Rarest voting patterns
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Rarest voting patterns
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Author Topic: Rarest voting patterns  (Read 7728 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: February 21, 2020, 02:01:18 PM »

Smith-Hoover, Goldwater-Humphrey, and Dole-Gore come to mind. What other voting patters were very unusual?
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Orser67
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2020, 05:10:05 PM »

Hughes 1916-Cox 1920 and Fremont 1856-Breckinridge 1860 come to mind.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2020, 07:11:22 PM »

Doesn't this little game just involve finding consecutive landslides in US election history and picking both defeated candidates?
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PeteHam
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2020, 07:22:17 PM »

Thurmond-Stevenson-Eisenhower was pretty rare, I guess.
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Storr
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2020, 11:22:30 PM »

Dukakis-Bush would be fairly rare, I imagine.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2020, 05:03:40 PM »

Bryan-Taft.
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Amtrak Joe
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« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2020, 05:49:22 PM »

Nixon-McGovern-Ford
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538Electoral
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« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2020, 10:02:56 PM »

Gore 2000, Kerry 2004, McCain 2008, Romney 2012, Clinton 2016.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2020, 10:14:06 PM »

Gore 2000, Kerry 2004, McCain 2008, Romney 2012, Clinton 2016.

You know, I don't feel that that voting pattern is that crazy.  The one vote I'm having a hard time explaining is the Kerry vote, but I could almost see that pattern among some voters in urban areas in the South.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2020, 11:41:45 PM »

Gore 2000, Kerry 2004, McCain 2008, Romney 2012, Clinton 2016.

Could easily see this as a southern voter
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Intell
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« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2020, 12:42:15 AM »

Gore 2000, Kerry 2004, McCain 2008, Romney 2012, Clinton 2016.

Could easily see this as a southern voter

Which kind? Your suburban voter, if they would have voted for Kerry most likely voted for Obama and your rural white if they voted for Romney voted for Trump.

I would say this could be the voting pattern from your wealthier white ethnic voters in NYC and Boston.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2020, 12:52:41 AM »

Gore 2000, Kerry 2004, McCain 2008, Romney 2012, Clinton 2016.

Could easily see this as a southern voter

Which kind? Your suburban voter, if they would have voted for Kerry most likely voted for Obama and your rural white if they voted for Romney voted for Trump.

I would say this could be the voting pattern from your wealthier white ethnic voters in NYC and Boston.
Why would wealthier white ethnic NYC and Boston voters be #neverObama Democrats?
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Intell
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« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2020, 06:03:55 AM »

Gore 2000, Kerry 2004, McCain 2008, Romney 2012, Clinton 2016.

Could easily see this as a southern voter

Which kind? Your suburban voter, if they would have voted for Kerry most likely voted for Obama and your rural white if they voted for Romney voted for Trump.

I would say this could be the voting pattern from your wealthier white ethnic voters in NYC and Boston.
Why would wealthier white ethnic NYC and Boston voters be #neverObama Democrats?

He's black.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2020, 08:37:18 AM »

Gore 2000, Kerry 2004, McCain 2008, Romney 2012, Clinton 2016.
Believe it or not, its possible to draw a contiguous area matching all 5 of these votes in some places of the Country, such as the Little Rock, Arkansas Metro.
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bagelman
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« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2020, 09:21:26 AM »

Wallace 68-McGovern 72 is an obvious one.

However, I think one of the rarest and most unusual is Fremont-Breckenridge
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2020, 01:30:50 PM »

Wallace 68-McGovern 72 is an obvious one.

However, I think one of the rarest and most unusual is Fremont-Breckenridge
That's nearly an impossible voting pattern.
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Intell
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« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2020, 12:30:44 AM »

Wallace 68-McGovern 72 is an obvious one.

However, I think one of the rarest and most unusual is Fremont-Breckenridge
That's nearly an impossible voting pattern.

Jackson County, AL shows that that while rare that it wasn't a near impossible voting pattern.

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2020, 12:53:00 AM »

Smith-Hoover, Goldwater-Humphrey, and Dole-Gore come to mind. What other voting patters were very unusual?

Smith-Hoover is certainly unusual, but I can provide a concrete example of it. I recall reading somewhere that Hoover did several percentage points better in heavily Catholic Elk County, Pennsylvania, in 1932 than he did in 1928. He still lost the county though, as he did not gain a single county which Smith had carried in 1928 (while losing over 2,000 counties he had won to Franklin Roosevelt). Moreover, Roosevelt did not improve substantially over Smith in Massachusetts. I think that Smith-Hoover voters were predominantly Catholics who went for Smith out of a sense of shared religion, but otherwise voted Republican.
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #18 on: February 25, 2020, 01:20:39 PM »

Wallace 68-McGovern 72 is an obvious one.

However, I think one of the rarest and most unusual is Fremont-Breckenridge
That's nearly an impossible voting pattern.

Jackson County, AL shows that that while rare that it wasn't a near impossible voting pattern.


Fremont got 0 votes in Alabama.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2020, 03:17:53 PM »

Gore 2000, Kerry 2004, McCain 2008, Romney 2012, Clinton 2016.

Could easily see this as a southern voter

Which kind? Your suburban voter, if they would have voted for Kerry most likely voted for Obama and your rural white if they voted for Romney voted for Trump.

I would say this could be the voting pattern from your wealthier white ethnic voters in NYC and Boston.
Why would wealthier white ethnic NYC and Boston voters be #neverObama Democrats?

This wouldn't be so unusual a pattern for certain Jewish voters in the NYC area (such as Persian Jews in Great Neck), with the Kerry vote being the hardest to explain, but this voter might have disliked Bush on a personal level (perhaps for his more complete embrace of evangelical Christianity than other recent Republican nominees, e.g.). I do think places like Great Neck swung against Obama in 2008.

Going back further, this voter is probably Reagan-Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Gore-Kerry-McCain-Romney-Clinton, so not traditionally a Democrat necessarily.
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Intell
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« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2020, 08:49:39 PM »

Wallace 68-McGovern 72 is an obvious one.

However, I think one of the rarest and most unusual is Fremont-Breckenridge
That's nearly an impossible voting pattern.

Jackson County, AL shows that that while rare that it wasn't a near impossible voting pattern.


Fremont got 0 votes in Alabama.

I meant wallace-mcgovern.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #21 on: February 25, 2020, 10:35:05 PM »

I think it would be very difficult to find any Goldwater/Humphrey voters who didn't just change their politics. Maybe a Republican from Minnesota and/or who disliked Nixon? Maybe someone who hates Texas and/or the South?
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TDAS04
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« Reply #22 on: March 16, 2020, 09:11:37 AM »

Thurmond-Stevenson-Eisenhower was pretty rare, I guess.

Actually, there must have been quite a few in Louisiana and Alabama.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #23 on: March 18, 2020, 11:54:57 PM »

Thurmond-Stevenson-Eisenhower was pretty rare, I guess.

Actually, there must have been quite a few in Louisiana and Alabama.

Especially in Louisiana, where Eisenhower's victory in 1956 was the first for a Republican since Reconstruction.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2020, 06:47:30 AM »

I think Hillary-Trump would be very rare. I can only imagine a minuscule number of #populist working class Appalachian whites voting for Hillary AT ALL only to vote Trump in 2020.
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