Demographics and top issues of Gingrich 2012 voters (user search)
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  Demographics and top issues of Gingrich 2012 voters (search mode)
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Author Topic: Demographics and top issues of Gingrich 2012 voters  (Read 1246 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: February 11, 2020, 01:35:07 AM »

What were the demographics and top issues for Gingrich 2012 primary voters?
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2020, 01:50:16 PM »

This is actually an interesting topic.  If you look at competitive states where Gingrich actually won a decent number of counties (MS, AL, FL, etc.), it looks like he did his best in White, non-Appalachian rural areas. 

In the South, Romney tended to dominate with urban Republicans and those living in majority-Black areas (MS Delta, Black Belt, etc.) while Santorum was more preferred in (the very White) highland areas.  Gingrich's support laid between these two extremes.  I'm not exactly  sure what that suggests about each of these candidates or their campaigns, but there does seem to be a gradient of Romney-to-Santorum support in the Southern contests that is directly correlated with Black %. 
My theory is that racists and nativists were Gingrich-Trump voters, die-hard evangelicals were Santorum-Cruz voters, and anti-trade voters were Santorum-Trump voters.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2020, 07:18:29 PM »

The one exception to this is, once again, Southern Republicans living in majority-Black communities.  These areas swung Romney -> Trump.  
Maybe Romney voters were split among the non-Trump candidates, giving Trump pluralities?
New Hampshire's not representative of his performance in Southern states, but the exits there showed him doing well with older voters, "very conservative" people, and Tea Party supporters.

http://web.archive.org/web/20120504104948/https://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nh/
Older voters sounds like Trump voters, “very conservative” sounds like Cruz voters, and Tea Party supporters sounds like they could be either.
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