What are the odds of the Dems winning the Senate if they win the presidency?

[win win]

What do you think the odds are now?
And what are the odds if they win the presidency?

[Heir of Camelot]

My gut is that the odds are about 1 in 3. If Bullock jumps in at the last minute I thing it's 40%

If young people turn out in droves to vote for Bernie I'd say it's likely as most models don't take that into account.

[Pericles]

Maybe it's that the odds of Dems winning the presidency are around 60%, and the odds of them winning the Senate when they win the presidency are about 50%, while the odds of them winning the Senate and not the presidency are like 1%. So overall they have around a 30% chance of winning the Senate.

However, a presidential win ranges from anything from a 278 EV win to a landslide in the Electoral College, and the actual chances of a very close Dem win are not that high. So if Dems win states like North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia presidentially, those Senate seats probably flip too (same for if they somehow win Iowa). Plus a good national environment makes upsets in Republican territory like Kansas, Alaska and Montana easier to achieve, while meaning that Collins and Gardner would have to outrun Trump by even more and so reducing their chances.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The odds are decent now, since AK, AZ, CO, GA, KS, ME, NC, SC and TX are targets. IA, KY, MT, WVA and AL are now off the table, Dems only need 4

[Orser67]

Before it looked like the party would likely nominate one of Bloomberg or Sanders, I thought there was about 33% chance each of:

*Republican president with a Republican Senate
*Democratic president with a Republican Senate
*Democratic president with a Democratic Senate

Now, I'm really not sure.

[Frenchrepublican]

Around 50%

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

About 50%. If things are going that well for Democrats, Maine and North Carolina are probably tossups at worst, but we’d need both. Or lose one and win a Georgia seat

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ,CO, ME, NC or KS will flip

[We Live in Black and White]

It hinges entirely on how big the win is. I'm willing to chance saying that we probably have two seats (Colorado for sure and most likely Arizona with the way polling is going) no matter what happens, but picking up the rest is a matter of national performance.

[Badger]

If the Democrat wins the presidency, there's still about a 60% chance Republicans maintain the Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good AZ, CO, ME and one of the following AL, GA, KS and NC will give them the Senate

[MillennialModerate]

If Democrats win the Presidency then I have a hard time not seeing a Democratic Senate
ME, CO, AZ all seem likely to flip in a Dem win.

One of the other close states will likely make it 4 (which will be needed cause of AL)

Now a GOP win means the Senate is out until 2026.

[Frenchrepublican]

If Democrats win the Presidency then I have a hard time not seeing a Democratic Senate
ME, CO, AZ all seem likely to flip in a Dem win.

One of the other close states will likely make it 4 (which will be needed cause of AL)

Now a GOP win means the Senate is out until 2026.

It wouldn’t be enough

47+CO+AZ+ME-AL=49, you would still need either GA or NC to have majority, but even if Trump loses it’s not a given that NC would flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Revised map AZ, CO, ME and NC, where Cunningham or Smith can win on Cooper's coattails.  GA, KS and AL are class B seats

[Epaminondas]

If Democrats win the Presidency then I have a hard time not seeing a Democratic Senate
ME, CO, AZ all seem likely to flip in a Dem win.

One of the other close states will likely make it 4 (which will be needed cause of AL)

Now a GOP win means the Senate is out until 2026.

Surely you misspoke. How would Trump winning with 45% in 2020 save Toomey and Johnson in 2022 in 2018-Dem-landslide territory, with Grassley at 89 years old and Burr less popular than ever in NC?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good, TX is definitely in play with Hegar, with Trump's sagging approvals

[Figueira]

If they win the presidency? Probably around 70%.

[Coldstream]

If you count 50-50 as a win due to the VP tie splitting then high. I can’t see the dems winning the presidency and not winning the senate races in Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina and Maine. If you mean 51-49 or better then I’d say about 1/3 , depending on if they get some luck in Georgia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Depends on our nominee, Bernie wont have a scandal, but Biden does. How, Trump approvals end up

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maybe 1% at best. The Democrats will have a tough time gaining three Senate seats, (four new seats once you figure in Doug Jones' probable loss in Alabama). I do think the Democrats will likely have a net gain of two Senate seats, but that's not enuf to flip the Senate, even with control of One Observatory Circle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A Bullock candidacy would have secured the Senate, but Chuck Todd puts AL, AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, ME and NC at risk seats, and will determine control. If Sessions get the nomination,  he can still lose based on his Russian links

[Astatine]

Independently from Presidency, I have the chances of a Dem Senate currently at 33 % (50-50 at 12 %), so assuming they win the Presidency, the chances would be close to 50 %.

43 seats are safe or not up for election, so they must hold onto their three likely seats (MN, NH, MI) and gain CO, putting them at 47. The odds are good in AZ, not bad in ME and relatively open in NC, which would break the magic 50 seats. Gaining seats beyond is hard, the next most probable flips would be GA-Special, IA, GA, KS, AK and TX (with decreasing probability), everything else seems or is (almost) impossible to flip as of now. And AL is lost anyways.