2020 CDU Leadership Contest

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

I just wanted to explain the sarcasm to everyone who isn't familiar with German politics.
A way more important and critical question is: Who will succeed Söder to his throne as Bavarian despot Governor?
Answers here, please!

[njwes]

I'm not sure exactly how to phrase this question, but: if Laschet is around where Merkel is (or even very slightly to the left, which is what a lot of the sources sources I've looked at have said), what is the point of CDU? Just a nearly non-ideological, sort-of party of power? Wouldn't this be highly frustrating for any voter who's even a bit self-consciously conservative?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Deputies now elected as well. Results are a serious blowback for Health Minister Jens Spahn. He received by far the fewest votes of them, just 589. Volker Bouffier got 806, Julia Klöckner 787, Silvia Breher 777 and Thomas Strobl 670 votes. Maybe a sign the CDU doesn't want him to be chancellor candidate. I certainly hope so. Laschet is much better.

I'm wondering if Spahn's backlash can also be construed as a hint from Armin's supporters - considering that the Corona Minister is his "adlatus" - that they actually prefer Söder as their chancellor candidate?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm not sure exactly how to phrase this classroom, but: if Laschet is around where Merkel is (or even very slightly to the left, which is what a lot of the sources sources I've looked at so sad), what is the point of CDU? Just a nearly non-ideological, sort-of party of power? Wouldn't this be highly frustrating for any voter who's even a bit self-consciously conservative?

CDU has been in power for 16 years and is currently polling at 36%, leading the second-strongest party by at least 15 points. A generic centrist party certainly has a wide appeal, especially for moderate, more apolitical, or swing voters. This may suck for staunch conservatives, but at the end of the day it just isn't Merkel's or Lachet's electoral strategy. Merkel/Laschet are going for the SPD/Green vote, not the AfD vote. With Merz it would have been the opposite which is why I know leftists who in fact wouldn't have been too unhappy about Merz winning: It would have left the center wide open to be harvested by SPD and Greens again. But now we're probably stuck with the CDU for at least the next decade.

But, as his losses against both AKK and Laschet have also shown, Merz probably has a ceiling. He undoubtedly has a strong fanbase among CDU conservatives but it just isn't enough to win the party chairmanship. Merz' downsides are probably that:
a) he's seen as past his prime and too long out of circulation (he was once considered a potential Chancellor-candidate for the 2005 election and he also hasn't held an elected office for 12 years now) and
b) he's seen as a right-wing gaffe machine, too controversial, and having become out of touch with the country (he has the habit of making statements which sound like coming from a CDU conservative from around the year 2000 - which Merz in fact is, but society has moved on since then). Jens Spahn or Markus Söder for instance are regarded as examples for more "modern" conservatives.

[Pick Up the Phone]

As expected. The final result was perhaps a little closer than I had thought but well...

And a centrist Laschet CDU has a lot of appeal. Just like the centrist Merkel CDU did. In Germany, elections are typically won by appealing to the center and not by rallying die-hard party zealots. The CDU is in an excellent position right now.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Merz was called on to run fair the Chair board, but declined (just as in 2018). He already received much criticism for declining to work within the leadership circle in 2018, so I'd say that this will not really help him (although there's not much more of a career left for him). The opposite can be said for Röttgen.

Selfless Merz refused the offer for a seat in the party executive committee because he would have prevented a woman from occupying that post. Isn't he altruistic?

Friedrich Merz has - as altruistic as he is - instead proposed himself to his newly-elected party chairman as a potential applicant for the Ministry of Economy, currently held by Merkel's "adlatus" Peter Altmaier; but his deadly foe Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, instantly declined his selfless devotion, stating she doesn't intend reshuffling her cabinet...

[President Johnson]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

Röttgen would actually be an excellent foreign minister. Better than Maas. I can't believe I'm saying this, given my party membership.

[Astatine]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

Röttgen would actually be an excellent foreign minister. Better than Maas. I can't believe I'm saying this, given my party membership.

All of my fellow Saarländer Cabinet members are mediocre at best.

Imho: AKK > Maas > Altmaier imho (for minister performance only)

[Blair]

I'm not sure exactly how to phrase this classroom, but: if Laschet is around where Merkel is (or even very slightly to the left, which is what a lot of the sources sources I've looked at so sad), what is the point of CDU? Just a nearly non-ideological, sort-of party of power? Wouldn't this be highly frustrating for any voter who's even a bit self-consciously conservative?

The CDU is a lot of things, but it's incorrect to think that it's non-ideological. There is a clear ideology; it's just not the same flavour of conservatism that we see in (to say the dreaded word) the Anglo-Saxon world.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

Röttgen would actually be an excellent foreign minister. Better than Maas. I can't believe I'm saying this, given my party membership.

All of my fellow Saarländer Cabinet members are mediocre at best.

Imho: AKK > Maas > Altmaier imho (for minister performance only)

You think so? Altmaier seems to do a pretty solid job... at least that's what I hear from within the Berlin bubble. Maas, well, he didn't do much wrong either. But he obviously has an image problem.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm not sure exactly how to phrase this classroom, but: if Laschet is around where Merkel is (or even very slightly to the left, which is what a lot of the sources sources I've looked at so sad), what is the point of CDU? Just a nearly non-ideological, sort-of party of power? Wouldn't this be highly frustrating for any voter who's even a bit self-consciously conservative?

snip

I'm not German, so I'm not going to talk about anything candidate or ideology specific. However, I do think it is important to mention the Union's perceived electoral situation, cause that also explains why someone who might disagree with some of their policies still happily votes CxU.

A - Tradition. Simply put, the Union has a long-lasting brand in Western Germany as the electoral vehicle of Conservatives. There are always a lot of people who have been voting for a large party for most of their life, and loyalty is something hard to break once built. Contrast this to the East where the voting population is comparatively newer to German politics. The fundamental differences have led to people expecting something different from their Conservative party than the Union is offering - as seen by other Eastern European parties of significant size that align with their nation's political Right.
B - If it ain't broken don't fix it. Merkel has led the Union for most of the 21st Century at this point, and I can't point to any major thing that her govt has bungled. The crises that emerged were all navigated in a calculated manner that may not have been the best approach, but ones that had little chance of blowback in Germany. In this regard, there will always be incumbency voters, no matter the Democracy. If the govt has been in power for long enough the reflexive desire to see change for the sake of change is replaced by one to maintain the present govt, since the unknown may be worse than the known.
C - Who else can? If you are walking into a polling place this year, and your identity aligns with the German Right, most of your consideration will go to the Union, AfD, and FDP. The issue now is whether you should vote for the party that may not peruse all of the policies you prefer, but will pursue some and be in govt, or the party that will just harass the former from the sidelines. Spoiler, most people are not ideologues and married a dozens of a parties proposals. The silent majority of those less-caring about politics if you will. The minority that have committed their party or its platform to their identity are the activists. They tend to block out the former though because devotees have the urge to post on social media or chatrooms, speak in the press, rally or protest, donate to auxiliary organizations, and maybe even join a youth wing or organizational group. A good chunk of those who care less about ideologies and the political game will check the box of the bigger party, since that is the one with the best opportunity to legislate on their behalf.

Many of these same rules preserve Parties of Power around the globe, no matter their specific proposals or leadership. See Likud, the Swedish Social Democrats, the LDP, and a few others.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

Röttgen would actually be an excellent foreign minister. Better than Maas. I can't believe I'm saying this, given my party membership.

Röttgen clearly hopes to become FM in a centrist CDU-GRÜNE coalition. But so does Cem Özdemir and maybe even Annalena Baerbock. Given that the junior coalition partner usually gets the office (since 1966 at least), I don't see much of a chance for him. But perhaps Economic Cooperation/Development, which would be a nice consolation prize.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Important not to confuse Merkel - who genuinely has no ideology other than to serve the State; though that is an ideology of a sort! - with the entire CDU-CSU, which is a genuine conservative party, particularly at a grassroots level. But none of the various German parties are particularly ideological compared to most countries, which is exactly how the electorate likes things - and quite understandably given that whole 'twentieth century' business.

[palandio]

[...]
And a centrist Laschet CDU has a lot of appeal. Just like the centrist Merkel CDU did. In Germany, elections are typically won by appealing to the center and not by rallying die-hard party zealots. The CDU is in an excellent position right now.

Elections are won in the center (never forget that this center is politically and socially quite diverse), but sometimes they can be lost at the margins or by losing voters to abstention.

One important question is of course what winning means. Occupying the pivotal spot in the center of the spectrum with 34% can be more attractive than winning 38% but with a coherent adversarial bloc winning a majority.

[Pick Up the Phone]

One important question is of course what winning means. Occupying the pivotal spot in the center of the spectrum with 34% can be more attractive than winning 38% but with a coherent adversarial bloc winning a majority.

Right, this is the point. Winning in the sense of staying in power is something completely different than getting as many votes as possible. That's why, to give a notable example, the emergence of the AfD has been a blessing in disguise for the CDU. It may have costed them a couple of voters but it also solidified a situation in which (a) the CDU remains the strongest party and (b) no coalition can be formed without it. Hence "excellent position".

[President Johnson]

Merz was called on to run fair the Chair board, but declined (just as in 2018). He already received much criticism for declining to work within the leadership circle in 2018, so I'd say that this will not really help him (although there's not much more of a career left for him). The opposite can be said for Röttgen.

Selfless Merz refused the offer for a seat in the party executive committee because he would have prevented a woman from occupying that post. Isn't he altruistic?

Friedrich Merz has - as altruistic as he is - instead proposed himself to his newly-elected party chairman as a potential applicant for the Ministry of Economy, currently held by Merkel's "adlatus" Peter Altmaier; but his deadly foe Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, instantly declined his selfless devotion, stating she doesn't intend reshuffling her cabinet...

This was one of the dumbest moves by Merz. However, he revealed his true colors and that not electing him leader was the correct decision. I hope he goes back to Black Rock, where "Mr. Upper Middle Class" belongs.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Armin Laschet has now officially been declared the winner of the chairmanship election.

In the vote-by-mail ballot, which has been additionally executed on legal grounds, he received 796 (83.35%) out of 980 votes from the same 1,001 delegates as the ones at the digital convention.
Note that only Laschet himself was granted ballot access.

[Tender Branson]

Armin Laschet has now officially been declared the winner of the chairmanship election.

In the vote-by-mail ballot, which has been additionally executed on legal grounds, he received 796 (83.35%) out of 980 votes from the same 1,001 delegates as the ones at the digital convention.
Note that only Laschet himself was granted ballot access.

A bit underwhelming, no ?

Party leaders usually get 90%+ in convention votes ...