Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why hasn't pbower2A has been putting up any approval rating maps, he has been quiet as of late. I think it's due to Barrett, the SCOTUS vacancy irregardless what happens will cement a Conservative majority on the Crt for perhaps until 2032, as long as Alito and Thomas are there.

Biden even he gets in, will be hampered by a 6/5 or 6/3 Conservative majority, that was the point I was making thru these threads.

Citizens United probably stays until then too, Unions when RBG died tried to get donations for all these candidates like Espy and McGrath and HEGAR whom have 0 chance and they are obstructing the stimulus bill. Bob Casey, Manchin, and Sinema have broke with Pelosi on 300 instead of 600 in a 7.9 percent unemployment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why Pittsburgh attacked me when I was comending Barrett, our ballots are secret, we can tell you who we are gonna vote for, but we are free to criticize any politicians

[pbrower2a]

Why hasn't pbower2A has been putting up any approval rating maps, he has been quiet as of late. I think it's due to Barrett, the SCOTUS vacancy irregardless what happens will cement a Conservative majority on the Crt for perhaps until 2032, as long as Alito and Thomas are there.

Biden even he gets in, will be hampered by a 6/5 or 6/3 Conservative majority, that was the point I was making thru these threads.

Citizens United probably stays until then too, Unions when RBG died tried to get donations for all these candidates like Espy and McGrath and HEGAR whom have 0 chance and they are obstructing the stimulus bill. Bob Casey, Manchin, and Sinema have broke with Pelosi on 300 instead of 600 in a 7.9 percent unemployment

For much of the Trump era, approval numbers have been portents of the Presidential election. What does matter is the match-ups, and those seem to be close to approval numbers in state and national numbers. Trump is extremely polarizing; people love him or hate him as President. I noticed in two statewide poll that showed approval numbers that Trump's share of the vote is likely to be close to his approval rating and Biden's vote is likely to be close to Trump's disapproval rating.

Most significantly, time is running out for President Trump (at least for winning re-election), hospitalization or not. I'm not going to speculate on his chances of recovery, let alone his ability to wage a spirited (if perverse) campaign. Trump needs a spirited and competent campaign to have a chance of winning, which was just as true eleven months ago as it is now. What has changed is that time is running out. Football teams come back from 17-point deficits in the first quarter all the time at all levels of the game.  NFL teams win (I would guess) about 95% of all teams in which they have 17-point leads at the start of the fourth quarter  (equivalent to early August this year) and win over 99% of the time with five minutes left in the game and a 17-point lead.  Electoral politics, like football, is a timed sport, and even small leads become decisive. As in football there are strategies for teams with 17-point leads in the first quarter to kill opportunities for an opposing team to make a comeback. It's easy to say that two touchdowns and a field goal can cause such a lead to evaporate, and I have seen that happen often. On the other hand, the team with the lead can chance its offense to a more conservative running game that grinds down the clock and put five defensive backs (the "nickel defense") in the backfield to make long pass plays ineffective and risky for the offense. The team behind needs two more touchdowns to win than does the team with the lead... because nobody gets six field goals in a game.  

There is much that I cannot say. I am not in the prophecy business. The closest that I get is in using probabilities lifted and perhaps modified from others with caveats on applicability.      

[pbrower2a]

I posted this on page 1 of this thread as an amendment, and this is the basis for my model for the "short game":

...how important are leads with time? Close to Election Day, electoral leads of even 1% can give the leader nearly 2/3 of a chance of winning the state. Leads that may not look 'that bad' for the nominee behind in polling can go from troubling to ominous to politically lethal over a year even if the lead remains the same.

  I just got my hands on Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (why so many predictions but some don't)It relates probability well, and as I have suggested, being up 5% in a binary election a year before means little, being up 5% a month before the election is huge. It is from 2012, and it relates much other than elections (like sports, poker, and even chess). What it says of electoral leads as a campaign approaches its conclusion is telling.

On page 63, Figure 2-4 shows the probability of a Senate candidate winning (1998 to 2008) with a certain lead (1, 5, 10, and 20 points) at one year, six months, three months, one month, one week, and one day. Because statewide races for President are much like statewide races for the Senate -- with the qualification that Presidential nominees do not usually make appearances where they see themselves losing -- unless they really are losing nationwide.

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

(I am going to put this back in my "electoral theory" section because it will remain relevant.

So what conclusions can I draw? You might be surprised that a five-point lead one month before Election Day is no less significant than a twenty-point lead one year before the election. Thus one hears things like Democrats saying "We have a chance of winning West Virginia if everything goes right" and Republicans say that they have a chance of winning Massachusetts... yadda, yadda, yadda. Or is it "Yabba, dabba, doo!" Likewise, being one point ahead on the day before the election is worth almost as much as being five points ahead six months before the election or even ten points ahead  a year before the election.

(I expect to put this or something like it in the upcoming "2022 Elections" and "2024 Elections" threads that will be of interest after this election winds down)

Caveats:

1. This is about Senate races. Senate races, like contests for the Electors of any one state, are statewide elections. There are simply more of them than are Presidential elections. I would expect more noise about Presidential races.

2. Presidential campaigns can triage themselves out of races that they see as sure wins or sure losses. Presidential nominees who have big leads can make campaign trips to support Senate candidates in states in which they expect themselves to lose to support a Senate candidate. A Senate nominee cannot triage himself out of a race that he is likely to lose.

3. I am going on individual states for Presidential races.

4. I am rejecting obvious hack polls such as those of TRAshy FALsehood GARbage* that attempt to keep the spirits up of those supporting a nearly-sure loser. I also reject those insider polls that seem advocacy for one side. Insider polls are useful for saying that a state rarely polled isn't going to go for a certain nominee. I'll take an insider poll that tells me what just about anyone can reasonably expect such as that Donald Trump is going to win South Dakota or that Joe Biden is going to win Maryland. 

5. Outliers happen, and they can say things about events that people who do not know the local political climate may see happening that the rest of us don't. Maybe some challenger has an unusually well-run and well-funded campaign against someone beloved elsewhere but struggling in his state. Many liberals could not see Russ Feingold going down to defeat in 2010, but they did not recognize that the Republican Party and front groups had opened the spigots. "Money makes ze vorld go around, ze vorld go around, ze vorld go around" (from the cynical musical and movie Cabaret). 

*TRAshy FALsehood GARbage? Someone tweeted an internal document stating that they could give their clients the results that they want as a special service.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are caveats to this election that can still go Prez Trump's way, 7.9 percent unemployment, as 661K workers go back to work, and a 1.6T stimulus package, if it's passed Trump can get credit, if it's not passed Pelosi can be viewed as an obstructionist, Bob Casey, Manchin, Sinema and blue dogs in the House have broken with Pelosi on her 600, unemployment extension.  Also, the Rs are gonna confirm Barrett by election day which can help his polls with female women that Pence doesn't appeal to

Trump is he underdog, but he isn't at 39 percent or 41 percent, Sabato said middle class voters swing back and forth as they did in 2016, and Trump can still win, it's called the silent majority

[Devout Centrist]

Trump's approval rating is now higher than at any point in his presidency except immediately post-inauguration and during his pandemic bump. With just a month to go until his re-election, it continues to barrel higher with no sign of slowing.

Frankly, Beet, I don't know what to tell you, except that Elizabeth Warren would be doing worse now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do we really put all of our faith in polls, they can be wrong

[Pick Up the Phone]

Also, the Rs are gonna confirm Barrett by election day which can help his polls with female women that Pence doesn't appeal to

As long as Biden wins the male women vote, he'll be fine.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Do we really put all of our faith in polls, they can be wrong

There are, like, 8 different personalities that are fighting for dominance within you, and I have no idea which one is winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do we really put all of our faith in polls, they can be wrong

There are, like, 8 different personalities that are fighting for dominance within you, and I have no idea which one is winning.

Bagel has multiple personalities as well, he post Democratic billboards of candidates he support and then he says Good for Trump or James.

I am upset with Pelosi for not compromising on the 1.6T stimulus package, Leader McConnell and Trump and Grassley says they will pass it, but Pelosi want 2.4T. we shouldn't have to wait til Jan for the stimulus, in order for Biden to get sworn in, we need that money.  My family outside forum feels the same way, but I am a D

[pbrower2a]

Trump's hideous approval ratings have gotten him here:

We are one month away from Election Day, so the line in boldface applies.

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

Things are likely worse for Trump in states in which he has gone behind by 10% or more. But sticking to this model I can interpolate on a assumption that the probability rises in a linear fashion, which may itself be an understatement in much of the range. Arbitrarily I am going to treat any 15% lead one month away as giving either nominee a 99%+ chance of winning, and I am not going to make distinctions above 99%.

Lead	%win
00	50
01	57
02	63
03	69
04	75
05	81
06	85
07	89
08	91
09	93
10	95
11	96
12	97
13	98
14	99
15+	99+

So based solely on the latest credible poll of the last week or so, based on the chance of Biden winning:

AL: Auburn University: Trump +20 (any surprise?)
NYT/Siena: AZ - Biden+8
DE-UDEL: Biden +21 (any surprise?)
NM-New Mexico Political Report/PPP: Biden +14
PPP-NC: Biden +4
ND: DFM Research: Trump +14
PA: Ipsos: Biden +5
UT: Y2 Analytics: Trump +10
WI: Ipsos: Biden +6
CBS: Tied in OH; Biden +7% in PA
MO - MO Scout/Remington: Trump+5 (Biden has an outside chance of winning a state that hasn't been close since 2008)
NJ - DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler: Biden +14%
NYT/Siena: Biden +7% in PA,
NYT/Siena: Biden +5% in FL
AZ - Strategies 360/Smart and Safe Act: Biden +4% (marijuana advocacy)
GA-Redfield & Wilton: Biden +1
Hart Research (D): Biden leads GA (taken, but +2%) and NC (Biden +2) , Trump OH, IA and TX(all Trump +2)
New York (Siena): Biden +32
Redfield & Wilton: Biden +9 in MI (before debate, others taken)
Redfield & Wilton: Biden +5 in WI (before debate)
VA - Daniel Gade internal (R) - Biden +10% (I have seen worse for Trump in Virginia)
NH-Emerson: Biden +7
Data for Progress: Biden -5 in SC (others taken)
OR-Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +17
KS-Civiqs/Daily Kos: Trump +10
CA: Survey USA: Biden +27
IL-Victory Research: Biden +13
ND-DFM Research: Trump +19
MPR News/Star Tribune/KARE-11 Minnesota Poll: Biden 48 Trump 42

The states below rarely get polled, so some of the polls may be old.

MD-OpinionWorks: Biden +32
OK-Amber Integrated: Trump +22
AK-Harstad Strategic Research/Independent Alaska (I/D): Trump +1 (that's Alaska)
Fox News: Biden+11 in NV
VT - Braun Research: Biden +23%
WA (Strategies 360): Biden +22
ME: Suffolk - Biden +12
NYTimes/Siena - Montana: Trump+7
NE-02 - Global Strategy Group (D): Biden +6%
UT-Hinckley Institute/Scott Rasmussen: Trump +18
CO-Global Strategy Group/Progress Now Colorado (D): Biden +11

Chance:
95% or higher for the leader saturation 8
85-94% for the leader saturation 6
70-84% for the leader saturation 5
60-69% for the leader saturation 4
51-59% for the leader saturation 2

exact tie white

[GP270watch]

I am upset with Pelosi for not compromising on the 1.6T stimulus package, Leader McConnell and Trump and Grassley says they will pass it, but Pelosi want 2.4T. we shouldn't have to wait til Jan for the stimulus, in order for Biden to get sworn in, we need that money.  My family outside forum feels the same way, but I am a D

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313551794623127552

It's like he's trying to lose the election by normal standards because he has another plan to steal it.

Saying no stimulus before the election is going to get him hammered. People know the Democrats have already passed multiple bills with all the components that the public supports by huge margins when polled: like direct stimulus payments, increased unemployment benefits, Covid relief money for testing and hospitals, and money for states.

[pbrower2a]

There are caveats to this election that can still go Prez Trump's way, 7.9 percent unemployment, as 661K workers go back to work, and a 1.6T stimulus package, if it's passed Trump can get credit, if it's not passed Pelosi can be viewed as an obstructionist, Bob Casey, Manchin, Sinema and blue dogs in the House have broken with Pelosi on her 600, unemployment extension.  Also, the Rs are gonna confirm Barrett by election day which can help his polls with women that Pence doesn't appeal to

Trump is he underdog, but he isn't at 39 percent or 41 percent, Sabato said middle class voters swing back and forth as they did in 2016, and Trump can still win, it's called the silent majority

A large part of the American electorate was willing to make great sacrifices to defeat COVID-19.  They could tolerate having their favorite bars, restaurants, and libraries closed for a while. Had the whole of America done as  Michigan did, then we would probably be opening up by now. Masks and social distancing did far more to stall COVID-19 than did medicine.

At this point I can't even say that President Trump will serve a full term. He did get COVID-19, and he is an obvious candidate for death from it. This election could easily decide between Biden and Pence instead of between Biden and Trump. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 4-6, 1500 RV including 1364 LV

RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 29 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 49 (+2)

Biden 46 (nc), Trump 38 (nc)

They don't seem to have asked about GCB this week.


LV:
 
Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 30 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+2)

Biden 51 (+1), Trump 42 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Oct. 2-6, 1328 adults including 1123 RV and 882 LV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

Biden 43 (-2), Trump 37 (-1)


RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Biden 49 (+1), Trump 39 (-2)


LV:

Approve 43
Disapprove 57

Strongly approve 28
Strongly disapprove 47

Biden 52 (+1), Trump 40 (-2)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT and AK and TX oil and gas states aren't going D, Emerson has the states safe R. The polls showing 12 JUNK THEM

[Progressive Pessimist]

Do we really put all of our faith in polls, they can be wrong

There are, like, 8 different personalities that are fighting for dominance within you, and I have no idea which one is winning.

You figured it out! Olawakandi has the same condition as James McAvoy in 'Split!' It all makes sense now!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do we really put all of our faith in polls, they can be wrong

There are, like, 8 different personalities that are fighting for dominance within you, and I have no idea which one is winning.

You figured it out! Olawakandi has the same condition as James McAvoy in 'Split!' It all makes sense now!

You have heard the term blue wave, haven't you, I never said WI was R WOW counties and PA was R version of VA, I always said that Biden was favored to win a 278 or 291 blue wall map, but the question of course is, will there a blue wave, a 334 or 413 mao. Last night I said it won't be a blue wave since Emerson said Bullock was down by nine, but I rethought it, and always said Bullock can win while Cooney loses

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why isn't pbower2A posting that much and his approval maps.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why isn't pbower2A posting that much and his approval maps.

During the long gap between elections, approval ratings are a fairly good substitute for head-to-head polls.  But now that we're close to the election, we have the real thing; there are plenty of head-to-head polls, which are better than using approval ratings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pbower 2A has barely been on recently, he still can post in the threads and why are you answering for him?

[pbrower2a]

Pbower 2A has barely been on recently, he still can post in the threads and why are you answering for him?

Why isn't pbower2A posting that much and his approval maps.

During the long gap between elections, approval ratings are a fairly good substitute for head-to-head polls.  But now that we're close to the election, we have the real thing; there are plenty of head-to-head polls, which are better than using approval ratings.

Because I am predictable.

Typically approval and disapproval numbers give a fairly good estimate of the upcoming vote. They were stable over a surprisingly-long time (basically between the impeachment effort and the Party conventions).

Trump has his base, and he never was especially far from the sort of vote characteristic of a large-scale loser. Trump got just under 46% of the popular vote; he simply got the "right" votes and may not be so charmed this year. Hillary Clinton ran up popular vote totals in a few states predictably D (like CA, WA, NY, MA, NJ, and MD) but the vote was close in a bunch of states in which Trump got an edge.

I thought well before the election that the best predictor of a vote total in any one state was 100-DIS because Trump is the incumbent this time. I interpreted "disapproval" as meaning "I will vote for someone else who is adequately reasonable". If Trump disapproval in a state was 55%. then he had practically no chance of getting much more than 45% of the vote in that state. In a binary election, such is losing. That is how things worked for Dubya in 2004 and Obama in 2008, and I did not see any reason to see any other dynamic in operation in 2020.

"Disapproval" can mean anything from "I will not vote for him because he is inadequate" to "I'd like to watch him experience the same fate as Saddam Hussein (hanging)". I'm not going to make a distinction in that range because the electoral process makes no such distinction.       
   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AOC has pushed Pelosi too far to the left and this is Pelosi last term as Speaker or minority leader, the D's put term limits on Speakers, and Pelosi is vulnerable to a Cherri Bustos challenge if she bucks the party. But, there is a CR due on 12/1 and Leader McConnell or Trump  can make D's stay in DC if they don't agree to another stimulus. Trump said he wanted a stand alone stimulus by 10/1, Pelosi is the obstructionist, they can sign a stand alone stimulus until Biden is sworn in. But Pelosi has gone too far. ACB will get to the Crt, Murkowski will likely vote for ACB in a lame duck session, she said she will wait til after election but she confirmed all of Conservative justices except for Kavanaugh.

All will have sway if Trump wins narrowly or Biden wins in a landslide

aOC wants to go full socialist and Barrett Crt is likely to moderate alot of those programs in a 6/3 or 6/5 Crt

[woodley park]

AOC has pushed Pelosi too far to the left and this is Pelosi last term as Speaker or minority leader, the D's put term limits on Speakers, and Pelosi is vulnerable to a Cherri Bustos challenge if she bucks the party. But, there is a CR due on 12/1 and Leader McConnell or Trump  can make D's stay in DC if they don't agree to another stimulus. Trump said he wanted a stand alone stimulus by 10/1, Pelosi is the obstructionist, they can sign a stand alone stimulus until Biden is sworn in. But Pelosi has gone too far. ACB will get to the Crt, Murkowski will likely vote for ACB in a lame duck session, she said she will wait til after election but she confirmed all of Conservative justices except for Kavanaugh.

All will have sway if Trump wins narrowly or Biden wins in a landslide

aOC wants to go full socialist and Barrett Crt is likely to moderate alot of those programs in a 6/3 or 6/5 Crt

Pelosi is not the obstructionist. The House passed a relief bill months ago, but McConnell has done nothing in the Senate, and Trump blew up talks for something new last week.

Thing is, Trump doesn’t seem to understand that he is to blame when things don’t get better — nobody thinks to go blame the Speaker of the House or the Senate Majority Leader.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Many AA are much poorer than other races she is going by AOC, AOC said on Rachel Maddow that since Trump pulled out of stimulus talks, the D's are gonna seek a filibuster proof majority.

I separate Pelosi from the Prez race, I don't have a high opinion of her, I lived in SF and she has the highest homeless rate in the country in her own district. Speaker is on term limits anyways, next term is her last term in leadership and I will be glad she will be gone

AA have a high opinion of Harris, and Biden advanced Clarence Thomas to the floor of the Senate, that's why they vote D, not Pelosi or Biden. Biden needed Harris he wasnt doing well with AA like he should have