Who were Anderson’s 1980 general election voters?

[Arbitrage1980]

Anderson and Perot had similar base: both were very strong in New England and Rocky Mountain West, as they appealed to libertarians, moderate Republicans, and others who did not like the two parties. Anderson probbly cost Carter MA, VT, ME, NY.

[Arbitrage1980]

Anderson and Perot had similar base: both were very strong in New England and Rocky Mountain West, as they appealed to libertarians, moderate Republicans, and others who did not like the two parties. Anderson probably cost Carter MA, VT, ME, NY.

He definitely cost Carter Massachusetts. Reagan won the state by only 0.15%, and it was the first time since 1956 that it had voted Republican. Ted Kennedy primary supporters probably comprised a large portion of Anderson's support there, and some also went to Reagan. Carter was never that popular in Massachusetts-in 1976, he actually underperformed McGovern throughout much of the state, particularly in Boston, despite receiving a much higher nationwide percentage than McGovern did.

McGovern won MA by 9%; Carter won it by nearly 16%. Where did he underperform McGovern in the state?

[Arbitrage1980]

Anderson and Perot had similar base: both were very strong in New England and Rocky Mountain West, as they appealed to libertarians, moderate Republicans, and others who did not like the two parties. Anderson probably cost Carter MA, VT, ME, NY.

He definitely cost Carter Massachusetts. Reagan won the state by only 0.15%, and it was the first time since 1956 that it had voted Republican. Ted Kennedy primary supporters probably comprised a large portion of Anderson's support there, and some also went to Reagan. Carter was never that popular in Massachusetts-in 1976, he actually underperformed McGovern throughout much of the state, particularly in Boston, despite receiving a much higher nationwide percentage than McGovern did.

McGovern won MA by 9%; Carter won it by nearly 16%. Where did he underperform McGovern in the state?

Suffolk County (Boston), as I mentioned in my post. I recall reading somewhere that McGovern got 66% in Suffolk County, but Carter received only 61%. Carter did better in Massachusetts overall than McGovern did, but the swing there was much less than the national swing, and certainly much less dramatic than the swings throughout the South (such as in Georgia and Arkansas). And it wasn't the first time that Massachusetts swung relatively weakly towards the Democrats compared to the national swing; in 1932, Roosevelt barely did better in the state than Al Smith, despite registering a massive increase over him in the rest of the country.

Yup. McGovern lost the national PV by 23% while Carter won it by 2%, a massive 25 point swing. MA only swung by 7%. A Dem such as Udall, Church, or Brown, probably would have won MA by 20-25. But Ford was a moderate midwestern Republican, so that probably dented Carter's margin as well.

The GA swing was insane. Nixon won GA by 50 points in 1972, winning every single county. In 1976 Carter won it by 33 and also won every county including the northeastern Appalachian counties that voted GOP in every election in history except 1976.