Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

Cool, man, you've found a paper that implied that there were 70% that recession would be in 6 month from nov 2019.

that the implied recession probability in the six months after November 2019 is 70%, and for the 12 months after is 86%.

Like I said, 95% of experts think, that will be modest, but still descent growth.
2-percent'ish growth to be more specific.

I know it hurts, but that is what most experts predict  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Russian bear, you spoke too soon. Today, the jobs openings number was released and posted the largest loss on record:

Cool, brah, but as I said, most economist predict a modest-to-descent growth ~2% and robust JOBS JOBS JOBS! Despite harmfull, but IMO necessary trade wars.

A bit lower-than-expected Q1 depends on Boeing, fears of corona-virus and trade wars. All gone by the election day.


According to failing NyT Uppshot>

The Election Year Economy Is Everything Trump Could Hope For
Even if presidents have less sway over the economy than is widely assumed, perception can be important.

There was never much doubt that President Trump would make boasts about the economy central to his re-election campaign; that is his style, after all. What is becoming more clear is that the data on the economy are giving him something genuinely worth boasting about.

That was especially evident in the first employment numbers of 2020, released Friday morning. It was about as good a jobs report as an incumbent president could hope for nine months before Election Day — and not just in obvious ways.

The big headline out of the latest numbers was that employers added 225,000 jobs in January, comfortably more than analysts had expected. That alone suggests that economic growth is steady at a minimum, and maybe accelerating as the year begins.

The seemingly bad news in the report — the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent — was actually driven by positive underlying trends. The share of adults either working or looking for work rose to 63.4 percent, its highest level since mid-2013. And the share of adults between ages 25 and 54 who were employed reached 80.6 percent, its highest level since mid-2001.

For years, an open question was whether the many Americans who dropped out of the labor force in the aftermath of the Great Recession would ever come back in. The answer is a resounding yes.

Then there are wages, which have been the weak spot of the employment picture for years. They still are: Average hourly earnings are up only 3.1 percent over the past 12 months, below the rates being recorded for most of last year (the same measure rose 3.5 percent for the year ended in August).

Although most sectors of the economy are revving, creating jobs at a healthy pace, there is a notable exception. Manufacturers cut 12,000 jobs in January, the second straight month of decline.

This partly reflects the effects of the trade war, and may reflect ripple effects from Boeing’s shutdown of production of its troubled 737 Max plane. There’s no telling how the politics of the manufacturing slump may play out in key battleground states.

The good news for the Trump administration is that this opens the door for a rebound in the sector between now and Election Day. Already, the calming of trade tensions with China with a “Phase One” deal in January has settled financial markets. And a key survey of manufacturers suggests that the sector swung from contraction to expansion in January.

Stop wishing recession, brah, it will hurt the poors most. It ain't cool.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A warning about Trump popularity: William Weld got about 10% of the primary vote at the stage at which I last saw the results for the New Hampshire primary. Yes, the Republicans had a primary in New Hampshire.

Considering that the President dominates the airwaves these days except on political ads and news not involving Democratic campaigns, such bodes ill for Trump in November. Many Republican voters can imagine better.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227610766662127616

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I wouldn't read a lot (in either direction) into turnout for a primary in which there's an incumbent with no significant challengers.

Trump actually held a rally just before the Republican primary, which is unusual. Obama didn't. Obama seemed not to like wasting Presidential time or government funds.

What I noticed was that 9.1% of the Republican primary vote went to William Weld and a small number to write-ins, indicating that many Republicans have cold feet about Trump.

Let us put it this way -- the Democrats together got 296,622 votes, which is fewer than 50K away from what Hillary Clinton won in 2016.   

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227716314409709569

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

FEB 14-17, 2020
A+
ABC News/Washington Post
1,066 A
913 RV


All Adults:
Approve 43% (-1 since JAN 20-23)
Disapprove 53% (+2)

RV:
Approve 46% (-1)
Disapprove 52% (+2)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-abc-news-poll-feb-14-17-2020/99074fb9-691e-4399-af1e-e6534d53a9d8/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

FEB 13-16, 2020
A+
Marist College
1,416   A
1,164   RV



All Adults:
Approve 42% (+1 since JAN 7-12)
Disapprove 51% (-1)

RV:
Approve 44% (+2)
Disapprove 51% (-1)


http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Wednesday-Release_NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_2002171446.pdf





For what is worth 538 (RV) is now showing Trump -4,2 under water - 45,9/50,1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Trump's vote share 2016: 45.9%

As of today 538 (RV) : 45.8%
As of today RCP : 46.0%

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

While we're at meaningless statistics.


Obama favs were at ~60% (+25) when he first won. He got 53%.
Trump favs were at ~35% (-25). He got 46%.

Different times. You see what I mean?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Trump's vote share 2016: 45.9%

As of today 538 (RV) : 45.8%
As of today RCP : 46.0%

Net share 2016 -2.1%

Net approval 538 (RV): -4.3%
Net approval RCP (RV): -5.1%


With Real LV Trump will probably get ~1%, so he still needs to get 2-4% in "net approval" depending on how third-party candidates look like. That is if this "impeachment bump" is not temporary which very well might be the case.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1230130711342067713
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1230132469128728576

If I said this (and I did!) you would yell @me calling me "arrogant" (and you did!)


"Add Trump's likely advantage with LVs and in the Electoral College, and Trump's could be very close to the place where he needs to be, if he isn't there already."

Nate Cohn (NyT Upshot) is even more optimistic than I am! "if he isn't there already", he says. I don't think, he's already there. I think, he'd probably lose if elections was held today. But if he eases a trade wars, ~leaves Afghanistan and promotes his ability to keep appointing conservative judges, it will be probably Trump's to lose on November 2020.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/286280/trump-job-approval-steady.aspx

FEB 3-16, 2020
B
Gallup
1,028 A

Gold Standard Live B pollster.


Approve 49 (no change since JAN 16-29)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Trump's approval rating may be higher because of the Senate's acquitting him in the impeachment trial. Bill Clinton's job approval ratings also were higher spanning the time between his impeachment in late 1998 and his acquittal in early 1999. Americans' generally positive and improved perceptions of the state of the nation are also likely a contributing factor.

Acquittal and Trumponomy Bump! Who could have known? (Everyone!)


To unskewers:

Even if Gallup did weight the sample to some prior estimate of party identification, the president's overall approval rating would still be his highest to date because of the observed higher job approval among independents and Republicans. Party weighting, which would slightly decrease the influence of Republican responses and slightly increase the influence of independent and Democratic responses on the final estimates, would reduce the job approval estimate by one or two percentage points.

We'll see if there Bumps are temporal ones.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Interesting from Gallup:

Gallup's most recent job approval figures for Trump have been slightly higher than recent polls from other organizations, though the disapproval figures from each are essentially the same. Part of the difference in approval, then, results from generally lower "No opinion" percentages in Gallup polls, suggesting that some who might not indicate an opinion about Trump would say they approve if probed. Gallup probes initial "Don't know" responses to see if people might have a leaning in one direction or the other, which likely explains why Gallup tends to have fewer expressing no opinion in its polls compared with other organizations. It is possible that soft attitudes toward Trump in recent weeks have been more favorable toward him than usual, explaining why those initial "Don't know" respondents are disproportionately willing to rate Trump positively when probed.

Gallup "presses" undeciders more than other pollsters, and lately these tend to be soft Trump's Silent Majority. Interesting. But while Gallup is good pollster, it is not very good, so difficult to draw solid conclusions from these.



To deniers unskewers >>>

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1230506652878635008

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1230521733976903682

Thread.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I don't know where to put it, so I've decided to put it here.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1231993525623021575

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1232494118137294850

YOU'RE WELCOME!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

Economy Approval went down, though. First effect of coronavirus? I expect his approval to go down as well.

Economy Approval:
54 (-2)
42 (+4)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

Economy Approval went down, though. First effect of coronavirus? I expect his approval to go down as well.

Economy Approval:
54 (-2)
42 (+4)

The Trump economy has always been a piper tiger. He inherited an objectively good economy and has done nothing to impact it.

Cutting taxes and raising deficit spending adding a Keynesian boost. It's a tragedy to boost the deficit when the economy's at full blast since we need to be able to borrow when we really need it, but it does have an effect.

That's how Populist Boomers roll! We spent like there is NO TOMORROW! We are going to spent all we want and we'll make Millennials pay for it, hahaha! 




https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/MLSP58Toplines.pdf
FEB 19-23, 2020
A/B
Marquette Law School
1,000   RV

WI
48/48   (Economy 56/41)


https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1575&context=survey_center_polls
FEB 19-25, 2020
B
University of New Hampshire
576   LV

NH
45/53  (Economy 57/38)



https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6788733/FULL-RESULTS-Morning-Call-Muhlenberg-College.pdf
FEB 12-20, 2020
A+
Muhlenberg College
424   RV

PA
42/50 (Economy 58/34)


People love Trump Economy! 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Georgia: UGA, Feb. 24-March 2, 1117 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 46

Strongly approve 38
Strongly disapprove 39

Trump 51, Biden 43
Trump 52, Sanders 41
Trump 40, Bloomberg 42
Trump 52, Warren 42

I don't doubt that Trump is popular/ahead here, but this seems a little too favorable for him.

Yea, this seems off.

Probably because they're polling "Likely Voters" in February/March.

Judging from the crosstabs, they're under-sampling younger people and minorities (for example, white people are 66% of this sample; they were 60% in 2016 according to the CNN exit poll). I suspect the younger people and minorities just aren't making it through their "Likely Voter" screen (which shouldn't be used until closer to the election anyway)

Exit Polls tend to underestimate white old rural voters w/o college degree.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So it seems as though Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are stabilizing.

I'd wait for a high-quality polls. The most recent A-rated Gold Standard Poll is Fox News from FEB. 23-26, that is before outbreak started for real. The Democrats and their "Free" Press has considerably boosted their anti-Trump propaganda hoax. Looking at their other hoaxes (Russia Hoax and Impeachment Garbage), one notice, that they always work at beginning until the facts catch up. Schiff might even claim that there is a smoking gun that Trump colluded with Russia to infect Biden or something _{(just kidding)}.

If you listen to The Democrats and their "Free" Press, you might start thinking that USA's respond was like the worst in the world LOL. It is obviously false. In any case, we'll see it soon enough.


That is, I expect Trump's approval to worsen a little, rebounding when/if economy rebounds/virus is gone.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

When Gold Standard Live pollsters showed Trump getting all-time-high the unskewers said that you should istead look at online trash pollsters because muh "non-response bias". Now when these trash pollsters starts to show better numbers for your favorite Boomer President, the unskewers confess "Tracking polls aren’t reliable" 


Me? I'll wait for Gold Standard. With that said, I expect people to love Boomer Populist Power. Trump is gonna print so many $$$, you all gonna be tired of printing!   

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Monmouth, March 18-22, 851 adults (1-month change)

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

This is Trump's best-ever showing in this poll.

Some interesting coronavirus questions:


Please tell me if each of the following has done a good job or bad job dealing with the
coronavirus outbreak:

Your state's governor 72/18 (good/bad)
Federal health agencies 65/24
President Trump 50/46
Congress 42/37
Media 45/43
The public 38/45


Have the measures taken by the federal government to slow the spread of the virus been
appropriate, have they gone too far, or have they not gone far enough?

Appropriate 47
Too far 6
Not far enough 45


Same question for state government:

Appropriate 62
Too far 9
Not far enough 25

Among RV

Approval:
48 (+4)
48 (-3)


Trump Corona Approval:
51/45

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

MAR 20-23, 2020
Global Strategy Group/GBAO
1,038   RV
https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F03.23.20.pdf


Approve 47 (+6)
Disapprove 49 (-7)


Corona:
Approve 52 (+10)
Disapprove 42 (-7)


Economy:
53/43

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

MAR 20-23, 2020
Global Strategy Group/GBAO
1,038 RV
https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F03.23.20.pdf


Approve 47 (+6)
Disapprove 49 (-7)


Corona:
Approve 52 (+10)
Disapprove 42 (-7)


Economy:
53/43

This just shows how fluid the situation is. There's no way he has a +10 approval on the economy when we're literally about to hit a recession

It's not Trump's fault, obviously. People are not stupid to blame Trump for this.


But it will change depending of Trump handling it. Hopefully, today Congress will agree on huge stimulus helping people and business. Thank God, Trump is a populist, not a muh fiscal conservative!


Another stat from this poll RE: Corona
B2. Below is a list of issues. Please indicate who you would trust more to handle each one
Responding to the coronavirus outbreak

Democrats in Congress 39%
President Trump 45%

Despite MSM working hard blaming Trump for everything (including shutting down flights from China JFC).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

MAR 13-22, 2020
B
Gallup
1,020   A
https://news.gallup.com/poll/298313/president-trump-job-approval-rating.aspx

49 (+5 since March 2-13)
45 (-7)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I’m not so sure that this can just be chalked up to a rally effect. Does half this country even agree that there is a crisis to rally around? Does anyone really think people on the East and West coasts are rallying around a guy basically absolving himself of all responsibility and leaving them to their own devices?

Moreover, I thought that "rally around the flag" usually happens because nations unites, that is President is praised by both parties and, of course, by MS, no???
Now the opposite happens.