2020 CDU Leadership Contest

[President Johnson]

CDU/FDP coalition when?

Never. The votes are just not there. While the Union has surged a few points in polls due to Covid, the FDP is doing pretty poorly for some months now. They have changed a number of people at the top, though Lindner is staying on. At least for now. The next coalition is Union and Greens, which has been obvious ever since this term started.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

CDU/FDP coalition when?

Germany had that from 2009-2013 and it was one of the most chaotic and unpopular government in recent German history and yes, it was more chaotic and unpopular than the Grand Coalition 2013-2017.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So who is Norbert Röttgen (ideology-wise), and what are his chances?

[parochial boy]

So who is Norbert Röttgen (ideology-wise), and what are his chances?

Being the expert in German politics that I am (*cough*), I watched an interview with him on the Heute show where he seemed to basically go on and on about "being prepared for the future" and D-I-G-I-T-A-L-I-S-A-T-I-O-N.

Judging by the same episode, his chances are rated as precisely nil and it's all futile as Söder is going to be the next chancellor anyway

[Middle-aged Europe]

So who is Norbert Röttgen (ideology-wise), and what are his chances?

Norbert Röttgen is a generic centrist/liberal conservative who once failed to get elected minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia and who is almost certainly going to endorse fellow generic centrist/liberal conservative (and incumbent minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia) Armin Laschet on the second ballot of the upcoming convention. As to why he's even running... nobody really knows.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The next coalition is Union and Greens, which has been obvious ever since this term started.

There's still, sort of, the "Green-Red-Red is the Greens' only option to capture the Chancellorship for themselves scenario", although for that to happen the three parties would need to win a majority first. Which - given the polling numbers - doesn't seem likely to happen. So, yeah, it probably comes down to CDU-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

New SPIEGEL poll has Merz and Röttgen far ahead for party leader among CDU/CSU voters, with Laschet far behind:

38% Merz
29% Röttgen
11% Laschet

But for Chancellor candidate, Söder is far ahead among CDU/CSU voters:

61% Söder
18% Merz
  8% Röttgen
  2% Laschet

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cdu-vorsitz-merz-und-roettgen-liegen-klar-vor-laschet-umfrage-a-5c8232a4-55f5-41a4-9876-200b2903505a

[Pick Up the Phone]

New SPIEGEL poll has Merz and Röttgen far ahead for party leader among CDU/CSU voters, with Laschet far behind:

38% Merz
29% Röttgen
11% Laschet

But for Chancellor candidate, Söder is far ahead among CDU/CSU voters:

61% Söder
18% Merz
  8% Röttgen
  2% Laschet

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cdu-vorsitz-merz-und-roettgen-liegen-klar-vor-laschet-umfrage-a-5c8232a4-55f5-41a4-9876-200b2903505a

LOL. Good to keep it mind that the voters' preference doesn't matter in the slightest. But shocking to see Röttgen at 29% - Laschet is still the favorite at the moment. Laschet as CDU chairman, Söder as candidate for 2021... seems like a reasonable compromise.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

BILD is reporting that Spahn is strongly considering throwing his name in for Kanzlerkandidat in March (?) if his polling numbers remain strong.


But then can someone clarify this for me: if Merz or Laschet wins next week, do they have to submit their name separately for Kanzlerkandidat? Or can they just be like, "Nah, I want to be the candidate, ignore this guy"? How does this process work?

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

BILD is reporting that Spahn is strongly considering throwing his name in for Kanzlerkandidat in March (?) if his polling numbers remain strong.


But then can someone clarify this for me: if Merz or Laschet wins next week, do they have to submit their name separately for Kanzlerkandidat? Or can they just be like, "Nah, I want to be the candidate, ignore this guy"? How does this process work?

The party leader and the Chancellor candidate are not necessarily the same person. Schröder wasn’t SPD party leader in 1998 nor 2005. Neither were Peer Steinbruck and Frank Walter-Steinmeier in their respective bids, or Olaf Scholz this year, for that matter. As for the Union, Edmund Stoiber was Chancellor candidate in 2002 (though he was CSU leader).

It is separate from the leadership. The party elites may choose whoever they feel, though the leader is always a strong contender for the position and obviously plays a key role in the decision.

[Lord Halifax]

Laschet as CDU chairman, Söder as candidate for 2021... seems like a reasonable compromise.

Do you still think Söder is the most likely chancellor candidate?

[Pick Up the Phone]

BILD is reporting that Spahn is strongly considering throwing his name in for Kanzlerkandidat in March (?) if his polling numbers remain strong.


But then can someone clarify this for me: if Merz or Laschet wins next week, do they have to submit their name separately for Kanzlerkandidat? Or can they just be like, "Nah, I want to be the candidate, ignore this guy"? How does this process work?

The party leader and the Chancellor candidate are not necessarily the same person. Schröder wasn’t SPD party leader in 1998 nor 2005. Neither were Peer Steinbruck and Frank Walter-Steinmeier in their respective bids, or Olaf Scholz this year, for that matter. As for the Union, Edmund Stoiber was Chancellor candidate in 2002 (though he was CSU leader).

It is separate from the leadership. The party elites may choose whoever they feel, though the leader is always a strong contender for the position and obviously plays a key role in the decision.

Basically this. There is no public contest for the position of Kanzlerkandidat as this is something the party elites decide. Think about the Merkel/Stoiber constellation in 2001/2002. There was a breakfast meeting in Stoiber's house ('Wolfratshauser Frühstück') and they made a decision. That's how things work here.

When it comes to the CDU/CSU, it is also important to keep in mind that we're talking about two different parties. And I really mean different. The CSU has its own party platform, its own leader, its own party-associated foundation (the Hanns Seidel Stiftung), its own political culture and is, in general, more hierarchically structured than the CDU. There is the strong expectation that the leader of the CSU has to be either Minister-President of Bavaria or Chancellor of Germany. In the CDU, there is no such thing, and in the SPD, the leader(s) can be literally anybody. For instance, Saskia Esken does not have a prominent position in parliament and Norbert Walter-Borjans is a former(!) state finance minister. Both are political lightweights.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Laschet as CDU chairman, Söder as candidate for 2021... seems like a reasonable compromise.

Do you still think Söder is the most likely chancellor candidate?

Good question. It's a bit unclear right now and much will depend on whether Söder really wants to leave his cushy position in Bavaria (where he can basically stay in power indefinitely). He did a great job in raising his national profile during the COVID-19 crisis and I would still consider him the likeliest candidate, but we first have to see who the new CDU leader will be. For example, I don't see Merz winning the leadership contest but giving Söder the Kanzlerkandidatur.

[Pick Up the Phone]

BILD is reporting that Spahn is strongly considering throwing his name in for Kanzlerkandidat in March (?) if his polling numbers remain strong.

That's a big 'if', but it makes sense. Spahn is quite popular right now, has high name recognition, and good reasons to try to seize the moment. And he wouldn't be a bad candidate. Elected to parliament at Age 22 (2002), he's both young and experienced - and the fact that he's openly gay doesn't matter to anyone but the far right. His main problem is the intra-party perception that he's way too power-hungry and would be well advised to 'wait his turn'. Many ambitious CDU/CSU politicians are afraid that if Spahn gets the Chancellorship in 2021, he could govern for 20+ years (hypothetical scenario of course), destroying their own career prospects. The German political system is about consensus and party loyalty after all.

[Lord Halifax]

Laschet as CDU chairman, Söder as candidate for 2021... seems like a reasonable compromise.

Do you still think Söder is the most likely chancellor candidate?

Good question. It's a bit unclear right now and much will depend on whether Söder really wants to leave his cushy position in Bavaria (where he can basically stay in power indefinitely). He did a great job in raising his national profile during the COVID-19 crisis and I would still consider him the likeliest candidate, but we first have to see who the new CDU leader will be. For example, I don't see Merz winning the leadership contest but giving Söder the Kanzlerkandidatur.

So you think Merz has a real chance of winning the leadership now? Back in October you seemed to think Laschet had it in the bag. I also got the impression Röttgen had improved his chances somewhat, he's been gaining in the polls and I thought that had made him a more serious contender.

Are there going to be a run-off if no one gets 50% like in 2018? If so won't the support of the two moderates coalesce behind whoever gets to the run-off against Merz?

For what it's worth the latest poll has Merz dropping among CDU supporters, which are supposedly more right wing than the delegates. If the two moderates lead Merz 50/39 among supporters they should have an even bigger lead among the delegates (maybe 2:1?).

Merz 39 (-10)
Laschet 25 (+10)
Röttgen 25 (+3)
None of them 12% (-3)

Merz is also losing support as Chancellor candidate among CDU supporters while Söder is gaining.

"Would be a good Chancellor candidate"

Söder 80 (+7)
Merz 40 (-5)
Röttgen 35 (+5)
Laschet 32 (-4)

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2473~magnifier_pos-8.html

[Tender Branson]

The events in Washington D.C. are certainly not helping Merz's chances for CDU leader either.

Merz is seen as a Trump-like extremist/hardliner of some sort within the CDU and among CDU members, which might have been somewhat popular in the past years.

But considering the events, the CDU delegates might now opt for Laschet or Röttgen as a more de-escalating alternative ...

[Lord Halifax]

Laschet is still the favorite at the moment.

Who do you think is the favorite now?

Do you expect Röttgen and Laschet's supporters to back the other in the second round against Merz?  (I assume Merz is certain to make the run-off). Or do some Röttgen supporters prefer Merz to Laschet?

EDIT: I'd also be very interested in answers from other German posters.

[Astatine]

The events in Washington D.C. are certainly not helping Merz's chances for CDU leader either.

Merz is seen as a Trump-like extremist/hardliner of some sort within the CDU and among CDU members, which might have been somewhat popular in the past years.

But considering the events, the CDU delegates might now opt for Laschet or Röttgen as a more de-escalating alternative ...

I strongly doubt that there are any delegates who will change their vote from Merz to Laschet/Röttgen simply because of the capitol riots.

[Lord Halifax]

Why is Merz so heavily favored by the betting markets? Ignorance, too much emphasis on polls of the public or...?

Is it due to the digital vote? (no "peer pressure" to vote for an establishment candidate). I'd imagine CDU delegates were extremely "vanilla" and establishmentarian. Merz got close last time, but now they're way ahead so "why rock the boat" and risk losing centrist voters by going right. Doesnt really make sense to me.

This party researcher seems to think Laschet is still favored, simply due to being the most experienced. How is his track record wrt predictions?

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/interview-mit-volker-kronenberg-parteienforscher-empfiehlt-laschet-an-cdu-spitze-keine-losloesung-von-vorsitz-und-kandidatur/26781916.html?ticket=ST-2544320-A4KBduM3lHlTu262skuh-ap1

[CumbrianLefty]

The events in Washington D.C. are certainly not helping Merz's chances for CDU leader either.

Merz is seen as a Trump-like extremist/hardliner of some sort within the CDU and among CDU members, which might have been somewhat popular in the past years.

But considering the events, the CDU delegates might now opt for Laschet or Röttgen as a more de-escalating alternative ...

I strongly doubt that there are any delegates who will change their vote from Merz to Laschet/Röttgen simply because of the capitol riots.

Few would for *just* that reason, perhaps - but it maybe creates a somewhat worse climate for him?

[palandio]

Why is Merz so heavily favored by the betting markets? Ignorance, too much emphasis on polls of the public or...?

Depending on the betting market and its participants there can be a lot of wishful thinking involved. Merz is certainly not a Trumpist but rather some kind of Reaganite who is popular with people that are nostalgic of a more ideologically pure CDU like it was in the opposition years (1998-2005). It's quite likely that more ideologically oriented people are more engaged in the betting markets in the first place.

Is it due to the digital vote? (no "peer pressure" to vote for an establishment candidate). I'd imagine CDU delegates were extremely "vanilla" and establishmentarian. Merz got close last time, but now they're way ahead so "why rock the boat" and risk losing centrist voters by going right. Doesnt really make sense to me.

Merz is not anti-establishment in every sense of the word. It's just that many members and leading figures think that times have moved on. But he and the direction he represents remain popular with many in the CDU.

This party researcher seems to think Laschet is still favored, simply due to being the most experienced. How is his track record wrt predictions?

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/interview-mit-volker-kronenberg-parteienforscher-empfiehlt-laschet-an-cdu-spitze-keine-losloesung-von-vorsitz-und-kandidatur/26781916.html?ticket=ST-2544320-A4KBduM3lHlTu262skuh-ap1

I don't know about the party researcher, but I will say why Merz might have a chance. I think that when AKK ran for the first time she had governed the Saarland for several years; but it's only the Saarland and apart from that she was mostly an unknown entity and seen as representing a continuation of Merkel's course. Laschet and Röttgen (and to mention all relevant persons Spahn and Söder) are all known entities.
Laschet is moderate, jovial and well-connected, but during the COVID-19 crisis he has become unpopular with the core of lockdown fanatics for seemingly being too laissez-faire.
Röttgen lost the 2012 election in NRW and was demoted from Minister of Environment by Merkel afterwards, which would play well in the story of a candidate like Merz but makes a more consense-oriented candidate like Röttgen look like a doormat.
In the end it is not said that the non-Merz vote will converge on a single candidate.

[Lord Halifax]

In the end it is not said that the non-Merz vote will converge on a single candidate.

Thanks a lot for your answers.

Not sure what you mean by "in the end", are you talking about the first or the second round? Don't you expect most of the non-Merz vote to converge in the run-off? (assuming there is a run-off, but there was in 2018).

[palandio]

By "in the end" I mean the run-off, too. It is quite likely that a majority of the non-Merz vote will eventually converge, but a significant minority sitting out the run-off or even going to Merz could be decisive in a close election. Compared to AKK in 2018 I can see reasons why a more sizeable minority of the non-Merz vote would not go to Laschet, particularly his public image regarding the COVID-19 crisis.

[Astatine]

The events in Washington D.C. are certainly not helping Merz's chances for CDU leader either.

Merz is seen as a Trump-like extremist/hardliner of some sort within the CDU and among CDU members, which might have been somewhat popular in the past years.

But considering the events, the CDU delegates might now opt for Laschet or Röttgen as a more de-escalating alternative ...

I strongly doubt that there are any delegates who will change their vote from Merz to Laschet/Röttgen simply because of the capitol riots.

Few would for *just* that reason, perhaps - but it maybe creates a somewhat worse climate for him?

I don't really think it has any impact at all. As pointed out by palandio, Merz is more comparable to a Reaganite, nobody (but maybe some young Twitter lefties or so) sees him as German Trump. He's way too intellectual for that too.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Laschet is still the favorite at the moment.

Who do you think is the favorite now?

Do you expect Röttgen and Laschet's supporters to back the other in the second round against Merz?  (I assume Merz is certain to make the run-off). Or do some Röttgen supporters prefer Merz to Laschet?

EDIT: I'd also be very interested in answers from other German posters.

Yes, I still think that Laschet is favored. He has plenty of establishment support and Merz hasn't done anything over the last couple of weeks to improve his position. If anything, COVID-19 may have convinced even more delegates that now is not the time for experiments but for steady leadership.

And that's what Merz would be by the way. An experiment - NOT an anti-establishment option as others have already remarked. I think this is not unimportant as the difference between Merkel and Merz is one of style rather than substance. Ideologically, they are probably closer to each other than... let's say Charlie Baker and Rob Portman to give an U.S. example. Even the term Reaganite seems a little exaggerated (although I see the point). In the end, almost all of Merz's supposed conservatism is confined to three points: (1) free market positions; (2) Transatlanticism; (3) empty nostalgic gestures. I mean... the man has turned from being hardcore conservative to accepting same-sex marriage and talking favorably about environmentalism and a possible CDU-Greens coalition. He would face the same realities and problems as Merkel and he is pragmatic enough to know when he needs to adapt.

Agree that most of the non-Merz vote will eventually converge. Will it be enough for Laschet or will more Röttgen voters go for Merz than Spahn voters did last time? Hard to say but I don't see any good reason to think that Merz should feel confident about it.