2020 CDU Leadership Contest

[Alcibiades]

Interesting that Söder is considered by many as the strongest possible Kanzlerkandidat. I was under the impression that CSU members were viewed as weak candidates on the national scale, coming across as too extreme and regionalist, tying in with the perception of Bavarian politics as being too separated from the rest of the country. Early on in his tenure as Minister-President, he was mostly making headlines for his push for “values”, e.g. the cross law, but I suppose his reputation has improved since then.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Interesting that Söder is considered by many as the strongest possible Kanzlerkandidat. I was under the impression that CSU members were viewed as weak candidates on the national scale, coming across as too extreme and regionalist, tying in with the perception of Bavarian politics as being too separated from the rest of the country. Early on in his tenure as Minister-President, he was mostly making headlines for his push for “values”, e.g. the cross law, but I suppose his reputation has improved since then.

Well, only two CSU politicians were Kanzlerkandidaten in the past. And indeed, they were either considered too extreme (Franz Josef Strauß in 1980) or too regionalist (Edmund Stoiber in 2002). So the assumption is not entirely unfounded.

But you're absolutely right with your last sentence. Not too long ago, people thought of Söder as a conservative hardliner but this image changed drastically since he was elected Minister-President. He smartly positioned himself against Horst Seehofer (who appeared increasingly clumsy and gaffe-prone), started to praise environmentalism and adopt some ecological positions, softened his stance on immigration, and tried to be perceived as statesmanlike. Of course, this would not have been enough under most circumstances. But then came COVID-19. For Söder, the pandemic was (and still is) an absolute godsend and probably an once-in-a-lifetime chance to reshape his national image.

Also, the risk for the CDU/CSU is pretty limited as they will win the election either way. And Merz (too much baggage), Laschet (too vanilla), Spahn (too young and ambitious) or Röttgen (Who?) have their own issues... so the competition is not exactly fierce. I have no doubt hat the clear favorite would have been Ursula von der Leyen, had she not moved to Brussels.

[vitoNova]

CDU is trash.

FDP is superior.

[Omega21]

Well, only two CSU politicians were Kanzlerkandidaten in the past. And indeed, they were either considered too extreme (Franz Josef Strauß in 1980) or too regionalist (Edmund Stoiber in 2002). So the assumption is not entirely unfounded.

But you're absolutely right with your last sentence. Not too long ago, people thought of Söder as a conservative hardliner but this image changed drastically since he was elected Minister-President. He smartly positioned himself against Horst Seehofer (who appeared increasingly clumsy and gaffe-prone), started to praise environmentalism and adopt some ecological positions, softened his stance on immigration, and tried to be perceived as statesmanlike. Of course, this would not have been enough under most circumstances. But then came COVID-19. For Söder, the pandemic was (and still is) an absolute godsend and probably an once-in-a-lifetime chance to reshape his national image.

Also, the risk for the CDU/CSU is pretty limited as they will win the election either way. And Merz (too much baggage), Laschet (too vanilla), Spahn (too young and ambitious) or Röttgen (Who?) have their own issues... so the competition is not exactly fierce. I have no doubt hat the clear favorite would have been Ursula von der Leyen, had she not moved to Brussels.

Didn't he actually get some support as a result of his skeptical/negative stance on Muttis "Wir schaffen das" open-door policy?

Maybe you meant legal immigration, but most people usually don't care that much about legal immigrants coming to fill high-skill or empty positions (truck drivers, welders, etc.)?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

https://apnews.com/ceea5a109ba1f7c157e18d77864d2427?utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter

Could you please add a poll to this topic? Preferably with a second question regarding if the new CDU chairman will also become the Union's chancellor candidate.

Something like that:

Code:

Who will succeed AKK to the CDU chair? (Will he also become the Union's chancellor candidate?)

Friedrich Merz (yes)
Friedrich Merz (no)
Armin Laschet (yes)
Armin Laschet (no)
Norbert Röttgen (yes)
Norbert Röttgen (no)

That would be very kind and considerate of you, hadn't you started this thread, I would love to have done it.

Note: It's a tradition, but no statutory or binding obligation that the Union's chancellor candidate has to be the CDU or CSU chair.

Aside from Governor Markus Söder, who has been staying tight-lipped about his political ambitions, Corona Minister Jens Spahn has put himself into play for the chancellorship.

The chair election is to take place on Saturday; the online convention itself will begin tomorrow; only the three candidates for the chair and the party executive committee are reported to be be present at the party convention hosted in Berlin.

The election is so exiting because there are only polls among voters and CDU members available; however not the party base will decide upon AKK's successor, but the 1,001 delegates. Thus, even the political pundits are absolutely not sure who will emerge victor (although they suppose Merz does have the edge over his competitors).

The Frauen-Union ("women's union"), a huge and very influential association within the CDU/CSU, which is said to have earned AKK her victory two years ago, have backed both Röttgen and Laschet, whereas Merz has been endorsed by the very conservative Junge Union ("young Union") and the neo-liberal Mittelstands-Union ("mid-tier union").

The latest poll among the voters (not the delegates) was conducted by infratest dimap on January 4/5, delivering the following results:

All voters:



CDU voters:




Here's also the poll about the favorability of the potential chancellor candidates of the Union parties (without Spahn, alas):

All voters:



CDU voters:



Bavarian Governor Söder has been hotly favored for the chancellorship for over a year now, but I'm not sure if he still is after his recent unbridled fit of restrictive, all-encompassing authoritarianism.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Well, only two CSU politicians were Kanzlerkandidaten in the past. And indeed, they were either considered too extreme (Franz Josef Strauß in 1980) or too regionalist (Edmund Stoiber in 2002). So the assumption is not entirely unfounded.

But you're absolutely right with your last sentence. Not too long ago, people thought of Söder as a conservative hardliner but this image changed drastically since he was elected Minister-President. He smartly positioned himself against Horst Seehofer (who appeared increasingly clumsy and gaffe-prone), started to praise environmentalism and adopt some ecological positions, softened his stance on immigration, and tried to be perceived as statesmanlike. Of course, this would not have been enough under most circumstances. But then came COVID-19. For Söder, the pandemic was (and still is) an absolute godsend and probably an once-in-a-lifetime chance to reshape his national image.

Also, the risk for the CDU/CSU is pretty limited as they will win the election either way. And Merz (too much baggage), Laschet (too vanilla), Spahn (too young and ambitious) or Röttgen (Who?) have their own issues... so the competition is not exactly fierce. I have no doubt hat the clear favorite would have been Ursula von der Leyen, had she not moved to Brussels.

Didn't he actually get some support as a result of his skeptical/negative stance on Muttis "Wir schaffen das" open-door policy?

Maybe you meant legal immigration, but most people usually don't care that much about legal immigrants coming to fill high-skill or empty positions (truck drivers, welders, etc.)?

No, I mean asylum seekers. He has considerably moderated his previous hardline positions on this issue, even though he is certainly no second Angela Merkel. To give just one example, he asked the federal government to take in 'substantially more refugees' from the Moria camp back in September:

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/migration-soeder-will-substanziell-mehr-migranten-aus-moria-aufnehmen-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-200914-99-550796

Legal immigration is a different ball game, especially when the target group consists of highly-skilled migrants etc. - not even the AfD is officially opposed to admitting them.

[Hnv1]

Söder will be the first chancellor of the CSU right?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Söder will be the first chancellor of the CSU right?

If he does ultimately succeed Merkel, yes.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Votes are being counted, but Röttgen is out, per our local radio.

[Astatine]

Merz: 385 votes
Laschet: 380 votes
Röttgen: 224 votes

Runoff is Lean/Likely Laschet I'd say.

[President Johnson]

Merz: 385 votes
Laschet: 380 votes
Röttgen: 224 votes

Runoff is Lean/Likely Laschet I'd say.

Yeah, Laschet is favored. Röttgen belongs to the centrist wing, like Laschet. I doubt most of his delegates will switch to Merz.

I just hope that Laschet is the chancellor candidate himself then, because he's superior to Söder and Spahn.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: LASCHET HAS WON!

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1350389749438099456

[Tender Branson]

Laschet just beat Merz by about 52.5-47.5 in the runoff.

I somehow expected this (after the Washington Capitol riot, I think delegates went with the safer, non-controversial choice).

[Astatine]

Laschet just beat Merz by about 52.5-47.5 in the runoff.

I somehow expected this (after the Washington Capitol riot, I think delegates went with the safer, non-controversial choice).

Lol, no, Merz has his own baggage and was never the clear favorite. He is an "old school conservative" in his style, no single delegate would associate Merz with Trump or anything that happened in DC. This take is almost olawakandesque.

[Tender Branson]

Laschet just beat Merz by about 52.5-47.5 in the runoff.

I somehow expected this (after the Washington Capitol riot, I think delegates went with the safer, non-controversial choice).

Lol, no, Merz has his own baggage and was never the clear favorite. He is an "old school conservative" in his style, no single delegate would associate Merz with Trump or anything that happened in DC. This take is almost olawakandesque.

Certainly not.

Merz was always seen as slightly Trumpesque and the Washington situation might have moved a few delegates to the Laschet side.

How many delegates is unclear, but certainly some.

[Hnv1]

So when is the Kanzlerkandidatwahl?

[Astatine]

Laschet just beat Merz by about 52.5-47.5 in the runoff.

I somehow expected this (after the Washington Capitol riot, I think delegates went with the safer, non-controversial choice).

Lol, no, Merz has his own baggage and was never the clear favorite. He is an "old school conservative" in his style, no single delegate would associate Merz with Trump or anything that happened in DC. This take is almost olawakandesque.

Certainly not.

Merz was always seen as slightly Trumpesque and the Washington situation might have moved a few delegates to the Laschet side.

How many delegates is unclear, but certainly some.

By whom?

If you take a look at some young left-wingers Twitter profiles, then likely yes. But this is the CDU, not Rose Twitter. When Politico - with their weird takes - brought exactly this comparison of Merz with Trump, Merz was defended by his own rivals. Ask any CDU members - if you know any - whether they agree that Merz could be seen as slightly Trumpesque. The answer will be no. Plus, CDU members simply don't care enough about the capitol riots to let that influence their vote. Pre-convention estimates had Merz ahead in the first round, with Laschet being behind and Röttgen as distant third. Laschet's and Röttgen's combined votes outnumbered Merz', who had a solid core but could hardly gain any new delegates beyond his circle of supporters.

Merz had his own problems in recent days, but not because of the capitol riots. His "Women for Merz"-campaign (since he struggled with female delegates and the Women Union endorsed Röttgen/Laschet) was considered a joke, his recent statement about a wealth tax as "envy tax" angered the social wing, a controversial statement about whether he could imagine a gay Chancellor gets occasionally cited, but no single CDU delegate considers this Trumpist in any ways or associates that with capitol riots.

I might just refer to some other replies that explain Merz' perception very well:

Laschet is still the favorite at the moment.

Who do you think is the favorite now?

Do you expect Röttgen and Laschet's supporters to back the other in the second round against Merz?  (I assume Merz is certain to make the run-off). Or do some Röttgen supporters prefer Merz to Laschet?

EDIT: I'd also be very interested in answers from other German posters.

Yes, I still think that Laschet is favored. He has plenty of establishment support and Merz hasn't done anything over the last couple of weeks to improve his position. If anything, COVID-19 may have convinced even more delegates that now is not the time for experiments but for steady leadership.

And that's what Merz would be by the way. An experiment - NOT an anti-establishment option as others have already remarked. I think this is not unimportant as the difference between Merkel and Merz is one of style rather than substance. Ideologically, they are probably closer to each other than... let's say Charlie Baker and Rob Portman to give an U.S. example. Even the term Reaganite seems a little exaggerated (although I see the point). In the end, almost all of Merz's supposed conservatism is confined to three points: (1) free market positions; (2) Transatlanticism; (3) empty nostalgic gestures. I mean... the man has turned from being hardcore conservative to accepting same-sex marriage and talking favorably about environmentalism and a possible CDU-Greens coalition. He would face the same realities and problems as Merkel and he is pragmatic enough to know when he needs to adapt.

Agree that most of the non-Merz vote will eventually converge. Will it be enough for Laschet or will more Röttgen voters go for Merz than Spahn voters did last time? Hard to say but I don't see any good reason to think that Merz should feel confident about it.

Why is Merz so heavily favored by the betting markets? Ignorance, too much emphasis on polls of the public or...?

Depending on the betting market and its participants there can be a lot of wishful thinking involved. Merz is certainly not a Trumpist but rather some kind of Reaganite who is popular with people that are nostalgic of a more ideologically pure CDU like it was in the opposition years (1998-2005). It's quite likely that more ideologically oriented people are more engaged in the betting markets in the first place.

[Tender Branson]

So when is the Kanzlerkandidatwahl?

Spring/Summer.

[President Johnson]

Deputies now elected as well. Results are a serious blowback for Health Minister Jens Spahn. He received by far the fewest votes of them, just 589. Volker Bouffier got 806, Julia Klöckner 787, Silvia Breher 777 and Thomas Strobl 670 votes. Maybe a sign the CDU doesn't want him to be chancellor candidate. I certainly hope so. Laschet is much better.

[CumbrianLefty]

So a victory (to admittedly simplify) for the CDU's "continuity Merkel" faction?

[Astatine]

Deputies now elected as well. Results are a serious blowback for Health Minister Jens Spahn. He received by far the fewest votes of them, just 589. Volker Bouffier got 806, Julia Klöckner 787, Silvia Breher 777 and Thomas Strobl 670 votes. Maybe a sign the CDU doesn't want him to be chancellor candidate. I certainly hope so. Laschet is much better.

Spahn angered many by abusing the candidate question time to encourage the delegates to vote for Laschet. Combined with some negative press coverage regarding problems of his vaccination policy, this could explain the poor performance.

[Astatine]

So, the whole inner circle of the party leadership seems complete now:

Leader:
Armin Laschet (replaces AKK)

General Secretary:
Paul Ziemiak

Deputy Leaders:
Jens Spahn (replaces Laschet)
Silvia Breher
Volker Bouffier
Thomas Strobl
Julia Klöckner

Chair board:
Bernd Althusmann
Monika Grütters
Reiner Haseloff (replaces the Master of Disaster of Thuringia, Mike Mohring)
Michael Kretschmer
Karl-Josef Laumann
Norbert Röttgen (replaces Spahn)
Annette Widmann-Mauz

Merz was called on to run fair the Chair board, but declined (just as in 2018). He already received much criticism for declining to work within the leadership circle in 2018, so I'd say that this will not really help him (although there's not much more of a career left for him). The opposite can be said for Röttgen.

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Laschet just beat Merz by about 52.5-47.5 in the runoff.

I somehow expected this (after the Washington Capitol riot, I think delegates went with the safer, non-controversial choice).

Lol, no, Merz has his own baggage and was never the clear favorite. He is an "old school conservative" in his style, no single delegate would associate Merz with Trump or anything that happened in DC. This take is almost olawakandesque.

Certainly not.

Merz was always seen as slightly Trumpesque and the Washington situation might have moved a few delegates to the Laschet side.

How many delegates is unclear, but certainly some.

The problem with Merz is that he gives a fugg about his own party. The only thing he wanted to become was chancellor candidate and consequently chancellor. To do so he had to grasp the nettle called party chair.

[Astatine]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).