Rarest voting patterns

[VPH]

I think Hillary-Trump would be very rare. I can only imagine a minuscule number of #populist working class Appalachian whites voting for Hillary AT ALL only to vote Trump in 2020.

I could see it in some instances. Clinton still did well enough to have ground to lose in some small towns. In PA, she still won WWC towns like Monessen, Johnstown, Pittston. Might depend on the state of the economy and such, but I could see it being less rare than expected. Also anecdotally, I have like 3-4 friends who voted Clinton but are looking at voting Trump this time. One might go Libertarian though.

[morgankingsley]

Goldwater-Obama has to be up there

Landon-McGovern probably due to how badly they both lost

I wonder if LaFollette-Landon even exists

[Calthrina950]

Goldwater-Obama has to be up there

Landon-McGovern probably due to how badly they both lost

I wonder if LaFollette-Landon even exists

Black voters would fit this category perfectly. Landon got roughly a quarter of the black vote in 1936, which was the first time ever that a majority of blacks voted Democratic in a presidential election. Nixon received 18% in 1972. Many black voters continued to vote Republican until the Civil Rights Act of 1964 aligned them permanently to the Democratic Party.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Voting Republican in South Carolina in the first half of the 20th century.

[pbrower2a]

Dewey 48 - Stevenson 52.
Wallace 68 - Ford 76

[DINGO Joe]

Dewey 48 - Stevenson 52.
Wallace 68 - Ford 76

There were plenty of Wallace-Ford voters

[Intell]

Dewey 48 - Stevenson 52.
Wallace 68 - Ford 76

Umm No? This was pretty fycking common.

[TDAS04]

Bryan 08-Taft or TR 12
Stevenson 56-Nixon 60 (among Catholics)
Kerry 04-McCain 08 (among AAs)

Dewey 48 - Stevenson 52.
Wallace 68 - Ford 76

Umm No? This was pretty fycking common.

Yeah, Ford almost won Mississippi!

[Intell]

Bryan 08-Taft or TR 12
Stevenson 56-Nixon 60 (among Catholics)
Kerry 04-McCain 08 (among AAs)

Dewey 48 - Stevenson 52.
Wallace 68 - Ford 76

Umm No? This was pretty fycking common.

Yeah, Ford almost won Mississippi!

And he certainly won the white vote there.

[Mr. Smith]

Hughes '16 - Cox '20.

[Kyng]

McGovern/Ford voters from Georgia. I suppose McGovern/Ford voters wouldn't have been that rare in the country as a whole (indeed, McGovern himself was one), but it's hard to imagine that Georgia would have had very many. (Perhaps someone ticked the wrong box by mistake in one of the two elections, or completely changed their politics during the four intervening years... but, both of those answers feel like cop-outs :-/ )

And, if we can allow non-presidential elections, there's Hillary Clinton 2016/Roy Moore 2017. Perhaps there were a few who fall into the cop-out scenarios I described above, but I have a hard time visualising somebody who maintained consistent political values between the two elections, and intentionally cast both of those votes.

[Liberalrocks]

Mondale 84- Bush 88 voters may be a bit more rare.

[TDAS04]

I wonder if LaFollette-Landon even exists

Just a few-minute drive from my house is Lincoln County, which voted that way, and it’s not the only one.  Gillespie County, Texas was like that too, and I believe there was at least one other one in South Dakota.

[darklordoftech]

How about Dukakis-Bush 1992 voters?

[MarkD]

How about Dukakis-Bush 1992 voters?

That was me. I voted that way.

[darklordoftech]

How about Dukakis-Bush 1992 voters?

That was me. I voted that way.

Why?

[MarkD]

How about Dukakis-Bush 1992 voters?

That was me. I voted that way.

Why?

Long story. I'll try to be brief.

In 1988 I wanted to overturn Bowers v. Hardwick. I believed the Ninth Amendment would justify overturning it. The SCOTUS just needed one more liberal,.........

Then I read Robert Bork's The Tempting of America, and it convinced me that I was wrong and the SCOTUS had been right in Bowers. I also read a number of other books to seek out a better interpretation of the Ninth Amendment, because Bork's explanation of what the Ninth means seemed, intuitively, wrong. Among some four or five books I read which talked about the Ninth Amendment were Democracy and Distrust, and The New Right and the Constitution. The latter two books convinced me that both I and Robert Bork were wrong about what the Ninth Amendment means. But Bork reinforced my belief in "the original intent" of each clause of the Constitution. Tempting of America and Democracy and Distrust remain two of my favorite books.

So by 1992 I became convinced that I made a serious mistake in voting for Dukakis, and I proceeded to go the opposite direction, wanting people like Bork to be appointed to the Supreme Court.

(In all these years, I have not once voted for a person who, 1: won that election in which I voted for them, 2: that person then appointed any Supreme Court Justices during the next four years. In other words, I haven't helped to change the membership of the Court.)

[Coolface Sock #42069]

McCain-Obama

[Yu748Girl83]

Smith-Hoover, Goldwater-Humphrey, and Dole-Gore come to mind. What other voting patters were very unusual?

Bryan-Parker-Bryan-Taft-Hughes-Cox-Coolidge-Hoover-Hoover-Landon-Roosevelt voter or Wallace-McGovern-Carter-Reagan-Reagan-Dukakis-Clinton-Dole-Bush-Kerry-Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump voter.

[Skill and Chance]

McCain-Obama

Retired military foreign policy hawk (maybe served with McCain?) who doesn't trust businessmen at all.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

McCain-Obama

Retired military foreign policy hawk (maybe served with McCain?) who doesn't trust businessmen at all.

Or someone from the NYC area who credited Obama's response to Hurricane Sandy.  That part of the country was one of the only places that actually swung to Obama in 2012.

[Schiff for Senate]

Nixon-McGovern-Ford

Actually, Washtenaw County, MI (Biden's strongest county in the state in 2020), is such a county, having flipped Democratic in 1972 and Republican in 1976. To add on to that, it flipped Democratic in the 1980 Reagan landslide. I think Ford being from MI is what made it flip in 1976, because if it had supported Carter it'd just be a standard liberal stronghold except for the 1968 result.

[patzer]

I can’t help but think Romney-Clinton-Trump voters must be rare. Maybe a few in Arkansas but that’s it.

[Yu748Girl83]

Smith-Hoover, Goldwater-Humphrey, and Dole-Gore come to mind. What other voting patters were very unusual?

I got another one, Adams-Jefferson-Pinckney voter.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I can’t help but think Romney-Clinton-Trump voters must be rare. Maybe a few in Arkansas but that’s it.

Surely there were some in Utah and Florida...