trump approval net 42% or less positive but under 50%
exact tie or net approval negative but under 50% white
disapproval 50-52%
disapproval 53 or 54%
disapproval 55% or higher

Trump will lose every state in red or maroon. Pink is iffy. There are no surprises in states in gray; they wiil vote as in 2016, if probably not as strongly for Trump. Disapproval means giving up hope in this President.

I hope that I am not simply speaking for myself, but Americans seem to have tired of Donald Trump and on the whole are ready for change.

[Bootes Void]

41 % approval is awful for reelection

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Trump said a vaccine was coming by election day and it didn't come, no end to these lockdowns, voters are asking what's gonna be different in second term than first if you can't come up with the cure, elect the change candidate Biden. Who won't create trickled down economics. The same thing was ask in 2008 when McCain ran on third term Bush W when the other Recession hit

In addition to the fact Pence disappeared again, when Dick Cheney disappeared, his wife Lynne was involved in politics and campaigned for Bush W and Jill Biden campaigns for Joe, not the 2nd ladies, I have never heard Pence wife in politics