Erie County, PA - All Democrats Lead Trump

[wbrocks67]

A poll of Erie! This is pretty cool!

Erie swung pretty hard to Trump in 2016, but then swung hard back to the Dems in 2018.

2016
Trump 48.0%
Clinton 46.4%

2018 Senate
Casey 58.4%
Barletta 40%

2018 House
DiNicola 59.3%
Kelly 39.8%

ERIE COUNTY, PA POLL
Mike Bloomberg 51, Trump 41
Bernie Sanders 50, Trump 44
Joe Biden 48, Trump 44
Amy Klobuchar 46, Trump 42
Pete Buttigieg 46, Trump 42
Elizabeth Warren 46, Trump 45

*this was before the NV debate though and before Bloomberg's drumming.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/trump-democrats-pennsylvania-poll-erie-county-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-20200225.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump and his tax cuts are gonna go home

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Neato! You don't see many county-level polls!

[Mr. Illini]

Fantastic news! Bellweather county!

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are the October numbers
https://www.google.fr/amp/s/www.goerie.com/news/20191002/mercyhurst-poll-biden-leads-trump-among-erie-county-voters%3ftemplate=ampart

Trump was down by 14 against Biden and by 5 against Sanders.

[Frenchrepublican]

These numbers don’t surprise me a lot, I expect Trump to lose Erie County even if he wins PA again, midterm results show that 2016 was more an aberration than anything else

[wbrocks67]

Here are the October numbers
https://www.google.fr/amp/s/www.goerie.com/news/20191002/mercyhurst-poll-biden-leads-trump-among-erie-county-voters%3ftemplate=ampart

Trump was down by 14 against Biden and by 5 against Sanders.

Goes to show just how much Biden has deteoriated

[Politician]

Bloomberg is doing better than Biden or Sanders? #WWCPopulistsforBloomberg

[RI]

Neato! You don't see many county-level polls!

That's because they're very difficult to do well and tend to be very noisy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These numbers don’t surprise me a lot, I expect Trump to lose Erie County even if he wins PA again, midterm results show that 2016 was more an aberration than anything else

As stated before Trump won PA and WI due to incumbent advantage of Toomey. It's best for Dems to target Portman, 2022, as well as Toomey and WI open seat, due to Toomey being pro gun control, and Kate McGinty was Grimes of 2016, due to Bloomberg ads on his behalf

[MT Treasurer]

Trump is losing ground in way too many parts of PA (not just Erie, but also Pittsburgh + suburbs, Southeastern PA/Delaware Valley, college towns) for me to feel comfortable rating it a pure Tossup. His win in 2016 was certainly very impressive (more so than his win in WI), but it’s looking more and more like an aberration.

He’ll keep it close, but it’s hard to see him actually winning PA again. It’s pretty obvious that WI is the much better bet for him.

[Matty]

Do county level polls have a good track record?

[RI]

Do county level polls have a good track record?

As I said above, they're hard to do well. The smaller the amount of people you're polling, the harder it is to find enough people to participate and the harder it is to get a representative sample.

Consider these county polls from September 2016 (actual in paretheses):

Jefferson CO: Clinton +2 (Clinton +7)
Hillsborough FL: Trump +1 (Clinton +7)
Washoe NV: Trump +17 (Clinton +1)
Watauga NC: Trump +8 (Clinton +2)
Sandusky OH: Trump +7 (Trump +23)
Luzerne PA: Trump +15 (Trump +19)
Loudoun VA: Clinton +2 (Clinton +17)
Hamilton OH: Clinton +1 (Clinton +10)
Northampton PA: Trump +8 (Trump +4)
Door WI: Clinton +9 (Trump +3)

The average error on these polls is 10 points, which is HUGE.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

We should start #BernieSoUnelectable

That should be a thing.

I'll go first. #BernieSoUnelectable that he's winning back Erie County by more than Scranton-man Joe Biden.

I guess maybe the excuse will be that there is an intra-state rivalry, they are on other sides of the state after all?

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump is losing ground in way too many parts of PA (not just Erie, but also Pittsburgh + suburbs, Southeastern PA/Delaware Valley, college towns) for me to feel comfortable rating it a pure Tossup. His win in 2016 was certainly very impressive (more so than his win in WI), but it’s looking more and more like an aberration.

He’ll keep it close, but it’s hard to see him actually winning PA again. It’s pretty obvious that WI is the much better bet for him.

You use a county poll (which are notoriously unreliable and lag way behind the trend of counties) where Trump is 4 points behind where he was in 2016 to say that 2016 was an aberration?

[MT Treasurer]

Trump is losing ground in way too many parts of PA (not just Erie, but also Pittsburgh + suburbs, Southeastern PA/Delaware Valley, college towns) for me to feel comfortable rating it a pure Tossup. His win in 2016 was certainly very impressive (more so than his win in WI), but it’s looking more and more like an aberration.

He’ll keep it close, but it’s hard to see him actually winning PA again. It’s pretty obvious that WI is the much better bet for him.

You use a county poll (which are notoriously unreliable and lag way behind the trend of counties) where Trump is 4 points behind where he was in 2016 to say that 2016 was an aberration?

That + actual statewide polls + actual election results + obvious trends + the fact that he ran against a deeply unpopular and flawed Democrat in 2016 and still only barely won the state (yes, the fact that his opponent was Hillary Clinton kinda matters...)

Trump could still win PA, but to act like it couldn’t possibly be any worse than a hyper-competitive Tossup for him under any circumstances is silly.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump is losing ground in way too many parts of PA (not just Erie, but also Pittsburgh + suburbs, Southeastern PA/Delaware Valley, college towns) for me to feel comfortable rating it a pure Tossup. His win in 2016 was certainly very impressive (more so than his win in WI), but it’s looking more and more like an aberration.

He’ll keep it close, but it’s hard to see him actually winning PA again. It’s pretty obvious that WI is the much better bet for him.

You use a county poll (which are notoriously unreliable and lag way behind the trend of counties) where Trump is 4 points behind where he was in 2016 to say that 2016 was an aberration?

That + actual statewide polls + actual election results + obvious trends + the fact that he ran against a deeply unpopular and flawed Democrat in 2016 and still only barely won the state (yes, the fact that his opponent was Hillary Clinton kinda matters...)

Trump could still win PA, but to act like it couldn’t possibly be any worse than a hyper-competitive Tossup for him under any circumstances is silly.

PA is full of literally millions of shy Trump voters who will always support him because of all the winning in the steel industry. The shy, and the meek, and the downtrodden love Trump, a man of the people. These people are so shy, when the pollsters (all very intimidating college types) call them, they panic and are unable to answer, throwing off their numbers.

Toxic waste poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Trump loses Erie County he loses Pennsylvania. Enough said.

[TML]

If Trump loses Erie County he loses Pennsylvania. Enough said.

Tell that to Senator Joe Sestak.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump loses Erie County he loses Pennsylvania. Enough said.

Tell that to Senator Joe Sestak.

Toomey won due to Bloomberg running ads on his behalf due to being pro gun control

[Brittain33]

If Trump loses Erie County he loses Pennsylvania. Enough said.

Tell that to Senator Joe Sestak.

We’re pricing in a drop in R support in suburban Philly since Sestak’s race.

[Yellowhammer]

A county-level poll taken 9 months before the general election shows us the gospel truth, donchaknow?

[MT Treasurer]

If Trump loses Erie County he loses Pennsylvania. Enough said.

Tell that to Senator Joe Sestak.

Yes, and Joe Sestak also won Lackawanna County by 20 points while losing Chester by 7. Do you actually foresee this happening again in 2020?

[IceSpear]

If Trump loses Erie County he loses Pennsylvania. Enough said.

Tell that to Senator Joe Sestak.

Yes, and Joe Sestak also won Lackawanna County by 20 points while losing Chester by 7. Do you actually foresee this happening again in 2020?

Yes, obviously.

#TrendsAreFake
#PartyLikeIts2004

[Badger]

Fantastic news! Bellweather county!

I will nitpick hearing say the Erie is not a bellwether. It has been reliably Democratic event compared to Statewide results by a margin of several points. It just swung huge to Trump last time to the point it actually voted about a percentage point more Republican than the state, something near unheard of and it's voting history even as recently as 2012.

Nitpicking aside, this is reasonably good news as Democrats almost surely need to flip Erie County back to win the state. I'm reasonably confident they will.