2020 CDU Leadership Contest

[H. Ross Peron]

https://apnews.com/ceea5a109ba1f7c157e18d77864d2427?utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter

BERLIN (AP) — Angela Merkel’s designated successor will quit her role as head of the Germany’s strongest party and won’t stand for the chancellorship following a debacle in a regional election.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer informed leaders of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union on Monday that she will begin the process of organizing a leadership contest in the summer.

The move comes days after her party was heavily criticized for its handling of a vote for governor in the eastern state of Thuringia. That saw the Christian Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany back a centrist candidate, breaking what is widely regarded as a taboo around cooperating with extremists in German politics.

[Astatine]

So we might get another long-term CDU leader?

If we look at recent times, a short-term leader was always succeeded by a long-term leader and vice versa.

Rainer Barzel 1971-1973
Helmut Kohl 1973-1998
Wolfgang Schäuble 1998-2000
Angela Merkel 2000-2018
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer 2018-2020

I suspect that this is the final und best chance for Friedrich Merz. Centrists will have a hard time finding a formidable and broadly-appealing candidate:

Daniel Günther might be popular in his home state but the Eastern associations would crush him due to his views and comments on cooperation with Die Linke.
Ursula von der Leyen is gone.
Tobias Hans is another Governor whose profile arose in recent times but he is from Saarland and would be perceived as AKK 2.0 as he is her hand-chosen successor.
Armin Laschet might be the only option, plus he is Governor of the largest state, but he is not somebody who energizes the base.
I guess Jens Spahn will not run this time but rather when the Leadership is open next time.

Personally, I feel a little bit sorry for AKK. She is from my home state and I met her in person sometimes, and she is not somebody who I'd perceive as incompetent, although I disagree with her politically. The job she did as Governor was quite decent, not necessarily good but not bad either. She just did not get along with Berlin politics, as her political instincts which brought her to great successes in Saarland are not enough to survive on federal level. That's politics.
Plus although her handling of gaffes and elections was extremely bad in general (she really was not made for the leadership top job), her role as Secretary of Defence should be distinguished from that. Ursula von der Leyen was a horrible SoD (like most of her predecessors), so AKK inherited some tough work and did not manage it utterly bad. From what I heard from media, her approval among soldiers is much better than Ursula's as she is down-to-Earth and appeared to care more about the Bundeswehr than her job. But then again, those are some subjective reports.
Might be interesting to see whether she will still play a role in politics (maybe continue serving as SoD?) or retire. She does not have a Bundestag seat (and would run in my constituency if she still decided to run). Schäuble and Barzel did not retire immediately, as well as Erhard and Kiesinger, although the comparisons are hard to make.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Apparently, AKK's announcement came as a surprise and shock for the CDU's Presidium so she wasn't stabbed in the back by anyone but decided to call it quits after last week's events. If everybody in the party does whatever the hell he or she wants no matter what I'm asking them to do, I'd probably go to. AKK had not authority anymore.

As a Green and with regards to what Astatine said I'm also seeing some astonishing parallels to Simone Peter, who at one point served under AKK as environment minister in Saarland and eventually became one of the most lackluster party leaders the German Greens ever had on the federal level. For Saarlandians, the federal level often turns out to be "too big" a stage it seems.

As far as AKK succession is concerned, I'd say it will come down to either Laschet or Merz. Spahn has only a shot if Merz declines to run IMO. Maybe it will also depend on the precise procedure. Merz would have the advantage in a primary-like contest where all members can cast their vote, Laschet might win with the help of establishment backing on a party convention.

[brucejoel99]

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?

[Aurelio21]

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?

This is quite unlikely. Although she appears to have been the one who staged the disposal of AKK:
- Her now infamous claim of a new election in Thuringia (without any constitutional right to do so) was the first call for this, and immediately the CDU presidium took over this position
- She fired Mr Hirte, a confidant of Mr Mohring
- AKK famously unable to convince the only persons with a right to order new elections, the CDU Thuringia caucus
- The joint meeting of the coalition also ordered a new election and that the federal CDU had to take over this position, despite no right what ever to reign into intraparty affairs

To me, the most likely new CDU chairperson will be PM Armin Laschet of NRW. Mrs Merkel hat about 40 % of the party officials at her command, as the election of AKK has shown. With support of the JU and 100 % of the CDU NRW delegates, this would suffice.

Mr Merz has no natural constituency. There may be a puppet candidate (like Mr Spahn) to siphon away some potential support from him and command it to the Merkelista side. Plus his main assets like the CDU East Germany(to be clear: the non ancien régime parts, these are the core supporters of Mrs Merkel, please remember that Mr Mohring et al are stemming from integrated former indenpendent parties which were the true drivers of the Revolution of 1989 like Demokratischer Aufbruch, Neues Forum and Deutsche Soziale Union) are now burnt toast.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, so far everything seems to point to Laschet unless he stumbles and makes a serious mistake. There's also strong support for restoring a "the chairman must also be the chancellor-candidate" rule, so it's a likely scenario that he'll run for the Chanellery next year as well. Ideologically, Laschet is probably a successor Angela Merkel could very well live with, although it often seemed like she would have preferred another woman (von der Leyen, Kramp-Karrenbauer etc.) herself. Laschet means no (extreme) conservative turn to right, her legacy would essentially be preserved.

Then again, there's alot of uncertainty, chaos, panic, and confusion going on in the CDU right now with regards to the party's future in general. Since the weekend, more liberal wings of the CDU have openly declared a no-holds-barred war on the AfD-friendly, right-wing "Werteunion" (Values Union). Schleswig-Holstein's minister-president Daniel Günther and CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak have clashed over the party's ban on cooperating with the Left Party. There are rumours and speculations that the next Bundestag election won't be in September 2021, but possibly much sooner. It certainly took a while, but it almost seems like the CDU has now finally entered the same phase of desintegration which the SPD had already experienced over the last couple of years.

[brucejoel99]

Too bad. I have a lot of respect for Merkel. What she has accomplished & the crises she has sorted out over the last 15 years are nothing short of amazing. It's truly unfortunate that many people in Germany don't know how well they're doing, & thus choose to spew hatred against the government because "everything could be better," because I simply don't see any German politician able to fill her shoes.

[Pick Up the Phone]

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?

This is quite unlikely. Although she appears to have been the one who staged the disposal of AKK:
- Her now infamous claim of a new election in Thuringia (without any constitutional right to do so) was the first call for this, and immediately the CDU presidium took over this position
- She fired Mr Hirte, a confidant of Mr Mohring
- AKK famously unable to convince the only persons with a right to order new elections, the CDU Thuringia caucus
- The joint meeting of the coalition also ordered a new election and that the federal CDU had to take over this position, despite no right what ever to reign into intraparty affairs

What? Which infamous claim? Merkel's statement happened long after Söder and many others had already come out in favor of new elections. And she definitely has a constitutional right to call for them (just like any other German citizen); she only lacks the right to order them and that she didn't. I also find it difficult to establish a causal connection between the sacking of Hirte and AKK's decision. Hirte is a nobody who has created some bad headlines in the past. This was just the most convenient opportunity to (a) get rid of him and (b) convey the impression that the federal CDU is really serious about the Thuringia issue. Two birds - one stone.
________

The lead candidate of the Baden-Württemberg CDU (next state election: 2021) has just endorsed Jens Spahn and called for a "changing of the guard" within the party. I'm not sure if another run will actually help him, as he has already raised his national profile in 2018. And that wa most likely his main goal.

It really is a pity that Merkel doesn't want to run again. Make no mistake: She is still by far the best candidate the CDU has to offer and the only one who would have the chancellorship on lock. Great chance for Habeck or Baerbock though.

[Lord Halifax]

Yeah, so far everything seems to point to Laschet unless he stumbles and makes a serious mistake. There's also strong support for restoring a "the chairman must also be the chancellor-candidate" rule, so it's a likely scenario that he'll run for the Chanellery next year as well. Ideologically, Laschet is probably a successor Angela Merkel could very well live with, although it often seemed like she would have preferred another woman (von der Leyen, Kramp-Karrenbauer etc.) herself. Laschet means no (extreme) conservative turn to right, her legacy would essentially be preserved.

Then again, there's alot of uncertainty, chaos, panic, and confusion going on in the CDU right now with regards to the party's future in general. Since the weekend, more liberal wings of the CDU have openly declared a no-holds-barred war on the AfD-friendly, right-wing "Werteunion" (Values Union). Schleswig-Holstein's minister-president Daniel Günther and CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak have clashed over the party's ban on cooperating with the Left Party. There are rumours and speculations that the next Bundestag election won't be in September 2021, but possibly much sooner. It certainly took a while, but it almost seems like the CDU has now finally entered the same phase of desintegration which the SPD had already experienced over the last couple of years.

Why is Günther against the rule?

[Aurelio21]

What? Which infamous claim? Merkel's statement happened long after Söder and many others had already come out in favor of new elections. And she definitely has a constitutional right to call for them (just like any other German citizen); she only lacks the right to order them and that she didn't. I also find it difficult to establish a causal connection between the sacking of Hirte and AKK's decision. Hirte is a nobody who has created some bad headlines in the past. This was just the most convenient opportunity to (a) get rid of him and (b) convey the impression that the federal CDU is really serious about the Thuringia issue. Two birds - one stone.
________

The lead candidate of the Baden-Württemberg CDU (next state election: 2021) has just endorsed Jens Spahn and called for a "changing of the guard" within the party. I'm not sure if another run will actually help him, as he has already raised his national profile in 2018. And that wa most likely his main goal.

It really is a pity that Merkel doesn't want to run again. Make no mistake: She is still by far the best candidate the CDU has to offer and the only one who would have the chancellorship on lock. Great chance for Habeck or Baerbock though.

Sorry but calling for a new election from South Africa (that's where she was at the moment) before AKK as nominal CDU chair is unheard of. Every political commentator from Sueddeutsche (pro-SPD) to FAZ(conservative pro-CDU)  and Handelsblatt (Merkel's mouthpiece) sees it the same way:
By taking a leading role again, she dismantled AKK. Leading decisively is the most important qualitiy a leading politician has to prove. If not, bye bye, Felicia (or in this case, AKK).

It is quite naive to expect Mrs Merkel issue a statement like this by chance.

And have you ever heard of the autonomy of the local CDU branches? OK, this subsidiarity principle is quite hollow, and at least played to the outside. 
This breach of principle has damaged the CDU further. I do not like the AfD at all. Now they can repeat the mantra of the de-facto non-existent "left dictatorship" in Germany.

And to quote FDR: "In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way." Mr Hirte was sacked by Mrs Merkel without any warning. Usually, this is a topic for the CDU presidium, where the political position are dealt with(political proportion like x women, y men, and z number of Eastern Germans etc.).

[President Johnson]

I hope Armin Laschet wins this one. He's a pragmatic leader and seems to be a nice person. I think he's in a very favorable position since he controls the largest state party.

Obviously the entire crisis of the CDU goes back to the federal election of 2017. Angela Merkel should have declined running a fourth term and clearing the way for a fresh new start. At this point, she's basically just sitting her time out. That's also reflected in the atrocious approval rating for this cabinet. Like Kohl and Adenauer, CDU chancellors lose grip and awareness when it's time to leave.

[Antonio the Sixth]

ayy lmao

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, so far everything seems to point to Laschet unless he stumbles and makes a serious mistake. There's also strong support for restoring a "the chairman must also be the chancellor-candidate" rule, so it's a likely scenario that he'll run for the Chanellery next year as well. Ideologically, Laschet is probably a successor Angela Merkel could very well live with, although it often seemed like she would have preferred another woman (von der Leyen, Kramp-Karrenbauer etc.) herself. Laschet means no (extreme) conservative turn to right, her legacy would essentially be preserved.

Then again, there's alot of uncertainty, chaos, panic, and confusion going on in the CDU right now with regards to the party's future in general. Since the weekend, more liberal wings of the CDU have openly declared a no-holds-barred war on the AfD-friendly, right-wing "Werteunion" (Values Union). Schleswig-Holstein's minister-president Daniel Günther and CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak have clashed over the party's ban on cooperating with the Left Party. There are rumours and speculations that the next Bundestag election won't be in September 2021, but possibly much sooner. It certainly took a while, but it almost seems like the CDU has now finally entered the same phase of desintegration which the SPD had already experienced over the last couple of years.

Why is Günther against the rule?

Because in Thuringia (and possibly other states in the future) you can't form a government without either the Left or the AfD. Obviously, Günther prefers the Left out of these options to break the gridlock. He's probably the most liberal of the CDU moderates these days. (It's for that reason that he probably hasn't much of a shot at the CDU chairmanship/Chancellor-candidacy too. In all likelihood, Merkel's successsor won't come from the left of Merkel.)

[rob in cal]

   Any developments, and any sense of when the new leader will be elected? I would think sooner rather than the summer that AKK proposed just to get the ball rolling on this ASAP.

[urutzizu]

^
-Merz will run, according to corroborating reports from media sources. No surprise there.
-Spahn is a maybe, says he is ready to "take responsibility, as always". Vague, as always.
-Laschet, total silence until now. He would likely win were he to run, as others have pointed out. But MP of NRW is not exactly a bad job to have, while leading the CDU *right now* is ... well, not easy.
-Söder is a no. "My location and anchor are in Bavaria, and I shall keep my word with the Bavarian voters." He is popularin Bravaria and nationally, and has enough Power for himself as is right now. (and anyway, he could only become Chancellor-Candidate, not Chair of the CDU (as he is Bravarian). The media likes treating them as the same, and most likely they will, but they are distinct roles). His support will prove very important though, and he will be the first person AKK consults on possible successors this weekend at the MSC.

The election likely to take place under the current system (convention delegates), not a direct vote among members. After the gruelling contest in the SPD, there is not much appetite in the CDU (even among Merz) to go down that path.  
The timeline is unclear - according to dpa, there will likely be sometime in May or June a special party convention to decide the CDU chair and the Chancellor-candidate. The regular December convention will remain in place.

Arguably the recent events vindicate those, like Merkel, who were from the start for the principle of indivisibility of the Party Chair and position of Chancellor. It seems unlikely however that once the new leader is elected that Merkel will be replaced by them before the end of her term. The SPD has threatened to end the coalition in such case anyway.  

A opinion poll from RTL/ntv (I usually take these with a grain of salt, especially this early in the race):
Merz     (27%; Among CDU voters: 35%)
Laschet (18%; 19%)
Söder    (11%; 16%)
Spahn   (8%;  7%)
None     (36%; 23%)

More interesting results here: https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Merz-hat-beste-Aussichten-als-Kandidat-article21567356.html use google translate gn

[Middle-aged Europe]

As a first step, AKK is essentially planning to conduct separate "job interviews" with Laschet, Merz, and Spahn to determine their respective intentions. I guess the precise number of candidates running will determine how to proceed.

One thing that could perhaps stop Merz (or not make him a good CDU chairman if it comes to that) is his reputation of being too egoistical and not a very good team player. For instance, when he  failed to win the party chairmanship in 2018 the CDU basically begged him to take up another position, for instance one of the five deputy chairmen or at least a seat on the CDU's executive board. At that point it became clear that he will only return to politics if he gets a definite shot at the top job. He wants to be Chancellor and CDU chairmanship is a guarenteed stepping stone towards that goal. He's not interested in anything below that.

Laschet on the other hand appears to have a fundamentlly different approach. Unlike Merz and Spahn, he refused to make any public comments on his political future during the last couple of years. He's hedging his bets, perhaps trying to organize support for a bid behind the scenes. Only today he happened to appear in the headlines by making a pledge that he will "never" cooperate with the AfD in any form.

[President Johnson]

I think Laschet can stop Merz since he's in control of NRW state party, which has by far the most delegates. Merz is also from NRW and would need strong support from eastern state parties to stand a chance if there is a contested convention like in 2018.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Sorry but calling for a new election from South Africa (that's where she was at the moment) before AKK as nominal CDU chair is unheard of.

I know where she was. And no, Merkel was in this case just reacting to previous statements made by Söder, Lindner, and friends.

Every political commentator from Sueddeutsche (pro-SPD) to FAZ(conservative pro-CDU)  and Handelsblatt (Merkel's mouthpiece) sees it the same way:

Sorry, but the claim that "every political commentator sees it the same way" is as wrong as the one that the Süddeutsche is pro-SPD. It is nothing of that sort. If anything, its editorial stance has been vaguely supportive of my own party (Greens) in recent times. But even this doesn't necessarily apply to individual opinion writers of course.

By taking a leading role again, she dismantled AKK. Leading decisively is the most important qualitiy a leading politician has to prove. If not, bye bye, Felicia (or in this case, AKK).

She's the Chancellor. She was supposed to intervene at some point, especially since the whole Thuringia affair had an impact of Germany's image abroad. In any case, Merkel had no reason to dismantle or weaken AKK in any way.  

It is quite naive to expect Mrs Merkel issue a statement like this by chance.

Not by chance but because she didn't have any choice but to say something.

And have you ever heard of the autonomy of the local CDU branches? OK, this subsidiarity principle is quite hollow, and at least played to the outside.  
This breach of principle has damaged the CDU further. I do not like the AfD at all. Now they can repeat the mantra of the de-facto non-existent "left dictatorship" in Germany.

Come on, the AfD is repeating this nonsense since 2015 now. The Chancellor does something they don't like and these people shout "Dictatorship!!!" - it really doesn't matter at this point anymore. These people are mentally incapable of understanding the basic tenets of Germany's constitutional order, which allows Merkel to demand whatever she wants. As long as she doesn't formally intervene into state affairs, everything is fine.

And to quote FDR: "In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way." Mr Hirte was sacked by Mrs Merkel without any warning. Usually, this is a topic for the CDU presidium, where the political position are dealt with(political proportion like x women, y men, and z number of Eastern Germans etc.).

Of course, things do happen by accident. More than 50% of politics is based on a seemingly endless series of accidents, miscalculations, suddenly emerging opportunity structures etc.

Yet in this case, as I said before, there were already calls to sack Hirte in the past. And the Chancellor has definitely the right to decide who should serve in her government and who shouldn't. This is her decision to make and her decision alone.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AKK is planning to propose a successor for herself on February 24.

[Astatine]

AKK is planning to propose a successor for herself on February 24.

Michael Kretschmer was misquoted. She will just announce how the new leader will be elected, not whom she proposes.

[Flyersfan232]

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?

This is quite unlikely. Although she appears to have been the one who staged the disposal of AKK:
- Her now infamous claim of a new election in Thuringia (without any constitutional right to do so) was the first call for this, and immediately the CDU presidium took over this position
- She fired Mr Hirte, a confidant of Mr Mohring
- AKK famously unable to convince the only persons with a right to order new elections, the CDU Thuringia caucus
- The joint meeting of the coalition also ordered a new election and that the federal CDU had to take over this position, despite no right what ever to reign into intraparty affairs

To me, the most likely new CDU chairperson will be PM Armin Laschet of NRW. Mrs Merkel hat about 40 % of the party officials at her command, as the election of AKK has shown. With support of the JU and 100 % of the CDU NRW delegates, this would suffice.

Mr Merz has no natural constituency. There may be a puppet candidate (like Mr Spahn) to siphon away some potential support from him and command it to the Merkelista side. Plus his main assets like the CDU East Germany(to be clear: the non ancien régime parts, these are the core supporters of Mrs Merkel, please remember that Mr Mohring et al are stemming from integrated former indenpendent parties which were the true drivers of the Revolution of 1989 like Demokratischer Aufbruch, Neues Forum and Deutsche Soziale Union) are now burnt toast.

Mertz is the best hope for the cdu he can win back some add voters

[Pick Up the Phone]

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?

This is quite unlikely. Although she appears to have been the one who staged the disposal of AKK:
- Her now infamous claim of a new election in Thuringia (without any constitutional right to do so) was the first call for this, and immediately the CDU presidium took over this position
- She fired Mr Hirte, a confidant of Mr Mohring
- AKK famously unable to convince the only persons with a right to order new elections, the CDU Thuringia caucus
- The joint meeting of the coalition also ordered a new election and that the federal CDU had to take over this position, despite no right what ever to reign into intraparty affairs

To me, the most likely new CDU chairperson will be PM Armin Laschet of NRW. Mrs Merkel hat about 40 % of the party officials at her command, as the election of AKK has shown. With support of the JU and 100 % of the CDU NRW delegates, this would suffice.

Mr Merz has no natural constituency. There may be a puppet candidate (like Mr Spahn) to siphon away some potential support from him and command it to the Merkelista side. Plus his main assets like the CDU East Germany(to be clear: the non ancien régime parts, these are the core supporters of Mrs Merkel, please remember that Mr Mohring et al are stemming from integrated former indenpendent parties which were the true drivers of the Revolution of 1989 like Demokratischer Aufbruch, Neues Forum and Deutsche Soziale Union) are now burnt toast.

Mertz is the best hope for the cdu he can win back some add voters

No, not necessarily. He might win back a few FDP voters (possibly pushing the party below the threshold) and mobilize a specific anti-Merkel segment within the CDU. Sure. But his selection would also create significant backlash and the center-left would have an easy time to depict Merz as a neoliberal Heuschrecke who must be stopped at all cost.

There is a reason why many SPD politicians secretly root for Merz and call him a "gift of God". Laschet would be considered far more dangerous.

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^ Yes, Friedrich Merz being a neoliberal globalist with strong ties to BlackRock, Inc. probably means that his potential appeal to populist AfD voters may be limited.

Merz is more of an old school pro-business, pro-small government, pro-tax cuts, pro-free trade conservative, sort of a cross between being Germany's belated answer to Reagan/Thatcher and a Macron on steroids. He's also not particularly known for being an "anti-immigration" politician although he may certainly be willing to insitute more restrictive refugee policies than Merkel in an effort solidify the support he receives from the CDU's conservatives.

[Tender Branson]

Merz is the Bernie Sanders of the CDU.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Ugh really... You name my three most disliked politicians of the last 30 years, and a mix of that is going to be Merz. Really, total opposite of what i am.