NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Holmes]

When will the entrance polls be released?

One can assume @ noon Pacific Time (3pm Eastern) when the voting starts.

Will they release early voting results at the early voting results at the same time?

It is my understanding that the early vote will be included in the precincts' final tallies because they need a full count to determine viability thresholds and other caucus stuff, so I doubt we'll ever get data on the early vote other than the amount of people that voted early. But maybe I'm wrong.

[Adam Griffin]

I whipped up a composite map of 2012-2016 elections, splitting the state into 15 equally-sized districts based on the average Democratic vote (i.e. each district has approximately 100k potential Democratic voters).

It's important to remember that around 90% of the Democratic vote exists in the denser portions of Clark and Washoe. That one dark green district that covers the vast, vast majority of the state is only 1/15 of the likely Democratic vote - so unless one candidate is just running away with it in these communities, it's not a big deal or indicative of anything.

[atheist4thecause]

Morning, y'all!

For comparisons' sake with today's results, I whipped up a quick visual guide showing an overview of the 2016 and 2008 Democratic Caucuses in Nevada:

Fox News was talking to a group of people anecdotally. They seemed to be Republicans. One was a disabled White male vet, another a White woman and another an engineer White man. I think they all knew each other. The engineer said that he thinks Trump will win Nevada because of the economy with stuff being built everywhere. The woman said she wants Trump, but her female friend doesn't want any of the Democrats but still also don't want Trump because of the way he talks, and then the vet said that he wants Trump, and that when he gets people to open up about politics they want Trump.

So this is obviously all anecdotal and doesn't mean a whole lot, but the early voting turnout is low in Nevada so far. Is this all developing a picture that Dems could be headed for trouble in Nevada? Or, another possibility is that Democrats have been so focused on Iowa and NH and then many candidates like Biden were planning on mostly skipping Nevada to go straight to SC so Nevada just hasn't had the time and money pumped into it to get people to the polls. I actually lean towards the latter.

[Holmes]

I whipped up a composite map of 2012-2016 elections, splitting the state into 15 equally-sized districts based on the average Democratic vote (i.e. each district has approximately 100k potential Democratic voters).

It's important to remember that around 90% of the Democratic vote exists in the denser portions of Clark and Washoe. That one dark green district that covers the vast, vast majority of the state is only 1/15 of the likely Democratic vote - so unless one candidate is just running away with it in these communities, it's not a big deal or indicative of anything.

These rural precincts are important though because they get at least 1 SDE so they can make a difference if one candidate sweeps them.

Interesting map btw.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is going to be a boring night. The Russian asset has this all sewn up because the idiots on stage decided to take out all their rage on someone who's not even on the damn ballot here. Smh.

[atheist4thecause]

Something to remember is that counties with 2 delegates have a 25% viability rate, counties with 3 delegates have 1/6 (16.6666% rate), and counties with 4 delegates have a 15% viability rate. Source is Page 6: https://nvdems.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/2020-NSDP-Delegate-Selection-REVISED-FINAL-190626.pdf

If you want to read all 121 pages to learn all the rules, feel free. lol

[Tender Branson]

I'm pretty sure that the "entrance" poll will include interviews with early voters.

So, those early voters should be accounted for in the "exit" poll.

(I've read somewhere that exit pollster people interviewed early voters.)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Well I think if there's one important thing that we all bear in mind with these results, it's that it's pronounced "NE-VAD-UH" and not "NE-VAH-DUH". 

Got yelled at by a girl in my undergrad sorority for getting it wrong

[Tender Branson]

Well I think if there's one important thing that we all bear in mind with these results, it's that it's pronounced "NE-VAD-UH" and not "NE-VAH-DUH". 

Got yelled at by a girl in my undergrad sorority for getting it wrong

As an Austrian, I pronounce it "Näh-wuh-duh".

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Well I think if there's one important thing that we all bear in mind with these results, it's that it's pronounced "NE-VAD-UH" and not "NE-VAH-DUH".  

Got yelled at by a girl in my undergrad sorority for getting it wrong

As an Austrian, I pronounce it "Näh-wuh-duh".

Would've been thrown out of the window at the sorority house with that

[Skye]

Well I think if there's one important thing that we all bear in mind with these results, it's that it's pronounced "NE-VAD-UH" and not "NE-VAH-DUH". 

Got yelled at by a girl in my undergrad sorority for getting it wrong

As an Austrian, I pronounce it "Näh-wuh-duh".

I speak Spanish and pronounce it "Ne-va-da".

You know. Like God intended.

[T'Chenka]

This is going to be a boring night. The Russian asset has this all sewn up because the idiots on stage decided to take out all their rage on someone who's not even on the damn ballot here. Smh.

Just because he's a Russian ideologically, it doesn't mean he encourages or welcomes Russian interference.

[Mr. Morden]

What results pages are people going to use to follow this?  Can we get such pages linked in the OP?

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Some sites for results:
CNN - https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/nevada
DDHQ - https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/primary/nevada/president
Politico - https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/nevada/

[ON Progressive]

This is going to be a boring night. The Russian asset has this all sewn up because the idiots on stage decided to take out all their rage on someone who's not even on the damn ballot here. Smh.

[GeorgiaModerate]

As the results come in, please consider this a request to minimize emotional and accusatory posts.  We're all interested in what happens or we wouldn't be here.

[brucejoel99]

This is going to be a boring night. The Russian asset has this all sewn up because the idiots on stage decided to take out all their rage on someone who's not even on the damn ballot here. Smh.

Bernie's baggage may be getting impossible for him now that he's under increased scrutiny. Hopefully tonight is his peak.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

This is going to be a boring night. The Russian asset has this all sewn up because the idiots on stage decided to take out all their rage on someone who's not even on the damn ballot here. Smh.

Bernie's baggage may be getting impossible for him now that he's under increased scrutiny. Hopefully tonight is his peak.

Lol

[Gass3268]

Morning, y'all!

For comparisons' sake with today's results, I whipped up a quick visual guide showing an overview of the 2016 and 2008 Democratic Caucuses in Nevada:

snip

Fox News was talking to a group of people anecdotally. They seemed to be Republicans. One was a disabled White male vet, another a White woman and another an engineer White man. I think they all knew each other. The engineer said that he thinks Trump will win Nevada because of the economy with stuff being built everywhere. The woman said she wants Trump, but her female friend doesn't want any of the Democrats but still also don't want Trump because of the way he talks, and then the vet said that he wants Trump, and that when he gets people to open up about politics they want Trump.

So this is obviously all anecdotal and doesn't mean a whole lot, but the early voting turnout is low in Nevada so far. Is this all developing a picture that Dems could be headed for trouble in Nevada? Or, another possibility is that Democrats have been so focused on Iowa and NH and then many candidates like Biden were planning on mostly skipping Nevada to go straight to SC so Nevada just hasn't had the time and money pumped into it to get people to the polls. I actually lean towards the latter.

Huh? 75,000 people voted early in Nevada compared to 84,000 people who caucused in 2016. That means that we are already to 89.28% of the total caucus vote of 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

I whipped up a composite map of 2012-2016 elections, splitting the state into 15 equally-sized districts based on the average Democratic vote (i.e. each district has approximately 100k potential Democratic voters).

It's important to remember that around 90% of the Democratic vote exists in the denser portions of Clark and Washoe. That one dark green district that covers the vast, vast majority of the state is only 1/15 of the likely Democratic vote - so unless one candidate is just running away with it in these communities, it's not a big deal or indicative of anything.

These rural precincts are important though because they get at least 1 SDE so they can make a difference if one candidate sweeps them.

Interesting map btw.

These caucuses are mini-electoral colleges in that regard, since you cannot go below 1 in a bunch of the rural underpopulated areas. However, it isn't that important except in a close race where the 85%+ of delegates coming from the urban and suburban areas break near evenly, which has happened in the past.

[Pollster]

Is the NYT page up yet?

[Oryxslayer]

Morning, y'all!

For comparisons' sake with today's results, I whipped up a quick visual guide showing an overview of the 2016 and 2008 Democratic Caucuses in Nevada:

snip

Fox News was talking to a group of people anecdotally. They seemed to be Republicans. One was a disabled White male vet, another a White woman and another an engineer White man. I think they all knew each other. The engineer said that he thinks Trump will win Nevada because of the economy with stuff being built everywhere. The woman said she wants Trump, but her female friend doesn't want any of the Democrats but still also don't want Trump because of the way he talks, and then the vet said that he wants Trump, and that when he gets people to open up about politics they want Trump.

So this is obviously all anecdotal and doesn't mean a whole lot, but the early voting turnout is low in Nevada so far. Is this all developing a picture that Dems could be headed for trouble in Nevada? Or, another possibility is that Democrats have been so focused on Iowa and NH and then many candidates like Biden were planning on mostly skipping Nevada to go straight to SC so Nevada just hasn't had the time and money pumped into it to get people to the polls. I actually lean towards the latter.

Huh? 75,000 people voted early in Nevada compared to 84,000 people who caucused in 2016. That means that we are already to 89.28% of the total caucus vote of 2016.

If anything, models are going to be broken today since turnout may double 2016, so the electorates composition is up in the air. It reminds me of Michigan, and how pollsters had to model based on the shoddy data from 2008.

[Beet]

Jeezus. I just noticed that PredictIt has Bernie with a +10% win in Nevada and winning every single state now (Bloomberg just overtook him in Florida as I was typing this).

[2016]

This is going to be a boring night. The Russian asset has this all sewn up because the idiots on stage decided to take out all their rage on someone who's not even on the damn ballot here. Smh.

Bernie's baggage may be getting impossible for him now that he's under increased scrutiny. Hopefully tonight is his peak.

LOL, Bidencrats still holding up Hope. Ya not going to win the Nomination if you lose the first 3 Contests by large margins. This ain't 1992!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Jeezus. I just noticed that PredictIt has Bernie with a +10% win in Nevada and winning every single state now (Bloomberg just overtook him in Florida as I was typing this).

Yeah, these models and predictions that have Bernie winning Mississippi and whatnot (looking at you 538) just because he has momentum are essentially BS.