Demographics and top issues of Gingrich 2012 voters

[darklordoftech]

What were the demographics and top issues for Gingrich 2012 primary voters?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I know a Gingrich voter in SC, he's around 60, Evangelical, and thought Romney wasn't conservative enough.

[Del Tachi]

This is actually an interesting topic.  If you look at competitive states where Gingrich actually won a decent number of counties (MS, AL, FL, etc.), it looks like he did his best in White, non-Appalachian rural areas. 

In the South, Romney tended to dominate with urban Republicans and those living in majority-Black areas (MS Delta, Black Belt, etc.) while Santorum was more preferred in (the very White) highland areas.  Gingrich's support laid between these two extremes.  I'm not exactly  sure what that suggests about each of these candidates or their campaigns, but there does seem to be a gradient of Romney-to-Santorum support in the Southern contests that is directly correlated with Black %. 

[darklordoftech]

This is actually an interesting topic.  If you look at competitive states where Gingrich actually won a decent number of counties (MS, AL, FL, etc.), it looks like he did his best in White, non-Appalachian rural areas. 

In the South, Romney tended to dominate with urban Republicans and those living in majority-Black areas (MS Delta, Black Belt, etc.) while Santorum was more preferred in (the very White) highland areas.  Gingrich's support laid between these two extremes.  I'm not exactly  sure what that suggests about each of these candidates or their campaigns, but there does seem to be a gradient of Romney-to-Santorum support in the Southern contests that is directly correlated with Black %. 

My theory is that racists and nativists were Gingrich-Trump voters, die-hard evangelicals were Santorum-Cruz voters, and anti-trade voters were Santorum-Trump voters.

[Del Tachi]

This is actually an interesting topic.  If you look at competitive states where Gingrich actually won a decent number of counties (MS, AL, FL, etc.), it looks like he did his best in White, non-Appalachian rural areas. 

In the South, Romney tended to dominate with urban Republicans and those living in majority-Black areas (MS Delta, Black Belt, etc.) while Santorum was more preferred in (the very White) highland areas.  Gingrich's support laid between these two extremes.  I'm not exactly  sure what that suggests about each of these candidates or their campaigns, but there does seem to be a gradient of Romney-to-Santorum support in the Southern contests that is directly correlated with Black %. 

My theory is that racists and nativists were Gingrich-Trump voters, die-hard evangelicals were Santorum-Cruz voters, and anti-trade voters were Santorum-Trump voters.

Cruz did pretty well in areas that Romney had won in 2012, though.  The Appalachian Santorum areas went for Trump bigly; while the more "moderate" Gingrich and Romney voters stuck with more traditional GOP candidates in 2016.

The one exception to this is, once again, Southern Republicans living in majority-Black communities.  These areas swung Romney -> Trump. 

[VPH]

New Hampshire's not representative of his performance in Southern states, but the exits there showed him doing well with older voters, "very conservative" people, and Tea Party supporters.

http://web.archive.org/web/20120504104948/https://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nh/

[darklordoftech]

The one exception to this is, once again, Southern Republicans living in majority-Black communities.  These areas swung Romney -> Trump.  

Maybe Romney voters were split among the non-Trump candidates, giving Trump pluralities?

New Hampshire's not representative of his performance in Southern states, but the exits there showed him doing well with older voters, "very conservative" people, and Tea Party supporters.

http://web.archive.org/web/20120504104948/https://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nh/

Older voters sounds like Trump voters, “very conservative” sounds like Cruz voters, and Tea Party supporters sounds like they could be either.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I voted Gingrich 2012 because (obviously unpopular opinion here) I like him, BUT also because I just wasn't a fan of Romney or Santorum. I honestly don't know how I would've voted between those two. I wasn't dead set on Gingrich though..it was just a really weak field in 2012.

[VPH]

Actually, I did find SC Exit Poll data and demographics seem similar to what's been noted here.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/behind-the-numbers/post/debates-late-deciders-propel-gingrich-to-win-in-south-carolina/2012/01/03/gIQAgIrGHQ_blog.html

[Orser67]

The one Gingrich supporter I knew argued that he was solidly conservative, had a fantastic resume, and was extremely smart.

[pikachu]

Actually, I did find SC Exit Poll data and demographics seem similar to what's been noted here.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/behind-the-numbers/post/debates-late-deciders-propel-gingrich-to-win-in-south-carolina/2012/01/03/gIQAgIrGHQ_blog.html

I think it's better to look at Alabama and Mississippi moreso than South Carolina because the primary happened at the moment where Gingrich had consolidated the anti-Romney vote. Because of that, you're not able to see what the differences are between Santorum and Gingrich's coalitions. Anyway, the main differences seem to be that Gingrich was stronger among men, non-college educated voters, Republicans, and somewhat conservative voters. I'm not entirely sure why the education split occurred, but the relative advantages with men and the somewhat conservative make sense considering Gingrich's ugly marital history and his history as an establishment conservative who lacked the flashy right-wing bona fides of Santorum.