Swing states against various candidates (Bloomberg, Warren, Sanders, Biden)
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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Swing states against various candidates (Bloomberg, Warren, Sanders, Biden)
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Author Topic: Swing states against various candidates (Bloomberg, Warren, Sanders, Biden)  (Read 137 times)
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,157
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

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« on: February 21, 2020, 11:16:02 AM »
« edited: February 21, 2020, 11:23:15 AM by Alienated Social Democrat »

Bloomberg vs Trump

NM: D+13
VA: D+9
CO: D+5
NH: D+4
NV: D+1
FL: D+0
AZ: R+0
PA: R+2
NC: R+2
GA: R+3
NE-2: R+3
MN: R+4
MI: R+5
ME at large: R+6
WI: R+8
TX: R+8
KS: R+14
IA: R+15
OH: R+16
MO: R+18
ME-2: R+22

Why?
He's a joke in debates
He's terrible in the Mid west
Third tier candidates will have a much higher percentage as usually out of protest
The only way Bloomberg can win is through a nasty contested convention
Trump is gaining popularity back again
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,157
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2020, 11:22:46 AM »
« Edited: February 21, 2020, 11:30:57 AM by Alienated Social Democrat »

Sanders vs Trump
NM: D+18
ME at large: D+12
CO: D+11
VA: D+8
NH: D+6
NV: D+5
MN: D+4
MI: D+2
AZ: D+1
PA: D+0
ME-2: D+0
WI: R+0
FL: R+2
NC: R+3
GA: R+3
TX: R+3
NE-2: R+3
OH: R+5
IA: R+7
AL: R+9 (i meant alaska)
KS: R+12
MO: R+12

Sanders' political revolution will reshape the map in a way we've never seen. I'll probably be far off, although i think the trend of in what states he'll do better in than Bloomberg, or not much better and even worse than Bloomberg will be correct. He's bad in sun belt states, and will revert trends in some way, but also accelerate other trends (more urban turn-out and higher swings towards Sanders), while in suburbs trends might revert, and in rural areas as well, or stay roughly the same. It's hard to predict.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,157
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2020, 11:27:09 AM »

Biden vs Trump:
NM: D+14
VA: D+8
CO: D+7
NH: D+4
ME-at large: D+3
PA: D+2
NV: D+1
AZ: D+0
FL: R+1
MI: R+1
NC: R+2
GA: R+3
NE-2: R+3
TX: R+5
ME-2: R+5
WI: R+6
IA: R+7
OH: R+11
KS: R+16
MO: R+17

Not an excellent candidate, but he will be able to unite against Trump more than Bloomberg will, and if he becomes the nominee, he'll likely bounce back. I think Biden is a cat with 9 lives. Would that make him win? Right now, i don't think so. But it would be a close and interesting election.
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