New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1227217429195100167?s=20

Well at the very least, that sign also puts to rest how to pronounce his last name. 

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1227217429195100167?s=20

Well at the very least, that sign also puts to rest how to pronounce his last name. 

Why do the signs say Boot-Edge-Edge when everyone pronounces it "Boot-A-Judge"?

[Tender Branson]

Even if he doesn't win today, Pete has run a great campaign.

A year ago, nobody knew this guy.

Now, he's at the top of the nomination polls against a former VP, a Senator who almost won the nomination in 2016, 2 female sitting Senators and a billionaire with a media empire who can spend 500 Mio. $ alone for the primary.

You sound nervous

Not really, I feel pretty good about today.

I'm more nervous about the next few states and Super Tuesday ...

[Eraserhead]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1227217429195100167?s=20

I don't get why candidates/campaigns predict victory when things are very much up in the air at best. The Sanders campaign did this in Iowa and I also thought that was stupid. These people are failing at the expectations game!

[Baki]

As someone who likes Pete and would like to see him win today, I think that will not be the case and I also think it's not going to be close.

I think Sanders wins clearly by 4-8 points, while Pete and Klobuchar are separated by 2-5% maximum.
Biden in 4., Warren in 5.

This is based on nothing but a gut feeling.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Pete winning NH would certainly be an upset.

[redjohn]

Pete winning NH is a necessity for his campaign. If he loses NH, I think he has almost no shot at the nomination at all.

[YE]

Merged per request.

Can we not have "predict" threads merged with the main thread for results?  I think if there are numbers posted in this thread, they should be results.

Tender requested that he merge his old thread with this one right at the last moment so I complied. I'll re-split of the relevant prediction posts though.

[Grassroots]

I'm fully confident that Pete can win today.

[Gass3268]

Turnout approaching 35% already in Burlington


Very good for sanders. That’s home turf

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure there isn't a Burlington, NH.

[Xing]

At this point, I kinda feel bad for Biden. I wonder if he didn’t even want to run, but was pressured by enough people and assumed that it’d be easy enough with his early polling numbers. Buttigieg will probably get a decent second tonight, which is impressive, but it’s hard to see where he goes from there.

[n1240]

Turnout approaching 35% already in Burlington


Very good for sanders. That’s home turf

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure there isn't a Burlington, NH.

35% turnout at noon also seems obscurely high for an election that's expecting around 45% turnout overall, he may just be making stuff up - which I'm pretty sure he has done before.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I am hoping the results are:

1) Bernie
2) Klobuchar
3) Buttigieg
4) Warren
5) Biden

However, I am starting to wonder at this point if it might not actually be better for Bernie if Biden got 4th and Warren got 5th.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm fully confident that Pete can win today.

Not a good mindset, you will be going to sleep with a sad face due to over expectations

[Eraserhead]

Is there any early turnout reports that seem notable or nah?

[Matty]

Is there any early turnout reports that seem notable or nah?

Yes usually by now we get some turnout figures

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1227258274854195200?s=20

As long as this person ended up voting for Pete, I won't complain about how they reached that decision

Even if he doesn't win today, Pete has run a great campaign.

A year ago, nobody knew this guy.

Now, he's at the top of the nomination polls against a former VP, a Senator who almost won the nomination in 2016, 2 female sitting Senators and a billionaire with a media empire who can spend 500 Mio. $ alone for the primary.

You sound nervous

Wouldn't you be if Pete and Bernie's polling were reversed?  Iowa taught me not to count out Pete and or the possibility of late deciders breaking hard toward a single moderate candidate out of nowhere, but anyone with eyes can see Pete's the underdog.  I also think it'll be pretty close (2-3% either way) and that folks have been waaaaaaay too quick to count out Pete.  I've always been skeptical of Clownbachar's supposed surge, especially since she didn't do that well in Iowa even with Biden imploding (something that will definitely happen here and almost certainly benefit Pete).  However, I think we can all agree we'd rather our candidate have Bernie's polling in NH going into the election than Pete's. 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Pete winning NH would certainly be an upset.

Not really. NH is basically the ideal Pete state. It is almost all white, fairly high median income, and is full of contented suburban yuppie women, it is socially liberal, and has an open primary. So if Pete can't win in NH, he can't win anywhere.

[Eraserhead]

Hearing turnout is "slow but steady" in Manchester so far.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Pete winning NH would certainly be an upset.

Not really. NH is basically the ideal Pete state. It is almost all white, fairly high median income, and is full of contented suburban yuppie women, it is socially liberal, and has an open primary. So if Pete can't win in NH, he can't win anywhere.

He already won Iowa, but thanks for playing

[Walmart_shopper]

Pete winning NH would certainly be an upset.

Not really. NH is basically the ideal Pete state. It is almost all white, fairly high median income, and is full of contented suburban yuppie women, it is socially liberal, and has an open primary. So if Pete can't win in NH, he can't win anywhere.

Except Iowa. Which is just white.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Except Iowa. Which is just white.

But Iowa has fewer wine track suburban voters. NH has a $75k median household income, IA is $60k, so Pete ought to be able to do better than he did in Iowa.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Pete winning NH would certainly be an upset.

Not really. NH is basically the ideal Pete state. It is almost all white, fairly high median income, and is full of contented suburban yuppie women, it is socially liberal, and has an open primary. So if Pete can't win in NH, he can't win anywhere.

Except Iowa. Which is just white.

So are the majority of Berne's supporters.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

He already won lost Iowa, but thanks for playing

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He already won lost Iowa, but thanks for playing

Denial isn't a river in Africa.