KY-SEN 2020: Can Rocky Adkins make a late run and get rid of McConnell?

[Suburbia]

Once and for all?

He should reconsider.

[Roll Roons]

No. He might be able to keep it within single digits, but barring a Moore scenario, Kentucky, at this time, is not winnable for a Democrat at the federal level.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No. He might be able to keep it within single digits, but barring a Moore scenario, Kentucky is not winnable for a Democrat at the federal level.

You haven't seen the poll, today, just line Ra were confident that Bevin was gonna win😏😏😏

[JMT]

Kentucky filing deadline actually already passed.

But, even if he still could run, I think he’d make the race closer than McGrath will, but he’d still lose.

[OSR stands with Israel]

All it would to is make KY senate race go from Safe R to Likely R, closer to safe than lean.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All it would to is make KY senate race go from Safe R to Likely R, closer to safe than lean.

McGrath is gonna beat McConnell

[S019]

It's Kentucky!!!

So no, McConnell is safe

[Calthrina950]

No. Just because Beshear managed to pull off a narrow upset last year does not mean that McConnell is vulnerable. Bear in mind that every other statewide Republican won while Matt Bevin was going down, and that except for the Secretary of State's race, that they won by double-digit margins. Moreover, Trump will be carrying Kentucky with more than 60% of the vote again, and even someone like Adkins would not be able to gain the necessary level of crossover votes to eke out a victory. And as is well known, McConnell is ruthless, and would tear down Adkins just like he has torn down all of his previous opponents. This race is Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No. Just because Beshear managed to pull off a narrow upset last year does not mean that McConnell is vulnerable. Bear in mind that every other statewide Republican won while Matt Bevin was going down, and that except for the Secretary of State's race, that they won by double-digit margins. Moreover, Trump will be carrying Kentucky with more than 60% of the vote again, and even someone like Adkins would not be able to gain the necessary level of crossover votes to eke out a victory. And as is well known, McConnell is ruthless, and would tear down Adkins just like he has torn down all of his previous opponents. This race is Safe R.

You Rs do underestimate the wave, Dems won 40 seats and they were only supposed to net 25.

[voice_of_resistance]

No. Just because Beshear managed to pull off a narrow upset last year does not mean that McConnell is vulnerable. Bear in mind that every other statewide Republican won while Matt Bevin was going down, and that except for the Secretary of State's race, that they won by double-digit margins. Moreover, Trump will be carrying Kentucky with more than 60% of the vote again, and even someone like Adkins would not be able to gain the necessary level of crossover votes to eke out a victory. And as is well known, McConnell is ruthless, and would tear down Adkins just like he has torn down all of his previous opponents. This race is Safe R.

I disagree that it'll be a double-digit wipeout, but after last night's special election result, I see McConnell winning vs. Adkins about 52-44. Any other Dem makes this at least 56-40.

[Flyersfan232]

No. He might be able to keep it within single digits, but barring a Moore scenario, Kentucky is not winnable for a Democrat at the federal level.

You haven't seen the poll, today, just line Ra were confident that Bevin was gonna win😏😏😏

Dems lost more state wide offices then won the only one they won just so happened to be governor a governorship that they will lose  in 2023

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, and McConnell has the same approvals as Bevin. We have to see more polling done on TX and KY, obviously Cornyn or McConnell can lose in a wave, but just remember,  this is a Prez year and in 2008, when Bush W had Trump approvals, McConnell was in a tight race with Lunsford. 44% approvals is not a sure thing

[Calthrina950]

No. Just because Beshear managed to pull off a narrow upset last year does not mean that McConnell is vulnerable. Bear in mind that every other statewide Republican won while Matt Bevin was going down, and that except for the Secretary of State's race, that they won by double-digit margins. Moreover, Trump will be carrying Kentucky with more than 60% of the vote again, and even someone like Adkins would not be able to gain the necessary level of crossover votes to eke out a victory. And as is well known, McConnell is ruthless, and would tear down Adkins just like he has torn down all of his previous opponents. This race is Safe R.

You Rs do underestimate the wave, Dems won 40 seats and they were only supposed to net 25.

Well, first of all, I'm not a Republican, as I've made clear several times before (I adopted this avatar for reasons that I will not disclose now). And second of all, I didn't make any prediction as to how many seats the Democrats would gain. 40 seats was well within the probability range which was forecast for Democrats in the House back in 2018.

As for this state, you are of the belief that McConnell is vulnerable. As I said above, a Beshear victory does not make this so. Keep in mind also, that Beshear won by less than a percentage point, that he was facing the most unpopular governor in the country, and that every other Republican on the ballot won. Beshear, moreover, tried to diassociate himself from the national Democratic Party as much as possible, much like John Bel Edwards and Jim Hood did, and he was given an immense boost by his last name-for many Kentucky voters still have fond memories of his father, former Governor Steve Beshear.

McConnell, while unpopular, is nevertheless an institution in the state, and has now been in office for more than three decades. There is also a clear difference between federal and state races-though polarization has reduced the extent of that difference. Kentucky has become much more partisan and much more Republican over the past decade. In 2008, when McConnell was vulnerable (probably the last year Democrats had even a realistic hope of gaining a Senate seat in Kentucky), he still won in the end by five points.

And that was against an opponent-Bruce Lunsford-who is almost of the same quality as Rocky Adkins. Now, Adkins would probably do the best of any possible challenger to McConnell. But he would lose maybe 55-45, while McGrath and Charles Booker, the other Democrat in the race, would lose 60-40 or even 62-38 (and this is especially likely for Booker, who is a black, staunchly liberal urban Democrat).

[Calthrina950]

No. Just because Beshear managed to pull off a narrow upset last year does not mean that McConnell is vulnerable. Bear in mind that every other statewide Republican won while Matt Bevin was going down, and that except for the Secretary of State's race, that they won by double-digit margins. Moreover, Trump will be carrying Kentucky with more than 60% of the vote again, and even someone like Adkins would not be able to gain the necessary level of crossover votes to eke out a victory. And as is well known, McConnell is ruthless, and would tear down Adkins just like he has torn down all of his previous opponents. This race is Safe R.

I disagree that it'll be a double-digit wipeout, but after last night's special election result, I see McConnell winning vs. Adkins about 52-44. Any other Dem makes this at least 56-40.

It's possible that Adkins might be able to bring it within single digits, but with Trump on the ballot, this is by no means a guarantee. More realistically, he loses something like 56-44 or 55-45, which is a prediction that I've made before. McConnell was held to a five-point win in 2008, but Kentucky was much more Democratic downballot at that time, it was a Democratic wave year, and it was before the Tea Party waves of 2010 and 2014 that decimated most of the remaining Democratic electoral strength in the rural and exurban South.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Elaine Chao is his wife, and she obstructed the impeachment process before it even began.  Voters in KY know that, this was an internal poll done, he is isnt polling nearly as he should like Graham or Inhofe whom are polling 51/37.  McConnell was always gonna obstruct the impeachment hearing as long as his wife, whom worked in Labor Dept during Bush W yrs, now she works for Transportation department

I believe he needs to be remove to remove the conflict of interest between his wife and Trump and Elaine Chao

[Calthrina950]

Elaine Chao is his wife, and she obstructed the impeachment process before it even began.  Voters in KY know that, this was an internal poll done, he is isnt polling nearly as he should like Graham or Inhofe whom are polling 51/37.  McConnell was always gonna obstruct the impeachment hearing as long as his wife, whom worked in Labor Dept during Bush W yrs, now she works for Transportation department

I believe he needs to be remove to remove the conflict of interest between his wife and Trump and Elaine Chao

Voters in Kentucky are not going to care about McConnell's wife, or about an "obstruction" of the impeachment process. Trump is very popular in the state, and as I said, will garner more than 60% of the vote there again. Any attacks against McConnell on these grounds will not succeed.

[Galeel]

Elaine Chao is his wife, and she obstructed the impeachment process before it even began.

that will only make him more popular, if it has any effect at all (which it won't)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Elaine Chao is his wife, and she obstructed the impeachment process before it even began.

that will only make him more popular, if it has any effect at all (which it won't)

McConnell has a 44% approval like his poll numbers

[Frenchrepublican]

Elaine Chao is his wife, and she obstructed the impeachment process before it even began.  Voters in KY know that, this was an internal poll done, he is isnt polling nearly as he should like Graham or Inhofe whom are polling 51/37.  McConnell was always gonna obstruct the impeachment hearing as long as his wife, whom worked in Labor Dept during Bush W yrs, now she works for Transportation department

I believe he needs to be remove to remove the conflict of interest between his wife and Trump and Elaine Chao

Voters in Kentucky are not going to care about McConnell's wife, or about an "obstruction" of the impeachment process. Trump is very popular in the state, and as I said, will garner more than 60% of the vote there again. Any attacks against McConnell on these grounds will not succeed.

You’re talking to a troll, dude. You’re wasting your time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Elaine Chao is his wife, and she obstructed the impeachment process before it even began.  Voters in KY know that, this was an internal poll done, he is isnt polling nearly as he should like Graham or Inhofe whom are polling 51/37.  McConnell was always gonna obstruct the impeachment hearing as long as his wife, whom worked in Labor Dept during Bush W yrs, now she works for Transportation department

I believe he needs to be remove to remove the conflict of interest between his wife and Trump and Elaine Chao

Voters in Kentucky are not going to care about McConnell's wife, or about an "obstruction" of the impeachment process. Trump is very popular in the state, and as I said, will garner more than 60% of the vote there again. Any attacks against McConnell on these grounds will not succeed.

You’re talking to a troll, dude. You’re wasting your time.

Yeah okay your Trump is losing by 7, and think that WI is gonna vote R and every poll shows otherwise. Also, I am not the one that thinks MT is going blue for Gov and NH and VT are gonna stay red, and Trump is leading by 20 in MT

[Arkansas Yankee]

No. Just because Beshear managed to pull off a narrow upset last year does not mean that McConnell is vulnerable. Bear in mind that every other statewide Republican won while Matt Bevin was going down, and that except for the Secretary of State's race, that they won by double-digit margins. Moreover, Trump will be carrying Kentucky with more than 60% of the vote again, and even someone like Adkins would not be able to gain the necessary level of crossover votes to eke out a victory. And as is well known, McConnell is ruthless, and would tear down Adkins just like he has torn down all of his previous opponents. This race is Safe R.

I disagree that it'll be a double-digit wipeout, but after last night's special election result, I see McConnell winning vs. Adkins about 52-44. Any other Dem makes this at least 56-40.

The above seems to be the only reference on Atlas to the GOP win in the KY 99 race to fill the Adkins seat after he took a Governors’s appointment. It had been a Democrat seat for 33 Years.

The results: Richard White (R) 4,750
                   Bill Redwine (D) 3,731
That must have been some swing.

Some of you do not understand McConnell’s Low approval rating vs. his repeated re-elections.    Some GOPers consider him not a true righteous Republican.  So they express Disapproval of him.
But they would never vote for any Democrat running against him.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

No. Just because Beshear managed to pull off a narrow upset last year does not mean that McConnell is vulnerable. Bear in mind that every other statewide Republican won while Matt Bevin was going down, and that except for the Secretary of State's race, that they won by double-digit margins. Moreover, Trump will be carrying Kentucky with more than 60% of the vote again, and even someone like Adkins would not be able to gain the necessary level of crossover votes to eke out a victory. And as is well known, McConnell is ruthless, and would tear down Adkins just like he has torn down all of his previous opponents. This race is Safe R.

I disagree that it'll be a double-digit wipeout, but after last night's special election result, I see McConnell winning vs. Adkins about 52-44. Any other Dem makes this at least 56-40.

The above seems to be the only reference on Atlas to the GOP win in the KY 99 race to fill the Adkins seat after he took a Governors’s appointment. It had been a Democrat seat for 33 Years.

The results: Richard White (R) 4,750
                   Bill Redwine (D) 3,731
That must have been some swing.

Some of you do not understand McConnell’s Low approval rating vs. his repeated re-elections.    Some GOPers consider him not a true righteous Republican.  So they express Disapproval of him.
But they would never vote for any Democrat running against him.

That was still a very respectable showing for a Democrat in that seat. Trump won it on the order of about 40 points, and Beshear was the only Democrat to win it last fall. Pretending like this is some huge accomplishment that Republicans flipped an R+20 PVI seat is something else.

[ElectionsGuy]

I remember back in 2013/2014 Grimes was made out to be the sort of candidate that Adkins is now - the most electable and the person most likely to win rural voters. This is 2020, Adkins would lose to McConnell even if he puts up a "respectable" performance. He would have much more of a chance running for statewide office, but even that would be tough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McConnell and Cornyn are elderly and McConnell has been in the Senate since 1984, no one thought Leader Daschle was gonna lose, but Trump isnt a typical R and is weak Prez. Natl polls have shown a 7 pt gap between Bernie and Trump. The Big 3 can lose; McConnell,  Cornyn and Graham. They obstructed the impeachment hearing and along with Ernst and Collins,  covered for Prez Trump, whom will go to prison

Ducey won his race in a landslide and McSally lost, Trump can carry KY and Mcconnell can still lose. Both McConnell and Trump have 44 percent approvals. Obviously,  this race is wave insurance. AZ, CO, ME and NC are D pathway to majority

[Calthrina950]

McConnell and Cornyn are elderly and McConnell has been in the Senate since 1984, no one thought Leader Daschle was gonna lose, but Trump isnt a typical R and is weak Prez. Natl polls have shown a 7 pt gap between Bernie and Trump. The Big 3 can lose; McConnell,  Cornyn and Graham. They obstructed the impeachment hearing and along with Ernst and Collins,  covered for Prez Trump, whom will go to prison

Ducey won his race in a landslide and McSally lost, Trump can carry KY and Mcconnell can still lose. Both McConnell and Trump have 44 percent approvals. Obviously,  this race is wave insurance. AZ, CO, ME and NC are D pathway to majority

Again, no one is going to care about impeachment in Kentucky-and impeachment was underwater there. Arizona is much less Republican than Kentucky and is trending to the left, and Trump's approvals in Kentucky are very high, probably close to the greater than 60% voteshare which he will receive there.