2020 CDU Leadership Contest

[Middle-aged Europe]

Both Laschet and Spahn have proposed a "team solution"... whatever that means, since this doesn't seem to refer to three co-equal party chairs. So in the end there will still be one leader. In any case, there seems to be growing support within the CDU to find some form of consensus agreement instead of an open contest.

If recent statements by CSU chairman Markus Söder and CDU/CSU Bundestag caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus are any indication, Merz' chances are in a bit of a decline. Yesterday, Söder strongly implied in a TV appearance that he considers Merz to be out of touch due to his 15-year absence from active politics and also a loose cannon who speaks before he thinks (case in point: Merz had to apologize to the AfD's voters last week after he called that party "Gesindel"... this term seem to have many possible translations into English which range from "rifraff" to "vermin"). A couple of days earlier, Brinkhaus urged Merz to show greater team spirit and that "to assume responsibility" for the CDU could also mean that one takes over only the second- or third-most important position.

[President Johnson]

This "team solution" thing is kind of weird. I don't know why all of a sudden politicians feel this is such a great idea. What's next? Two heads of government serving as "co-chancellor"?

I think Söder himself would actually be a stronger candidate than people think. He might be able to win back some conservative voters due to CSU's more hardline immigration stance, while he started to open the door to Greens. His administration in Bavaria has pursued a lot of environmental policies since he took office, what generally raised my opinion of him. He makes a more mature impression now than at the time he served as Bavarian finance minister. Söder also has some "youth factor", but has practical governing experience (even though state level is vastly different from Berlin).

[Pick Up the Phone]

This "team solution" thing is kind of weird. I don't know why all of a sudden politicians feel this is such a great idea. What's next? Two heads of government serving as "co-chancellor"?

I think Söder himself would actually be a stronger candidate than people think. He might be able to win back some conservative voters due to CSU's more hardline immigration stance, while he started to open the door to Greens. His administration in Bavaria has pursued a lot of environmental policies since he took office, what generally raised my opinion of him. He makes a more mature impression now than at the time he served as Bavarian finance minister. Söder also has some "youth factor", but has practical governing experience (even though state level is vastly different from Berlin).

The point with Söder (of whose development I'm also positively surprised) is that he has plenty of time and no pressure. There's hardly an incentive for him to leave Bavaria and risk the end of his political career at Age 53. His current position is safe enough and he can afford to wait for more stable times.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

[Astatine]

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

He is responsible for the worst showing of CDU in the history of NRW, so if elected, we might see a repeat of that on federal level.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

He is responsible for the worst showing of CDU in the history of NRW, so if elected, we might see a repeat of that on federal level.

First and foremost, Röttgen is another "I've got a score to settle with Merkel" candidacy similar to Merz' candidacy. In 2012, he was fired (and that literally means fired because he had refused to resign) by Merkel as environment minister and scuttblebutt is that he never got over it.

[Astatine]

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

He is responsible for the worst showing of CDU in the history of NRW, so if elected, we might see a repeat of that on federal level.

First and foremost, Röttgen is another "I've got a score to settle with Merkel" candidacy similar to Merz' candidacy. In 2012, he was fired (and that literally means fired because he had refused to resign) by Merkel as environment minister and scuttblebutt is that he never got over it.

Would not be too surprised if we ended up with incoming candidacies of Roland Koch, Christian Wulff, Günther Oettinger and Jürgen Rüttgers.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

He is responsible for the worst showing of CDU in the history of NRW, so if elected, we might see a repeat of that on federal level.

First and foremost, Röttgen is another "I've got a score to settle with Merkel" candidacy similar to Merz' candidacy. In 2012, he was fired (and that literally means fired because he had refused to resign) by Merkel as environment minister and scuttblebutt is that he never got over it.

Would not be too surprised if we ended up with incoming candidacies of Roland Koch, Christian Wulff, Günther Oettinger and Jürgen Rüttgers.

Let's not forget good ol' Wolfgang Bosbach!

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Röttgen won't go anywhere. I will never forget how Merkel fired the guy in public literally the day after his disastrous defeat in the 2012 state election. She went before the cameras and said plain and simple (not an exact quote): "Ich habe den Herrn Bundespräsidenten gebeten den Bundesminister für Umwelt und Reaktorsicherheit gemäß Artikel 64 des Grundgesetzes mit sofortiger Wirkung von seinen Aufgaben zu entbinden" ("I have urged the federal president to relieve the federal minister of environment and nuclear safety from his duties immediately in accordance with article 64 of the basic law").

[urutzizu]

The english-language media, has a tendency to bring him on to comment on Issues like Brexit, China, Turkey, Russia, Trump, whatever with a nauseating frequency, because he is someone who will literally go on *any* program, being thirsty for attention since his humiliation.

Which is problematic because they present him as "a HiGh RaNkInG iNfLuEnTiAl FiGuRe In cHaNCeLlOr MeRkElS pArTy" (or along those lines), which he like, is absolutely not, and his attention-seeking comments often in no way reflect the stance of the German Government whatsoever, which misleads non-German readers/viewers. Anyone who actually takes CNN at face value is a lost cause anyway, so whatever. But its disappointing for the Guardian et. al. to do it too.

[Former President tack50]

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

-What would have happened if Merkel had never been chancellor? (Say, red-red-green is formed in 2005 and Merkel ousted not too long after for blowing the election). I imagine CDU still wins 2009, but what beyond that? Does AfD still rise?

[CumbrianLefty]

There was a certain amount of weariness with Merkel developing before she made her announcement of a delayed handover - indeed, that's a significant reason why it *was* made. This reminds me a bit of the fanatical Blairites who insist "if only Tony had stayed on as PM, he would still be there now".

Erm......

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

Merkel is seen by some in the CDU as the reason why the party lost votes in recent years. The CDU/CSU is currently far below their historical average at 26%-28%. If she'd run again she might become the longest-serving post-WWII Chancellor (and the second-longest overall after Bismarck) and it is already the case that talk about "the forever Chancellor" and "Merkel fatigue" makes the round. But maybe it is for that reason there's also a chance she might lose this time around.

-What would have happened if Merkel had never been chancellor? (Say, red-red-green is formed in 2005 and Merkel ousted not too long after for blowing the election). I imagine CDU still wins 2009, but what beyond that? Does AfD still rise?

Who knows... We could have ended up with Chancellor Roland Koch in 2009.

The AfD was - in essence - originally formed as a responce to the financial crisis in Greece so that wouldn't really change although the party might have developed into a different direction.

[republicanbayer]

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

Merkel is seen by some in the CDU as the reason why the party lost votes in recent years. The CDU/CSU is currently far below their historical average at 26%-28%. If she'd run again she might become the longest-serving post-WWII Chancellor (and the second-longest overall after Bismarck) and it is already the case that talk about "the forever Chancellor" and "Merkel fatigue" makes the round. But maybe it is for that reason there's also a chance she might lose this time around.

-What would have happened if Merkel had never been chancellor? (Say, red-red-green is formed in 2005 and Merkel ousted not too long after for blowing the election). I imagine CDU still wins 2009, but what beyond that? Does AfD still rise?

Who knows... We could have ended up with Chancellor Roland Koch in 2009.

The AfD was - in essence - originally formed as a responce to the financial crisis in Greece so that wouldn't really change although the party might have developed into a different direction.

Then again, the AfD was all but dead after Lucke and others left the party in 2015. They were polling at 3% and they'd be sharing the fate of the Pirate Party if not for the refugee crisis. And I don't see anyone but Merkel letting in one million refugees within a few months, certainly not Koch or Wulff, probably not even a SPD-Chancellor.

[Pick Up the Phone]

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

Merkel is seen by some in the CDU as the reason why the party lost votes in recent years. The CDU/CSU is currently far below their historical average at 26%-28%. If she'd run again she might become the longest-serving post-WWII Chancellor (and the second-longest overall after Bismarck) and it is already the case that talk about "the forever Chancellor" and "Merkel fatigue" makes the round. But maybe it is for that reason there's also a chance she might lose this time around.

Merkel doesn't have to care what a few CDU backbenchers think of her. She still one of the most popular politicians in Germany and if she were to run again in 2021 (and even in 2025), no other CDU candidate could realistically stop her.

However, to answer the question, she simply doesn't want to run again. Perhaps because she is exhausted by politics, perhaps because she's already feeling the signs of getting old, perhaps because she wants to get a position elsewhere (UN/EU/NATO...).

She never really explained it in detail, but only announced the following back in 2018:

"This will be my last term as Chancellor of Germany (...) I once said that I wasn't born as Chancellor and that is something, I have never forgotten. I strongly feel that the time has come to open a new chapter."

[republicanbayer]

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

Merkel is seen by some in the CDU as the reason why the party lost votes in recent years. The CDU/CSU is currently far below their historical average at 26%-28%. If she'd run again she might become the longest-serving post-WWII Chancellor (and the second-longest overall after Bismarck) and it is already the case that talk about "the forever Chancellor" and "Merkel fatigue" makes the round. But maybe it is for that reason there's also a chance she might lose this time around.

Merkel doesn't have to care what a few CDU backbenchers think of her. She still one of the most popular politicians in Germany and if she were to run again in 2021 (and even in 2025), no other CDU candidate could realistically stop her.

However, to answer the question, she simply doesn't want to run again. Perhaps because she is exhausted by politics, perhaps because she's already feeling the signs of getting old, perhaps because she wants to get a position elsewhere (UN/EU/NATO...).

She never really explained it in detail, but only announced the following back in 2018:

"This will be my last term as Chancellor of Germany (...) I once said that I wasn't born as Chancellor and that is something, I have never forgotten. I strongly feel that the time has come to open a new chapter."

She resigned as party leader after suffering double digit losses in two consecutive state elections with intra-party discontent about her at an all-time-high. She knew that announcing this would be her last term would prevent any coup against her and she's smart to enough to remember Helmut Kohl getting voted out of office after four terms. The only reason she's not facing pressure to quit (and the unpopularity that comes along with this pressure) is because she has already announced that she will retire.

[Pick Up the Phone]

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

Merkel is seen by some in the CDU as the reason why the party lost votes in recent years. The CDU/CSU is currently far below their historical average at 26%-28%. If she'd run again she might become the longest-serving post-WWII Chancellor (and the second-longest overall after Bismarck) and it is already the case that talk about "the forever Chancellor" and "Merkel fatigue" makes the round. But maybe it is for that reason there's also a chance she might lose this time around.

Merkel doesn't have to care what a few CDU backbenchers think of her. She still one of the most popular politicians in Germany and if she were to run again in 2021 (and even in 2025), no other CDU candidate could realistically stop her.

However, to answer the question, she simply doesn't want to run again. Perhaps because she is exhausted by politics, perhaps because she's already feeling the signs of getting old, perhaps because she wants to get a position elsewhere (UN/EU/NATO...).

She never really explained it in detail, but only announced the following back in 2018:

"This will be my last term as Chancellor of Germany (...) I once said that I wasn't born as Chancellor and that is something, I have never forgotten. I strongly feel that the time has come to open a new chapter."

She resigned as party leader after suffering double digit losses in two consecutive state elections with intra-party discontent about her at an all-time-high. She knew that announcing this would be her last term would prevent any coup against her and she's smart to enough to remember Helmut Kohl getting voted out of office after four terms. The only reason she's not facing pressure to quit (and the unpopularity that comes along with this pressure) is because she has already announced that she will retire.

Double digit losses in consecutive state elections? Who cares, this has happened many times during her chancellorship. It also happened during the chancellorships of Schröder and Kohl by the way. "Intra-party discontent" at an all-time high? Not really. Do you remember the situation in 2011/2012 when the CDU lost Baden-Württemberg to Kretschmann/Schmid and failed to take back North Rhine-Westphalia from Kraft/Löhrmann? Not to mention the intra-party critics who attacked her over the Grand coalition's handling of the Euro crisis. Or the backlash after Fukushima and the Energiewende etc.

I also don't think that comparing her to Kohl works. Kohl was extremely unpopular during his last years in office (he trailed Schröder by several points and appeared as frustrated and helpless throughout the 1998 campaign), whereas Merkel is still extraordinarily popular and one of the main reasons why the CDU polls above 25%. 

[TheSaint250]

What are the expectations for the contest as it shakes out?

[Middle-aged Europe]

What are the expectations for the contest as it shakes out?

Laschet, Merz, Spahn, and Röttgen either already had or will have soon meetings with AKK. Afterwards, she's planning to propose a specific procesure on how to elect her successor. Röttgen's surprise candidcacy has made some form of open contest as opposed to the consensus team solution much more likely. Laschet and Merz are still seen as the frontrunners, although it also depends on the precise procedure (primary election vs. party convention only).

[Flyersfan232]

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

Merkel is seen by some in the CDU as the reason why the party lost votes in recent years. The CDU/CSU is currently far below their historical average at 26%-28%. If she'd run again she might become the longest-serving post-WWII Chancellor (and the second-longest overall after Bismarck) and it is already the case that talk about "the forever Chancellor" and "Merkel fatigue" makes the round. But maybe it is for that reason there's also a chance she might lose this time around.

-What would have happened if Merkel had never been chancellor? (Say, red-red-green is formed in 2005 and Merkel ousted not too long after for blowing the election). I imagine CDU still wins 2009, but what beyond that? Does AfD still rise?

Who knows... We could have ended up with Chancellor Roland Koch in 2009.

The AfD was - in essence - originally formed as a responce to the financial crisis in Greece so that wouldn't really change although the party might have developed into a different direction.

Then again, the AfD was all but dead after Lucke and others left the party in 2015. They were polling at 3% and they'd be sharing the fate of the Pirate Party if not for the refugee crisis. And I don't see anyone but Merkel letting in one million refugees within a few months, certainly not Koch or Wulff, probably not even a SPD-Chancellor.

what is the afd floor now days 6 or 7?

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU is apparently planning to hold a party convention in late April or early May to elect a new chairman.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Update: The next CDU chairman will be elected at a party convention on April 25.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Merz announcement is pending for tomorrow.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Plot twist:

Armin Laschet is running for the CDU charmainship. Jens Spahn endorses Laschet and runs for deputy. A move that probably solidifies Laschet's frontrunner status.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Norbert Röttgen counters the Laschet/Merz joint ticket by announcing that he will form a team with "a woman".

That's is a pretty nonsensical statement to make because:

- He doesn't say which woman, any woman will apparently do.

- The CDU has five deputy chairs, two of which are at the moment women and irrespective of who Röttgen designates as his "woman deputy" this probably wouldn't change anyway.

- With that in mind it would have made more much more sense for Röttgen to say that at least three of the five deputy chairs should be held by women in order to reach complete gender parity among the six chair/deputy chair positions. But the way he framed it now there will be Röttgen's personal woman deputy and the other female deputy chairs would be "normal" deputy chairs or something.


Schleswig-Holstein's liberal CDU minister-president Daniel Günther was quick to endorse the Laschet/Spahn ticket and also urged Friedrich Merz to integrate himself into that team, implying that Merz should drop his chairmanship candidacy.