Thurmond 1948 voters in 1964, 1968, 1976, and 1980

[DabbingSanta]

^Adding to the above, Barry Goldwater in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1968 (and in 1972), and Ronald Reagan in 1980 almost certainly won Thurmond 1948 voters, particularly since all three of these Republicans were endorsed by Thurmond himself. Thurmond's influence helped to decide South Carolina in those years, particularly in 1968, when Nixon prevailed by a narrow margin over George Wallace. In 1976 of course, South Carolina went by 13% for Jimmy Carter, although Thurmond endorsed and campaigned for Gerald Ford. It's possible that Ford still won a majority of living Thurmond 1948 voters, but my guess is that Carter cut deeply into them-of course, his overall margin of victory was provided by blacks. Most living Thurmond 1948 voters in Georgia, on the other hand, probably went for their native son Carter.

I am not totally sure that Nixon won Thurmond voters in 1968 considering that George Wallace destroyed him among White voters in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana - three states where Thurmond swept in 1948 as he was put on the ballot as the official Democratic candidate (and which collectively had roughly half of the total national votes for Strom).

They definitely went Kennedy/Byrd -> Goldwater -> Wallace -> Nixon

Wallace's 1968 performance was the strongest among any Dixiecrat/segregationist type figure.

[DabbingSanta]

^Adding to the above, Barry Goldwater in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1968 (and in 1972), and Ronald Reagan in 1980 almost certainly won Thurmond 1948 voters, particularly since all three of these Republicans were endorsed by Thurmond himself. Thurmond's influence helped to decide South Carolina in those years, particularly in 1968, when Nixon prevailed by a narrow margin over George Wallace. In 1976 of course, South Carolina went by 13% for Jimmy Carter, although Thurmond endorsed and campaigned for Gerald Ford. It's possible that Ford still won a majority of living Thurmond 1948 voters, but my guess is that Carter cut deeply into them-of course, his overall margin of victory was provided by blacks. Most living Thurmond 1948 voters in Georgia, on the other hand, probably went for their native son Carter.

I am not totally sure that Nixon won Thurmond voters in 1968 considering that George Wallace destroyed him among White voters in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana - three states where Thurmond swept in 1948 as he was put on the ballot as the official Democratic candidate (and which collectively had roughly half of the total national votes for Strom).

That's true. I should have said Thurmond voters in South Carolina, where Nixon did best in the counties that had strongly supported Thurmond twenty years previously. In the other Deep Southern States, they almost certainly did go for George Wallace.

South Carolina results:

Thurmond: 72% with 102,607 votes

Wallace: 32% with 215,430 votes

I expect that the majority of Thurmond voters went for Wallace. Notice that the number of Wallace voters was double the number of Thurmond voters, despite being a way smaller share of the electorate. You have to remember when looking at the percentages that the majority of southerners were disenfranchised in the 1940s. MS and SC had some of the strictest voting rules in the union, and these laws essentially kept their states as Democratic strongholds for almost a century — from the end of Reconstruction to the Civil Rights era.

[DabbingSanta]

^Adding to the above, Barry Goldwater in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1968 (and in 1972), and Ronald Reagan in 1980 almost certainly won Thurmond 1948 voters, particularly since all three of these Republicans were endorsed by Thurmond himself. Thurmond's influence helped to decide South Carolina in those years, particularly in 1968, when Nixon prevailed by a narrow margin over George Wallace. In 1976 of course, South Carolina went by 13% for Jimmy Carter, although Thurmond endorsed and campaigned for Gerald Ford. It's possible that Ford still won a majority of living Thurmond 1948 voters, but my guess is that Carter cut deeply into them-of course, his overall margin of victory was provided by blacks. Most living Thurmond 1948 voters in Georgia, on the other hand, probably went for their native son Carter.

I am not totally sure that Nixon won Thurmond voters in 1968 considering that George Wallace destroyed him among White voters in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana - three states where Thurmond swept in 1948 as he was put on the ballot as the official Democratic candidate (and which collectively had roughly half of the total national votes for Strom).

That's true. I should have said Thurmond voters in South Carolina, where Nixon did best in the counties that had strongly supported Thurmond twenty years previously. In the other Deep Southern States, they almost certainly did go for George Wallace.

South Carolina results:

Thurmond: 72% with 102,607 votes

Wallace: 32% with 215,430 votes

I expect that the majority of Thurmond voters went for Wallace. Notice that the number of Wallace voters was double the number of Thurmond voters, despite being a way smaller share of the electorate. You have to remember when looking at the percentages that the majority of southerners were disenfranchised in the 1940s. MS and SC had some of the strictest voting rules in the union, and these laws essentially kept their states as Democratic strongholds for almost a century — from the end of Reconstruction to the Civil Rights era.

I'm aware about how many poorer whites were excluded from the electorate of South Carolina and of many other states prior to the middle of the twentieth century. Between 1948 and 1952, turnout in South Carolina, in particular, increased significantly, rising from 142,571 to 341,086. Much of that increase in turnout clearly benefited the Republicans, as Dwight D. Eisenhower came very close to winning South Carolina that year. There is evidence to suggest that many of the Dixiecratic voters of 1948 were among the first to break to Republicans within the South, as they did for Eisenhower, and later for Nixon. It must also be remembered that Republicans generally established themselves in the urban and suburban areas of those states first, before branching out into the rurals-and Dixiecratic voters tended to be wealthier, more educated, and more concentrated in such areas.

Moreover, Thomas E. Dewey only got 4% of the vote in South Carolina in 1948. I wouldn't be surprised if most of that elite Thurmond vote went to Nixon in 1968, as it did for Eisenhower in 1952, while Wallace's support rested heavily upon the upcountry whites who had backed Harry Truman, in addition to those whites who gained the franchise following the abolition of the poll tax. Hubert Humphrey generally prevailed in the Black Belt due to newly enfranchised black voters-an effect due to the Voting Rights Act. Kevin Philips in The Emerging Republican Majority provides a pretty solid explanation of the support Wallace found among poorer, upcountry whites.

It seems that Republicans did well in SC areas that voted Thurmond when there was no Dixiecrat option on the ballot (1952, 1960).  I'd speculate that this is backlash to Dem policies on civil rights and not a true party switchover like we saw in 1964 and 1972.  In 1968, Wallace beat Nixon in several of the Johnson won counties, and it would make sense that the majority of Dixiecrats would support a segregationist over a national Republican.

[DabbingSanta]

^Adding to the above, Barry Goldwater in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1968 (and in 1972), and Ronald Reagan in 1980 almost certainly won Thurmond 1948 voters, particularly since all three of these Republicans were endorsed by Thurmond himself. Thurmond's influence helped to decide South Carolina in those years, particularly in 1968, when Nixon prevailed by a narrow margin over George Wallace. In 1976 of course, South Carolina went by 13% for Jimmy Carter, although Thurmond endorsed and campaigned for Gerald Ford. It's possible that Ford still won a majority of living Thurmond 1948 voters, but my guess is that Carter cut deeply into them-of course, his overall margin of victory was provided by blacks. Most living Thurmond 1948 voters in Georgia, on the other hand, probably went for their native son Carter.

I am not totally sure that Nixon won Thurmond voters in 1968 considering that George Wallace destroyed him among White voters in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana - three states where Thurmond swept in 1948 as he was put on the ballot as the official Democratic candidate (and which collectively had roughly half of the total national votes for Strom).

That's true. I should have said Thurmond voters in South Carolina, where Nixon did best in the counties that had strongly supported Thurmond twenty years previously. In the other Deep Southern States, they almost certainly did go for George Wallace.

South Carolina results:

Thurmond: 72% with 102,607 votes

Wallace: 32% with 215,430 votes

I expect that the majority of Thurmond voters went for Wallace. Notice that the number of Wallace voters was double the number of Thurmond voters, despite being a way smaller share of the electorate. You have to remember when looking at the percentages that the majority of southerners were disenfranchised in the 1940s. MS and SC had some of the strictest voting rules in the union, and these laws essentially kept their states as Democratic strongholds for almost a century — from the end of Reconstruction to the Civil Rights era.

I'm aware about how many poorer whites were excluded from the electorate of South Carolina and of many other states prior to the middle of the twentieth century. Between 1948 and 1952, turnout in South Carolina, in particular, increased significantly, rising from 142,571 to 341,086. Much of that increase in turnout clearly benefited the Republicans, as Dwight D. Eisenhower came very close to winning South Carolina that year. There is evidence to suggest that many of the Dixiecratic voters of 1948 were among the first to break to Republicans within the South, as they did for Eisenhower, and later for Nixon. It must also be remembered that Republicans generally established themselves in the urban and suburban areas of those states first, before branching out into the rurals-and Dixiecratic voters tended to be wealthier, more educated, and more concentrated in such areas.

Moreover, Thomas E. Dewey only got 4% of the vote in South Carolina in 1948. I wouldn't be surprised if most of that elite Thurmond vote went to Nixon in 1968, as it did for Eisenhower in 1952, while Wallace's support rested heavily upon the upcountry whites who had backed Harry Truman, in addition to those whites who gained the franchise following the abolition of the poll tax. Hubert Humphrey generally prevailed in the Black Belt due to newly enfranchised black voters-an effect due to the Voting Rights Act. Kevin Philips in The Emerging Republican Majority provides a pretty solid explanation of the support Wallace found among poorer, upcountry whites.

It seems that Republicans did well in SC areas that voted Thurmond when there was no Dixiecrat option on the ballot (1952, 1960).  I'd speculate that this is backlash to Dem policies on civil rights and not a true party switchover like we saw in 1964 and 1972.  In 1968, Wallace beat Nixon in several of the Johnson won counties, and it would make sense that the majority of Dixiecrats would support a segregationist over a national Republican.

The Johnson counties where Wallace prevailed had been among Strom Thurmond's weakest counties in 1948, and they were precisely the counties where the upcountry, poorer whites, who were loyal to the New Deal and the Great Society, and took longer to break away from the national Democratic Party, were concentrated. The two counties Harry Truman won in South Carolina against Thurmond (Anderson and Spartanburg) are both upcountry counties. In 1964, both went for Lyndon Johnson-who also won most of the other Upcountry Counties where Thurmond had garnered the weakest majorities. In 1968, the two Truman-Johnson counties split: Nixon won Spartanburg County with a plurality (with Wallace placing ahead of Hubert Humphrey), while Wallace won Anderson County by nearly 30% (and with a majority). This provides further credence to Philips' claims that Wallace took the votes of those upcountry whites who had stuck with Truman and Johnson, and had been the most reluctant supporters of Thurmond's segregationist candidacy.

Interesting stuff.  I'll need to snag a copy of that book. Strange how other southern states gave much stronger support to Wallace. I guess Thurmond had a home state advantage...a