New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anyone have any up-to-date turnout projections?

[Calthrina950]

Where does Bernie think he can expand his base when he is getting only 26% in home territory?

It seems like this primary is hurting all of the major candidates, while the candidates not on the Democratic ballot (Bloomberg and yes, Trump) are the beneficiaries.

I totally agree on Bloomberg, but I don’t see how this result helps Trump (unlike Iowa).

Iowa and New Hampshire in conjunction, have both turned out to be extremely fractious contests, with no clear frontrunner emerging. Trump, as you know, held a rally in New Hampshire on Monday. These contests provide him with the opportunity to point out the "divisions" of his Democratic opponents.

[Adam Griffin]

I've been wrong about Bernie being able to win the general. America isn't A Center-Right Country or wtfever, but the 2020 incarnation of him just isn't motivating people outside his base. (I still maintain that the 2016 version could have.)

His coalition doesn't look the same as it did 4 years ago, not to mention there are a ton of candidates still in the race. White and rural states benefited him 4 years ago because that was where his support was; this time around, it appears there are clear trends that diverge from that. More urban and more diverse states are likely to be better for him and compensate for these early underperformances.

It's no shrug in my opinion that Sanders is still going to win NH in the highest turnout primary in the state's history.

[jimrtex]

Reiterating my question about whether there is somewhere where we can see the results from the CDs ?

All candidates appear to be within 1% of their standing.

	Sanders	Buttigieg	Klobuchar	Warren	Biden
NH-1	26.3%	23.0%	19.6%	9.2%	9.4%
NH-2	27.3%	23.3%	20.0%	10.4%	7.5%
NH-AL	26.7%	23.1%	19.8%	9.7%	8.7%

[BP🌹]

These results are terrible for Sanders in terms of a general election. All the people who are not his base are basically voting against him. College educated whites - suburban voters are not voting for him. In the general that is a HUGE issue.

It tells us that they won't vote for Sanders against other Democratic candidates.

It does not tell us that they won't vote for Sanders against Trump.

[libertpaulian]

With these suburban results, I'm beginning to think that even VA might be a swing state this fall with Bernie at the top of the ticket.

[SN2903]

Nothing in these first two states makes me think that trump WON'T win by more than he did in 2016.

Dems could find that centrist who would could really appeal in the suburbs but I don't see it yet.

[Walmart_shopper]

I've been wrong about Bernie being able to win the general. America isn't A Center-Right Country or wtfever, but the 2020 incarnation of him just isn't motivating people outside his base. (I still maintain that the 2016 version could have.)

I tend to agree with this, but he was never the suburban women candidate and where Bernie has perhaps really expanded his base is among minorities. Iowa and NH just don't give us an opportunity to see hoe successful he's been. In 2020 you can squeeze minority turnout really tightly and fire up your base and win a national election.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I've been wrong about Bernie being able to win the general. America isn't A Center-Right Country or wtfever, but the 2020 incarnation of him just isn't motivating people outside his base. (I still maintain that the 2016 version could have.)

The 2016 version had a feeling of "magic" and populist change that this incarnation doesn't. I'm not sure if it's because the party as a whole has acquiesced somewhat to his policies or lack of freshness, but there hasn't been many moments from him this time that's on par with the "America" ad (For example). It's like he's gone from "Agent of change" to "Elder statesman" in 4 years. We'll see when we get to more Hispanic electorates and his potential/supposed surge with them, but it's a shell of the hip-new campaign of 2016 with rarely-discussed ideas and 100% grassroots campaigning.

And I'm saying that as a solid Bernie supporter then and now.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1227430952680525824

Gonna be a photo finish.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I've been wrong about Bernie being able to win the general. America isn't A Center-Right Country or wtfever, but the 2020 incarnation of him just isn't motivating people outside his base. (I still maintain that the 2016 version could have.)

The 2016 version had a feeling of "magic" and populist change that this one doesn't. I'm not sure if it's because the party as a whole has acquiesce somewhat to his policies or lack of freshness, but there hasn't been many moments from him this time that's on par with the "America" ad (For example). It's like he's gone from "Agent of change" to "Elder statesman".

And I'm saying that as a solid Bernie supporter then and now.

Did Trump already suck up the populist anti-establishment energy from Bernie’s 2016 campaign?

[Lumine]

Gabbard is not dropping out, she said she'll go on to South Carolina.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout projection:

290.000 (D)
155.000 (R)

[NOVA Green]

Are there enough votes outstanding for pete to win?

No. I told you this like an hour ago, all you had to do was read it.

Not a NH native so why doesn’t he have enough outstanding votes?

Derry Town in Rockingham County...

Pete and Amy did well there, but looking pretty clear that Bernie did well enough among the European-Ethnic WWC Catholic Voters from Irish, French/French-Canadian, & Italian background.

Throw Manchester & Nashua into the mix game, set match....

[Gass3268]

Anyone have any up-to-date turnout projections?

Much better than 2016, might get to 2008 levels or better.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1227430952680525824

Gonna be a photo finish.

The raw vote margin isn’t decreasing...

[Grassroots]

Gabbard is not dropping out, she said she'll go on to South Carolina.

Why!?

[The Free North]

Yeah Bernie wins this by 2%, not great for him, not great for anyone really.

[Shadows]

Klobuchar has taken a lot of votes from Warren too along with Biden votes. I don't think people even care about ideology anymore.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/dsakowich_WMUR/status/1227431354264100864

[jimrtex]

	Sanders	Buttigieg	Klobuchar	Warren	Biden
NH-1	25.6%	23.8%	20.4%	8.9%	9.0%
NH-2	26.4%	24.1%	19.5%	10.1%	7.9%
NH-AL	25.9%	24.0%	20.0%	9.4%	8.6%

This is based on DDHQ with 76% in.

[It’s so Joever]

I’m guessing Bernie wins by 1.5-2.0 percent. Bad night for camp Sanders, the honest winner is Klobuchar.

[Florida Man for Crime]

With these suburban results, I'm beginning to think that even VA might be a swing state this fall with Bernie at the top of the ticket.

Just like how in 2008 Hillary Clinton won PA, MI, and OH in the primary, and then everyone said "oh, Obama will lose in the swingy rust belt."

[Calthrina950]

Gabbard is not dropping out, she said she'll go on to South Carolina.

Why!?

As I've said before, she's not running for reelection to the House, and therefore has nothing to lose. She could stay in for the long haul, if she wished.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/dsakowich_WMUR/status/1227431354264100864

Anemic.