NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Tender Branson]

Already large crowds of people everywhere and the doors have just opened for check-in:

https://twitter.com/alexis_egeland/status/1231279149261545472

[Mehmentum]

https://twitter.com/carrigeer/status/1231266762353627136

Sounds like a good thing for Sanders. Henderson should be prime Buttigieg/"moderate" territory, at least the more white/southern parts of it.

It’s raining in all of Las Vegas ...

Yes, but it said it was coming down "hard" in Henderson. Perhaps the rain is not as heavy in the more Bernie-friendly areas. I don't know, just saying that it might be since we don't have anecdotal reports from there. Although I suppose we could look at the radar.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/nevada/weather-radar

Differential turnout due to weather doesn't actually matter for SDEs though, right?  If a precinct has lower turnout it'll still give the same number of SDEs, right?

[YE]

https://twitter.com/carrigeer/status/1231266762353627136

Lol that’s where I went to high school.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/carrigeer/status/1231266762353627136

Sounds like a good thing for Sanders. Henderson should be prime Buttigieg/"moderate" territory, at least the more white/southern parts of it.

It’s raining in all of Las Vegas ...

Yes, but it said it was coming down "hard" in Henderson. Perhaps the rain is not as heavy in the more Bernie-friendly areas. I don't know, just saying that it might be since we don't have anecdotal reports from there. Although I suppose we could look at the radar.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/nevada/weather-radar

Raining “hard” in Vegas is just a rainy day elsewhere just as an FYI.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Already large crowds of people everywhere and the doors have just opened for check-in:

https://twitter.com/alexis_egeland/status/1231279149261545472

Uh-oh, I see 1 Biden and 1 Pete. That is all the campaign paraphernalia. Not good, no Bernie visible.

On the other hand, it looks like a lot of youngs are there, maybe they are all Bernie supporters.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Lots of youngs at Rancho High School, looks good for Bernie (also Bernie paraphernalia visible).

https://twitter.com/SashaLoftis/status/1231282814424768512

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/almancinivegas/status/1231281589876752386

https://twitter.com/jgermanrj/status/1231283021837324288

https://twitter.com/ellenkschmidt_/status/1231277046535348224

[Hollywood]

Already large crowds of people everywhere and the doors have just opened for check-in:

https://twitter.com/alexis_egeland/status/1231279149261545472

Uh-oh, I see 1 Biden and 1 Pete. That is all the campaign paraphernalia. Not good, no Bernie visible.

On the other hand, it looks like a lot of youngs are there, maybe they are all Bernie supporters.

There's a Bernie guy right behind the Biden precinct captain.  There are four Bernie supporters in that picture.  You can find them by widening the image.  

[2016]

High Turnout = Good for Sanders methinks.

And btw I am not a Sanders Supporter, just want him to win the Nomination cuz I can't stand Biden, Bloomberg.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Casino caucus sight, also looks like youngs so far:

https://twitter.com/atdleft/status/1231282119076265985

Also looks pretty good for youngs, with maybe a few middle aged. No olds that I can see, so that is good. There is a distinct lack of olds in most of these:

https://twitter.com/AlManciniVegas/status/1231281589876752386

Looks like more of a mix here, youngs, some middle aged, and there are a few olds walking by even (in video). Ick.

https://twitter.com/DavidsonLVRJ/status/1231278599509958656

Also somewhat mixed in Reno, but quite a few youngs, not that many clear olds:

https://twitter.com/DentzerNews/status/1231284040302354432

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Differential turnout due to weather doesn't actually matter for SDEs though, right?  If a precinct has lower turnout it'll still give the same number of SDEs, right?

That is true. I guess the effect of hypothetical lower turnout in precincts with heavier rain would be to make the early vote in those precincts relatively more important. No idea who that would help/hurt though.

[musicblind]

Morning, y'all!

For comparisons' sake with today's results, I whipped up a quick visual guide showing an overview of the 2016 and 2008 Democratic Caucuses in Nevada:

Fox News was talking to a group of people anecdotally. They seemed to be Republicans. One was a disabled White male vet, another a White woman and another an engineer White man. I think they all knew each other. The engineer said that he thinks Trump will win Nevada because of the economy with stuff being built everywhere. The woman said she wants Trump, but her female friend doesn't want any of the Democrats but still also don't want Trump because of the way he talks, and then the vet said that he wants Trump, and that when he gets people to open up about politics they want Trump.

So this is obviously all anecdotal and doesn't mean a whole lot, but the early voting turnout is low in Nevada so far. Is this all developing a picture that Dems could be headed for trouble in Nevada? Or, another possibility is that Democrats have been so focused on Iowa and NH and then many candidates like Biden were planning on mostly skipping Nevada to go straight to SC so Nevada just hasn't had the time and money pumped into it to get people to the polls. I actually lean towards the latter.

They've never had early voting in Nevada before so we don't know how that turnout compares to previous years.

What we do know is early voting alone nearly matched 2016's entire turnout. There are concerns that unexpectedly large turnout size will screw with the caucuses themselves. I hope not.

[Tender Branson]

More videos & pics from the precinct check-ins:

https://twitter.com/glennatrj/status/1231284755062091776

https://twitter.com/dentzernews/status/1231284040302354432

https://twitter.com/jkarsh/status/1231265914894467073

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/GlennatRJ/status/1231284755062091776

High turnout, mixed ages but definitely solid young turnout it looks like. 1 Old is so tired and worn out that he is sitting at a table rather than standing though, not a good sign, that is probably a Klobuchar voter.

[Mr. Morden]

A few people with Biden shirts in this video:

https://twitter.com/LasVegasSun/status/1231282061882744832

[ElectionsGuy]

According to a lot of early vote estimates, it looks like the early vote skewed old, so the caucus day turnout should skew younger.

[Mehmentum]

Is it possible that the early vote was disproportionately old, leaving caucus day mostly young?  There was that Emerson poll that had Buttigieg doing well with the early vote and Sanders crushing it on caucus day.

[Tender Branson]

Lots of Pete folk in line in this video:

https://twitter.com/almancinivegas/status/1231286145054437376

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Is it possible that the early vote was disproportionately old, leaving caucus day mostly young?  There was that Emerson poll that had Buttigieg doing well with the early vote and Sanders crushing it on caucus day.

Could well be. Hopefully not too many of the youngs are put off by the rain. So if Bernie loses via the early vote but wins on caucus day (with lower turnout), we all know to blame the rain.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/22/nevada-caucuses-live-updates/
What if there’s a tie at a Nevada caucus precinct? Enter a deck of cards.

According to Nevada State Democratic Party rules, ties will be broken by what is called the “Game of Chance,” a Vegas-influenced twist on Iowa’s coin toss. Each tied group will draw one card from a deck of cards, and the high card determines the winner. Aces are high.

You read that correctly. The state party is distributing an unopened deck of cards to each precinct location, with very specific guidelines for how to proceed in the case of a tie:

“The deck of cards should be shuffled by a Precinct Chair or Site Lead at least seven times before use, and all extra cards (Jokers & Directional Cards) should be removed,” the party states.

“The results of the tiebreaker as well as which group pulled what particular card, shall be recorded and reported to the Nevada State Democratic Party.”

In case two parties pull cards of the same rank, the suit order will determine who wins, from highest to lowest: spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs.

Nevada 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Bernie landslide incoming, look at that beard:

https://twitter.com/EliPagePhoto/status/1231288852695773184

[Gass3268]

Looks like turnout is gonna surge past 2016.

[Mehmentum]

Looks like turnout is gonna surge past 2016.

I should hope so, I'd hate to have less than 10k people show up on caucus day.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Youngs registering to vote, probably mostly for Sanders, lots of Hispanics:

https://twitter.com/GlennatRJ/status/1231288513544384512

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

As a counterpoint, this one looks horrible, so many olds I see. I think the ones in the background may be youngs mostly, but it is like 5 olds in the front, way too many for comfort:

https://twitter.com/AlexChhith/status/1231286630905892864