Who were Anderson’s 1980 general election voters?
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  Who were Anderson’s 1980 general election voters?
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Author Topic: Who were Anderson’s 1980 general election voters?  (Read 1451 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: February 15, 2020, 04:45:07 PM »

Were they Ted Kennedy primary voters? Were they his own primary voters?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2020, 06:20:22 PM »

Multiple sources actually.

1. Some Kennedy primary voters, though Reagan also dipped into this pie a bit too.

2. His own primary voters/Liberal Republicans.

3. Liberal Party of New York supporters - If you believe Roger Stone's story, the whole thing about him dropping off an unopened brief case to a high power attorney with a lot of influence in the LPNY, to ensure that Anderson got on the ballot in New York to split the vote.

4. I seem to recall he also did well with the Jewish Vote.

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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2020, 06:59:18 PM »
« Edited: February 15, 2020, 07:02:45 PM by Does the title even matter? »

NPR listeners who ski?

More seriously, here's a map:

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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2020, 11:44:02 PM »

College students.
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Orser67
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« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2020, 11:32:51 AM »

Moderate Republicans, liberal Democrats, and moderate-to-liberal independents. Kind of a strange coalition, but it makes sense given that a lot of liberals hated Carter and a lot of moderates were wary of Reagan. His supporters also tended to be younger, whiter, and live outside of the South.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2020, 06:28:01 PM »

Anderson and Perot had similar base: both were very strong in New England and Rocky Mountain West, as they appealed to libertarians, moderate Republicans, and others who did not like the two parties. Anderson probbly cost Carter MA, VT, ME, NY.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2020, 09:38:40 AM »

Anderson and Perot had similar base: both were very strong in New England and Rocky Mountain West, as they appealed to libertarians, moderate Republicans, and others who did not like the two parties. Anderson probably cost Carter MA, VT, ME, NY.

He definitely cost Carter Massachusetts. Reagan won the state by only 0.15%, and it was the first time since 1956 that it had voted Republican. Ted Kennedy primary supporters probably comprised a large portion of Anderson's support there, and some also went to Reagan. Carter was never that popular in Massachusetts-in 1976, he actually underperformed McGovern throughout much of the state, particularly in Boston, despite receiving a much higher nationwide percentage than McGovern did.
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bagelman
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« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2020, 04:09:21 PM »

Here is the US apportioned based on Anderson 1980 voters



(RI 7, CT 15)

As you can see, Yankees as we knew: moderate old school Eisenhower Republicans, the descendants of the pre-FDR Republicans that brought us figures like Calvin Coolidge. These are the same Republicans that gave us Lincoln Chafee in RI. They have been slowly pushed out of the GOP starting with Goldwater, then Reagan, then Dubya, and now with Trump in office they were the New Hampshire Democratic primary voters that went with Buttigieg.
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Intell
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« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2020, 06:40:15 PM »

Anderson and Perot had similar base: both were very strong in New England and Rocky Mountain West, as they appealed to libertarians, moderate Republicans, and others who did not like the two parties. Anderson probably cost Carter MA, VT, ME, NY.

He definitely cost Carter Massachusetts. Reagan won the state by only 0.15%, and it was the first time since 1956 that it had voted Republican. Ted Kennedy primary supporters probably comprised a large portion of Anderson's support there, and some also went to Reagan. Carter was never that popular in Massachusetts-in 1976, he actually underperformed McGovern throughout much of the state, particularly in Boston, despite receiving a much higher nationwide percentage than McGovern did.

Busing Crisis is the reason for Carters underperformance in 1976.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2020, 07:52:26 PM »

I seem to recall he also did well with the Jewish Vote.
Voters unhappy with Carter’s Israel policy, but unwilling to vote for Reagan?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2020, 08:03:26 PM »

Anderson and Perot had similar base: both were very strong in New England and Rocky Mountain West, as they appealed to libertarians, moderate Republicans, and others who did not like the two parties. Anderson probably cost Carter MA, VT, ME, NY.

He definitely cost Carter Massachusetts. Reagan won the state by only 0.15%, and it was the first time since 1956 that it had voted Republican. Ted Kennedy primary supporters probably comprised a large portion of Anderson's support there, and some also went to Reagan. Carter was never that popular in Massachusetts-in 1976, he actually underperformed McGovern throughout much of the state, particularly in Boston, despite receiving a much higher nationwide percentage than McGovern did.

Busing Crisis is the reason for Carters underperformance in 1976.

Yes, I am aware of that, and Reagan did exceptionally well in the white ethnic neighborhoods of South Boston, in particular, in both 1980 and 1984. But Massachusetts was never that fond of Carters' brand of "Evangelism" and his background as a "good ole' boy", and many of Anderson's voters in the state came from liberal college towns like Cambridge and Brookline that were particularly dominated by these viewpoints.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2020, 08:05:43 PM »

Anderson and Perot had similar base: both were very strong in New England and Rocky Mountain West, as they appealed to libertarians, moderate Republicans, and others who did not like the two parties. Anderson probably cost Carter MA, VT, ME, NY.

He definitely cost Carter Massachusetts. Reagan won the state by only 0.15%, and it was the first time since 1956 that it had voted Republican. Ted Kennedy primary supporters probably comprised a large portion of Anderson's support there, and some also went to Reagan. Carter was never that popular in Massachusetts-in 1976, he actually underperformed McGovern throughout much of the state, particularly in Boston, despite receiving a much higher nationwide percentage than McGovern did.

McGovern won MA by 9%; Carter won it by nearly 16%. Where did he underperform McGovern in the state?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: February 17, 2020, 08:08:44 PM »

Anderson and Perot had similar base: both were very strong in New England and Rocky Mountain West, as they appealed to libertarians, moderate Republicans, and others who did not like the two parties. Anderson probably cost Carter MA, VT, ME, NY.

He definitely cost Carter Massachusetts. Reagan won the state by only 0.15%, and it was the first time since 1956 that it had voted Republican. Ted Kennedy primary supporters probably comprised a large portion of Anderson's support there, and some also went to Reagan. Carter was never that popular in Massachusetts-in 1976, he actually underperformed McGovern throughout much of the state, particularly in Boston, despite receiving a much higher nationwide percentage than McGovern did.

McGovern won MA by 9%; Carter won it by nearly 16%. Where did he underperform McGovern in the state?

Suffolk County (Boston), as I mentioned in my post. I recall reading somewhere that McGovern got 66% in Suffolk County, but Carter received only 61%. Carter did better in Massachusetts overall than McGovern did, but the swing there was much less than the national swing, and certainly much less dramatic than the swings throughout the South (such as in Georgia and Arkansas). And it wasn't the first time that Massachusetts swung relatively weakly towards the Democrats compared to the national swing; in 1932, Roosevelt barely did better in the state than Al Smith, despite registering a massive increase over him in the rest of the country.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2020, 10:15:06 PM »

Anderson and Perot had similar base: both were very strong in New England and Rocky Mountain West, as they appealed to libertarians, moderate Republicans, and others who did not like the two parties. Anderson probably cost Carter MA, VT, ME, NY.

He definitely cost Carter Massachusetts. Reagan won the state by only 0.15%, and it was the first time since 1956 that it had voted Republican. Ted Kennedy primary supporters probably comprised a large portion of Anderson's support there, and some also went to Reagan. Carter was never that popular in Massachusetts-in 1976, he actually underperformed McGovern throughout much of the state, particularly in Boston, despite receiving a much higher nationwide percentage than McGovern did.

McGovern won MA by 9%; Carter won it by nearly 16%. Where did he underperform McGovern in the state?

Suffolk County (Boston), as I mentioned in my post. I recall reading somewhere that McGovern got 66% in Suffolk County, but Carter received only 61%. Carter did better in Massachusetts overall than McGovern did, but the swing there was much less than the national swing, and certainly much less dramatic than the swings throughout the South (such as in Georgia and Arkansas). And it wasn't the first time that Massachusetts swung relatively weakly towards the Democrats compared to the national swing; in 1932, Roosevelt barely did better in the state than Al Smith, despite registering a massive increase over him in the rest of the country.

Yup. McGovern lost the national PV by 23% while Carter won it by 2%, a massive 25 point swing. MA only swung by 7%. A Dem such as Udall, Church, or Brown, probably would have won MA by 20-25. But Ford was a moderate midwestern Republican, so that probably dented Carter's margin as well.

The GA swing was insane. Nixon won GA by 50 points in 1972, winning every single county. In 1976 Carter won it by 33 and also won every county including the northeastern Appalachian counties that voted GOP in every election in history except 1976.
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