What Election Ended the Solid South?

[PBrunsel]

The South was a Democratic stronghold since 1876, but now it has somewaht turned around. What election changed the cracked the Solid South?

[M]

I actually think 64. A psychological barrier was breached in that election. For the dems, it was the beginning of the end.

[zachman]

I'm saying 1964. If I have to write another paper I should write about Southern political trends.

[PBrunsel]

I put 1964. It was the first time since 1876 South Carolina went Republican!

[12th Doctor]

1980.  In reality, the south was really torn away from the Democrats until then.

[TheWildCard]

I'd say the true end of the solid south began in 1948 when the State's Rights party took 4 states away from the Democrat's solid south.

[English]

1964, about the time the Democrats went down the path of social liberalism and civil rights.

[minionofmidas]

1928, when the Upper South went Republican on a pro-KKK and pro-Prohibition vote.

The Dems won it back and kept throughout the Roosevelt/Truman era, of course, but the aura of invincibility was gone.
For the Deep South, 1948 or 1964.

[The Dowager Mod]

'64

[Subliminal]

1980. The South went Dem again after 64. It hasn't gone back since 1980

[Giant Saguaro]

In the modern context, I think it began in 1964 as Goldwater's new conservative message was planted. Lessen government, build defense, etc. It kind of started growing, I think, and Reagan came along in 1980 (after they tilted back the other way in 1976), built on that mesage, and ended it. Then the "solid south" switched to GOP, I guess. So one could make an argument for both '64 or '80.

[Ben.]

1980. The South went Dem again after 64. It hasn't gone back since 1980

I’d say yes, but if you look at the state by state results its still pretty close (just look at places like AR and NC). I think that Carter was pretty much an aberration, 1972 I think can be seen as the time when the south began to whole heartedly reject the National Democratic Party however Carter won the south back in 1976 but his disastrous time in office did for him in the south just as it did for him every where else. I think that the South has never really become as solidly republican as it was democratic and thanks to civil rights will probably never be (who can really doubt that intimidation and segregation helped the Democrats in the south?). I think the South votes at the presidential level very much in terms of who represents its attitudes and values. In 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992 and 2000 you can see the south voting for the guy who represented its values and attitudes Bush is probably as strong in the south as Reagan he embodies southern attitudes that well and the “war on terror” will have only reinforced this southern identification with Bush and his popular vote total should go a fair way up thanks to this boost in southern support.

The Democrat Solid South has not become a Republican Solid South, instead it is a competitive region that leans to the GOP but generally votes at the presidential level on highly personal assessments of the candidates and that’s been the case right back to the introduction of civil rights by LBJ which alienated so many southerners. The Civil Rights act in of its self was not the problem the problem and the thing which seems to have really offended southerners was the lurch to the left of the Democratic Party on social issues during the 1970’s with McGovern and in 1968 Eugene McCarthy being the vocal trial blazers, it was their mocking attitude to southern social attitudes that coming on top of the civil rights issue seemed to reinforce a perception that the Democratic Party was almost provoking the south into voting against them. And that’s what happened.          

[Gustaf]

All can be argued. As Lewis points out the beginning of realignement is probably 1928 (MA and RI going Dem, etc). The Democratic South was really a sinking ship from 1948 and onwards. However, I would say that it didn't really end until Nixon won in 1968. There you had a close election in which the Democratic candidate lost all of the South, save Texas. Previously unthinkable.

[© tweed]

1964, although 1980 could be argued-a southern incumbent losing all but one southern state...rough...but I still voted 1964.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Upper South: 1928
Deep South: 1948
---
BTW, the worst three elections for the Dems in the South in the C20th were 1964, 1968 and 1972. IMO Carter saved the Dems as a "national party".

[JohnFKennedy]

I still stand with 1964 at the Presidential level.

Not at the congressional level. In January 1963 (88th Congress), the composition of the Southern states in the Senate and the House were as follows:

House Delegation:
(Democrats-Republicans)

Alabama 8-0
Arkansas 4-0
Florida 10-2
George 10-0
Louisiana 8-0
Mississippi 8-0
North Carolina 9-2
South Carolina 6-0
Tennessee 6-3
Texas 21-2
Virginia 8-2

Total: 98-11
Senate Delegation:
(Democrats-Republicans)

Alabama 2-0
Arkansas 2-0
Florida 2-0
George 2-0
Louisiana 2-0
Mississippi 2-0
North Carolina 2-0
South Carolina 2-0
Tennessee 2-0
Texas 1-1
Virginia 2-0

Total: 21-1

That is pretty overwhelmingly Democrat.

[Gustaf]

States based on relation to average, presidential elections:

1964



1968



1972



NOTE: there is some sort of a bug with the ME CDs, it won't allow me to give both of them and the state to McGovern...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I still stand with 1964 at the Presidential level.

Not at the congressional level. In January 1963 (88th Congress), the composition of the Southern states in the Senate and the House were as follows:

House Delegation:
(Democrats-Republicans)

Alabama 8-0
Arkansas 4-0
Florida 10-2
George 10-0
Louisiana 8-0
Mississippi 8-0
North Carolina 9-2
South Carolina 6-0
Tennessee 6-3
Texas 21-2
Virginia 8-2

Total: 98-11
Senate Delegation:
(Democrats-Republicans)

Alabama 2-0
Arkansas 2-0
Florida 2-0
George 2-0
Louisiana 2-0
Mississippi 2-0
North Carolina 2-0
South Carolina 2-0
Tennessee 2-0
Texas 1-1
Virginia 2-0

Total: 21-1

That is pretty overwhelmingly Democrat.

A lot of them were... err... Dixiecrats...

[Storebought]

1956. Eisenhower carried LA, and lost South Carolina by 'normal' margins.

[??????????]

1956. Eisenhower carried LA, and loss South Carolina by 'normal' margins.

Storebought, Vote in the Mock Election under the 2004 section..now.. Thanks

'Its not the Fantasy election'*



*Just a disclaimer

[Storebought]

1956. Eisenhower carried LA, and loss South Carolina by 'normal' margins.

Storebought, Vote in the Mock Election under the 2004 section..now.. Thanks

'Its not the Fantasy election'*



*Just a disclaimer

I did vote. Who do you think turned LA purple? :-)

[Frodo]

If one has to use a certain land-mark election, 1948 was the beginning of the end for Democratic dominance in the South -especially the Deep South, with the breakaway Dixiecrats foreshadowing the changing allegiance of southerners from Democrats to Republicans. 

[The Dowager Mod]

1980

[A18]

Are you sure?

'64

[Snefix]

I'd say 1968.  Every single southern state besides Texas went Republican or for Wallace.