Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1225446920891568129?s=20

It's looking like Sanders won't get what he needs (turnout of 601 voters) in CD-01 to take the lead. It currently stands at 357 with 4 precincts with no results.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Bernard Sanders won
1. He was deprived a major prime time victory speech.

2. Pete Buttigieg got to claim victory, and set the narrative.

3. He lost (multiple) days of national headlines.

And people act like this was a fair proccess.

[atheist4thecause]

What I don't get is why are the SDEs even needed in the modern era? If the caucus itself is so sacred and important - and truth be told, in the context of primaries, I believe the process should be somewhat restrictive - then why not just use it in conjunction with a simple popular vote?

The simple truth is this: at some point, this system was created to maximize some people's influence and minimize others. The same mindset that governs the use of SDEs et al is the same mindset that created my home state's county unit system and the modern-day Democratic Party State Committee member allocation (minimum of 1 member per county). The system was designed to benefit certain voters and help certain candidates: it's a feature, not a bug.

Does that mean it was specifically rigged against Sanders? No, of course not: in fact, it probably benefited him in 2016 (not convinced Sanders voters > Clinton voters in IA in '16). Additionally, this kind of crap has been in place for decades. Thankfully, his campaign did insist upon a revision of the system that now brings this nonsense to light. Can you imagine how many idiot precinct workers et al have been falsely calculating delegates for the entirety of this system's history?

The system is much like the Electoral College where it weights rural areas heavier than cities to make the whole state matter. Look how every county in Illinois votes Republican but because Chicago votes Democrat, the entire state flips. Nobody needs to ever go outside of Chicago. Republicans basically just avoid the state because of it. That's not good for Democracy. As Andrew Yang said, do you really want a few cities like NY and LA to determine the elections?

Invalidating vast sums of voters' influence isn't good for democracy either.

I want the will of the people of Iowa to determine the electoral outcome of the state of Iowa. I want the will of the American people to determine the electoral outcome of America. If you're going to use the word "democracy", then understand what that means. Otherwise, just say that you think some people should count more than others. This isn't 1790 and rural America isn't populated by vast sums of farmers who get their news 2 months after it's published and have to walk a full day to cast their votes.

IA is also not at all like the Electoral College, because it isn't based on population and the SDEs assigned can vary quite wildly for areas of identical population (or even registered voters).

1) You realize that the EC count isn't based on an evenly proportionate number of the population, and even if it was, there are non-population aspects to it, right? Your objections are outside of the realm of what matters to the analogy.

2) You brought up how information doesn't come two months later and other points that have no bearing on the conversation. They are literally irrelevant.

3) I don't understand what Democracy means, and clearly you don't. A democracy is a system in which the people vote in elections. There are different types of democracies. One is a Direct Democracy, where people vote on legislation. We have that to some extent with ballot initiatives. Another form is a Democratic Republic where people vote for representatives. We have this system to a large extent.

In any of the democratic systems, there is absolutely nothing forcing every vote to be the same. Votes can be grouped, weighted, etc. The ironic thing is that it is both true that each vote counts as the same and true that some areas have the votes count as more than other areas, it just matters what lens you put on the analysis.

4) The system in Iowa does not benefit Sanders because he goes after the population centers, which are weighted less than the rural areas.

5) Next time, take on the issues rather than being pedantic.

6) Show me a single voter that had their vote invalidated.

[atheist4thecause]

If Bernard Sanders won
1. He was deprived a major prime time victory speech.

2. Pete Buttigieg got to claim victory, and set the narrative.

3. He lost (multiple) days of national headlines.

And people act like this was a fair proccess.

And yet Democrats are lining up in their promise to vote for whoever the Democrat is, despite this totally unfair process. They are sacrificing their vote to become a sheep. I chose to leave the Democratic Party rather than become a sheep, even though I have Liberal values.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Another form is a Democratic Republic where people vote for representatives. We have this system to a large extent.

The term for this is representative democracy. "Democratic republic" is either 1. a right-wing thought-terminating cliche to deflect criticism of the counter-majoritarian aspects of the American political system specifically or 2. a euphemism for a communist regime.

[Gass3268]

If Bernard Sanders won
1. He was deprived a major prime time victory speech.

2. Pete Buttigieg got to claim victory, and set the narrative.

3. He lost (multiple) days of national headlines.

And people act like this was a fair proccess.

And yet Democrats are lining up in their promise to vote for whoever the Democrat is, despite this totally unfair process. They are sacrificing their vote to become a sheep. I chose to leave the Democratic Party rather than become a sheep, even though I have Liberal values.

Any Democrat is better than Trump.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

That's okay, Bernie can claim some type of victory today: he raised more in the last month than, like, all the other candidates combined. He'll ride into a strong finish in NH and then take that momentum to NV. In the long run, the person MOST damaged by this chaos is Joe Biden--whose disastrous finish indicates he may be weaker than we previously expected. Damaged Biden = good for Bernie.

[atheist4thecause]

Another form is a Democratic Republic where people vote for representatives. We have this system to a large extent.

The term for this is representative democracy. "Democratic republic" is either 1. a right-wing thought-terminating cliche to deflect criticism of the counter-majoritarian aspects of the American political system specifically or 2. a euphemism for a communist regime.

You can always pick a Socialist out in a crowd, because the only way their ideology can make any sense at all is to try to completely change the entire vocabulary. The fact that you can't explain your position using terms in the way they are normally used and always resort to word-thinking shows how weak your ideology is.

In our system, whether you want to use a different term to mean the exact same thing as what normal people mean by Democratic Republic or you just want to use the Democratic Republic term itself, people vote for representatives. That makes it a Democracy. You word-thinking doesn't change the idea behind the words.

[Xing]

So even if we get the remaining precincts soon, we probably won't have an official winner, due to the errors? Unreal.

[Ljube]

So even if we get the remaining precincts soon, we probably won't have an official winner, due to the errors? Unreal.

The top two are neck and neck and it is not easy to calculate the SDEs.

[atheist4thecause]

If Bernard Sanders won
1. He was deprived a major prime time victory speech.

2. Pete Buttigieg got to claim victory, and set the narrative.

3. He lost (multiple) days of national headlines.

And people act like this was a fair proccess.

And yet Democrats are lining up in their promise to vote for whoever the Democrat is, despite this totally unfair process. They are sacrificing their vote to become a sheep. I chose to leave the Democratic Party rather than become a sheep, even though I have Liberal values.

Any Democrat is better than Trump.

Is blindly voting for the party worth allowing the party to do whatever they want, effectively sacrificing your vote? Trump at most will have one more term. You can lose your vote going forward forever. You are being taken advantage of by Party Bosses.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

If Bernard Sanders won
1. He was deprived a major prime time victory speech.

2. Pete Buttigieg got to claim victory, and set the narrative.

3. He lost (multiple) days of national headlines.

And people act like this was a fair proccess.

And yet Democrats are lining up in their promise to vote for whoever the Democrat is, despite this totally unfair process. They are sacrificing their vote to become a sheep. I chose to leave the Democratic Party rather than become a sheep, even though I have Liberal values.

Any Democrat is better than Trump.

Is blindly voting for the party worth allowing the party to do whatever they want, effectively sacrificing your vote? Trump at most will have one more term. You can lose your vote going forward forever. You are being taken advantage of by Party Bosses.

Universal health care, LGBT rights, climate change, women’s equality, campaign finance reform, combating voter suppression, the Supreme Court, the Iran agreement, restoring our international standing, hell yes — any Democrat is better than Trump.

[atheist4thecause]

That's okay, Bernie can claim some type of victory today: he raised more in the last month than, like, all the other candidates combined. He'll ride into a strong finish in NH and then take that momentum to NV. In the long run, the person MOST damaged by this chaos is Joe Biden--whose disastrous finish indicates he may be weaker than we previously expected. Damaged Biden = good for Bernie.

Yeah, I've been back and forth on this. On one hand, people don't know exactly where Biden ended up. On the other hand, there was a lot of talk about how Biden even finished 5th behind Klobuchar, or MAYBE 4th. It turned out that he was 4th pretty easily and ended up closer to 16% than 15%. There's only 2.2% separating Biden and Warren right now.

The way I'm seeing Iowa now is Buttigieg and Sanders led the field and Warren, Biden, and Klobuchar were all fairly close. It was a two-tiered race, not a three-tiered race.

[atheist4thecause]

If Bernard Sanders won
1. He was deprived a major prime time victory speech.

2. Pete Buttigieg got to claim victory, and set the narrative.

3. He lost (multiple) days of national headlines.

And people act like this was a fair proccess.

And yet Democrats are lining up in their promise to vote for whoever the Democrat is, despite this totally unfair process. They are sacrificing their vote to become a sheep. I chose to leave the Democratic Party rather than become a sheep, even though I have Liberal values.

Any Democrat is better than Trump.

Is blindly voting for the party worth allowing the party to do whatever they want, effectively sacrificing your vote? Trump at most will have one more term. You can lose your vote going forward forever. You are being taken advantage of by Party Bosses.

Universal health care, LGBT rights, climate change, women’s equality, campaign finance reform, combating voter suppression, the Supreme Court, the Iran agreement, restoring our international standing, hell yes — any Democrat is better than Trump.

You don't get to vote for any of that when you give your vote away to the party going forward. You get what they give you. The voting system is completely unfair, and you support that system. It doesn't make sense to say that you give up your vote for someone else to control because you want certain policies.

[jaichind]

That's okay, Bernie can claim some type of victory today: he raised more in the last month than, like, all the other candidates combined. He'll ride into a strong finish in NH and then take that momentum to NV. In the long run, the person MOST damaged by this chaos is Joe Biden--whose disastrous finish indicates he may be weaker than we previously expected. Damaged Biden = good for Bernie.

Yeah, I've been back and forth on this. On one hand, people don't know exactly where Biden ended up. On the other hand, there was a lot of talk about how Biden even finished 5th behind Klobuchar, or MAYBE 4th. It turned out that he was 4th pretty easily and ended up closer to 16% than 15%. There's only 2.2% separating Biden and Warren right now.

The way I'm seeing Iowa now is Buttigieg and Sanders led the field and Warren, Biden, and Klobuchar were all fairly close. It was a two-tiered race, not a three-tiered race.

But if that were the way to read it then there should be no reason for Klobuchar drop out anytime soon and that she should continue which really means cutting into the Biden vote for a while longer.

[Tender Branson]

I really don't care about this debacle of a caucus anymore and already have my sights set on NH.



(I just noticed that only 27 of 41 delegates were awarded for some reason so far. Plus, there are 8 so-called pledged delegates. Does anyone know who they are and who they support ? And what's with the other 14 delegates ?)

[elcorazon]

If Bernard Sanders won
1. He was deprived a major prime time victory speech.

2. Pete Buttigieg got to claim victory, and set the narrative.

3. He lost (multiple) days of national headlines.

And people act like this was a fair proccess.

And yet Democrats are lining up in their promise to vote for whoever the Democrat is, despite this totally unfair process. They are sacrificing their vote to become a sheep. I chose to leave the Democratic Party rather than become a sheep, even though I have Liberal values.

Any Democrat is better than Trump.

Is blindly voting for the party worth allowing the party to do whatever they want, effectively sacrificing your vote? Trump at most will have one more term. You can lose your vote going forward forever. You are being taken advantage of by Party Bosses.

The biggest loser in the Iowa fiasco is Pete Buttigieg. Bernie didn't need the victory speech in prime time nearly as much as Pete did.
The fact that the results may change slightly over an extended period is not actually even unusual.
There has been no conspiracy. The democratic party is not trying to  things up.
The Iowans clearly have screwed up but claiming this is some sort of plot to screw Bernie is pure BS. I'm really getting tired of it. This kind of talk only benefits one person - Donald Trump. America is going down a very dark path and we need to come together to stop it. Please do not foment these conspiracy theories.

[jaichind]

I really don't care about this debacle of a caucus anymore and already have my sights set on NH.



(I just noticed that only 27 of 41 delegates were awarded for some reason so far. Plus, there are 8 so-called pledged delegates. Does anyone know who they are and who they support ? And what's with the other 14 delegates ?)

I think 5 of the rest are super-delegates and 9 are at large which are allocated by overall SDE with a 15% cutoff to get any out of this bunch.  This is why it is so critical for Biden to be above 15% of SDE.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

If Bernard Sanders won
1. He was deprived a major prime time victory speech.

2. Pete Buttigieg got to claim victory, and set the narrative.

3. He lost (multiple) days of national headlines.

And people act like this was a fair proccess.

And yet Democrats are lining up in their promise to vote for whoever the Democrat is, despite this totally unfair process. They are sacrificing their vote to become a sheep. I chose to leave the Democratic Party rather than become a sheep, even though I have Liberal values.

Any Democrat is better than Trump.

Is blindly voting for the party worth allowing the party to do whatever they want, effectively sacrificing your vote? Trump at most will have one more term. You can lose your vote going forward forever. You are being taken advantage of by Party Bosses.

Universal health care, LGBT rights, climate change, women’s equality, campaign finance reform, combating voter suppression, the Supreme Court, the Iran agreement, restoring our international standing, hell yes — any Democrat is better than Trump.

You don't get to vote for any of that when you give your vote away to the party going forward. You get what they give you. The voting system is completely unfair, and you support that system. It doesn't make sense to say that you give up your vote for someone else to control because you want certain policies.

Isn’t that literally how an election works? You’re voting for someone else to control things?

In any case, the greatest chance of fixing our broken electoral system is electing democrats. Period.

The whole ‘both sides are the same/equally corrupt’ thing is provably false and honestly trite at this point.

[Smash255]

I really don't care about this debacle of a caucus anymore and already have my sights set on NH.



(I just noticed that only 27 of 41 delegates were awarded for some reason so far. Plus, there are 8 so-called pledged delegates. Does anyone know who they are and who they support ? And what's with the other 14 delegates ?)

Different sites have different estimates.  There are 8 unpledged Delegates (Super Delegates).

There are 41 awarded based on the Caucus total.  Green Papers has an estimate based on the current total of Pete 14, Sanders 12, Warren 8, Biden 6 and Klobuchar 1.  If Bernie winds up winning the statewide SDE's it would change to 13 for Bernie & Pete, 8 Warren, 6 for Biden & 1 for Klobuchar.  Warren is close to viability in the 4th which would cost Pete his 2nd delegate there if she reaches it, but that appears unlikely at this point (again assuming the Green Papers #'s are accurate)

[GeneralMacArthur]

TBH, at this point it's silly to say that anyone won this thing.  Look back at this thread and the sheer number of inconsistencies and data errors Atlas has found.  This is now so close that any one of those errors could swing the result.

I definitely agree that this (and all close elections) should not be paraded around as wins, especially when they make up only a small part of the total process. No one goes out and celebrates 'cause they won a county 52-48. As has been repeated ad nauseam, Iowa's significance is almost entirely a weirdly overplayed emphasis on who narrowly wins first place, even though it has 1) only 1% of the total number of pledged delegates and 2) is proportional, just like every other Democratic primary/caucus.

Unfortunately, coming from you, it's frustrating to hear. Almost all of your previous posts in this thread have either been complaining about Sanders, complaining about the Sanders campaign, or complaining about Sanders supporters. When it looked like Buttigieg was ahead, it was complimenting his efforts to find supporters in "every nook and cranny" of the state. Now that Sanders looks close, it's complaining about Sanders cheating by focusing on a get out the vote effort for satellite caucuses. When it looked like Buttigieg was ahead, it was insinuating that Sanders supporters couldn't accept a loss even after mocking Hillary for her own. Now that Sanders looks close, it's a call for viewing the results as a tie.

Your calls for unity and a critical view of what went down in Iowa wring hollow when they only show up when the results are in question, even if your ultimate conclusion is something everyone in this thread can agree with.

The posts about Buttigieg winning were when it was looking like a 2-3% Buttigieg victory, which is a solid win.  It wouldn't have been reasonable to talk about a tie then.

Now it's looking like a dead tie where a victor will be declared based on tiny fractions of a delegate, as determined by providence in human error.  So those are two very different results.  It's not like I switched to calling for a tie as soon as Sanders moved ahead.  I began thinking it should just be a tie after three hours of watching the pendulum swing back and forth based on "oops we accidentally counted 18 Sanders votes for Tom Steyer"

The inane conspiracy theories and temper tantrums that completely took over Twitter in the 48 hours following the election deserve to be mocked no matter what.  And I would say that about any candidate's supporters.  Just that I never have to because you never see Warren supporters collectively losing their minds and coming up with idiotic conspiracy theories.

The practice of bussing voters to a different precinct to get more delegates via a loophole deserves to be called out even if it's not, legally speaking, cheating.  That doesn't mean Sanders "rigged the election" or anything, just that he abused a loophole in the new rules.  Up to the reader to decide whether or not that's ethical.

[2016]

If Klobuchar gets a Pledged Delegate out of Iowa it would mean Qualification for the NBC/MSNBC Debate in Las Vegas Nevada later this month.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Another form is a Democratic Republic where people vote for representatives. We have this system to a large extent.

The term for this is representative democracy. "Democratic republic" is either 1. a right-wing thought-terminating cliche to deflect criticism of the counter-majoritarian aspects of the American political system specifically or 2. a euphemism for a communist regime.

You can always pick a Socialist out in a crowd, because the only way their ideology can make any sense at all is to try to completely change the entire vocabulary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_democracy

word-thinking

As opposed to what?

[Ljube]

I really don't care about this debacle of a caucus anymore and already have my sights set on NH.



(I just noticed that only 27 of 41 delegates were awarded for some reason so far. Plus, there are 8 so-called pledged delegates. Does anyone know who they are and who they support ? And what's with the other 14 delegates ?)

The delegate count

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=352211.25

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1225429100363382784?s=21