How would you grade polling firms. (For me shocking inaccurate)
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  How would you grade polling firms. (For me shocking inaccurate)
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Question: How would you grade polling firms?
#1
Grade A
 
#2
Grade B
 
#3
Grade C
 
#4
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#5
Grade E
 
#6
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Author Topic: How would you grade polling firms. (For me shocking inaccurate)  (Read 136 times)
Queen Isuelt
MissScarlett
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« on: February 15, 2020, 04:28:37 AM »
« edited: February 15, 2020, 04:38:22 AM by Pete Is more corrupt than the GOP »

Polling firms have been so so bad this cycle. They were also very bad in 2018. Martha mcsally winning Arizona by 6-7 pts.

Two days before New Hampshire, we had three polls with Amy on 5%, 6% and 4%. We had a yougov Iowa poll on 5% one day before Iowa.

Every poll sanders is overpolled. The only candidate that is underperforming is RCP average.

National polls are dreadful
Morning consult online clickbait using the same platforms as survey monkey.

From a cost perspective I completely get it how expensive it is to get accurate surveys and doing weekly surveys the only thing method is online panelling but the polls are badly inaccurate.

Can we really take any poll seriously if 40% of the audience surveyed don’t know who Pete, Amy, Gabbard are? These aren’t voters there people who are clicking buttons.

I have zero confidence in any polls. Progressives are either being oversampled or Bernie is underperforming his poll numbers.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2020, 04:45:17 AM »

Overall polling is reasonably accurate, even in 2016 the polling error was not unusually large it was more that the pundits misinterpreted the data and were overconfident about Clinton's chances.

Primaries are hard to poll, especially early on and with so many candidates-there are tons of undecideds. Iowa polling also should be judged on the first alignment results, Bernie's winning margin there of 3.4% is almost exactly the same as his margin in the polling average of 3.7%-the main difference is Buttigieg did a bit better and Biden a bit worse than the average said.

So grade B I guess, I'm not sure what a B means to other people but to me it means they are pretty good but still have room for improvement.
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