Could Collins become even more vulnerable than McSally

[MT Treasurer]

No, I get that "Collins is DOA" has kind of become a meme but she’s definitely not more likely to lose than McSally.

[MT Treasurer]

Maine isn't that blue of a state. It's no Colorado. Collins only has to outrun Trump by a few points to win.

I don’t think it’s a given that she outperforms Trump. These things have a weird way of turning conventional wisdom on its head

Okay this is getting ridiculous now

[MT Treasurer]

Maine isn't that blue of a state. It's no Colorado. Collins only has to outrun Trump by a few points to win.

I don’t think it’s a given that she outperforms Trump. These things have a weird way of turning conventional wisdom on its head

Okay this is getting ridiculous now

Collins only survived because had Indy and Dem support. That isn't likely to happen this time around.

So why is she going to underperform Trump, exactly? Why does Gideon have more appeal in ME than Sanders? You’re insinuating that there will be no split-ticket voting here because of "polarization" and the fact that Collins has lost all of her crossover appeal because she’s been exposed as a R hack, so surely all those attack ads portraying her as a Trump pawn and reminding voters of her Kavanaugh/impeachment vote/etc. aren’t going to hurt her with the R base? If the race turns into generic R vs. generic D and candidates and electoral history don’t matter, why would she underperform Trump?

[MT Treasurer]

I think her chances of winning are being seriously overrated by Atlas and the media.

Yeah, they’re definitely being overrated.

I mean, just flip through a couple threads on this website and you'll see that she is, but alright. Her approval rating is on par with Trump's in the state and he's not winning there. She's in trouble.

I’ve flipped through those threads and all I’m seeing is posters repeatedly pointing out that Collins' impeachment/Kavanaugh/tax cut/etc. votes have caused her entire Democratic + independent support to evaporate (and that said crossover support is the only reason she’s won in the past), that she’s extremely unpopular, that 2020 is going to be her toughest race yet, that her personal and electoral history in this state don’t really matter all that much in the Trump era, that "polarization" is finally going to catch up with her, that she might not even outperform Trump, that she’s as vulnerable as Barbara Comstock, that she’s DOA, that Gideon is a strong candidate who’s running a great campaign, that Maine is a blue state where she’s going to need to win over a ton of Democrats, etc. How on earth are people overrating Susan Collins?

Her approval rating is on par with Trump's in which poll? PPP (D), which didn’t even test a Collins vs. Gideon match-up and had her losing to Generic D by 3 points even as Trump was losing by double digits? In Morning Consult, which has Trump at -9 approval in Iowa but -7 in Minnesota/-4 in Virginia, or +5 in Texas but +2 in Nebraska? Even in the two polls where she’s as unpopular as Trump, her approval rating among Republicans was lower than Trump's, and it’s not unreasonable to assume that most of those Republicans will warm up to and vote for her if the race turns into Generic R vs. Generic D.