Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Ljube]

Horrific start for biden

Not only is he doing worse than expected in college areas and the cities

He is seeing a late klobuchar surge take away some of his voters

Some? More like most.

[Hydera]

Now is probably a good time to remember that Biden's previous runs for President went nowhere. Seems like he doesn't have much luck running for President.

If anything he just sleeps through it all.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Its looking as though Biden is not going to have a good night. Are you getting that feeling?

So far this is embarrassingly bad for him. The one possible saving grace is that maybe the people in these early satellite caucuses are more politically aware/high information voters. Biden's only real hope is that the people who caucus in the regular caucuses are lower info voters and that he does MUCH better among them due to name recognition. Which is indeed possible to some extent.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I feel a lot of these posts will be dug up later tonight/tomorrow if Biden gets over 20%

Yes, but Des Moines caucus, Paris caucus, and all is not where Biden has to score. I think Biden does well in southern rural Iowa. It's not a great start though and it might convince other Iowans not to caucus for Biden last-minute if they're watching. It just looks a bit grim for Biden but we have to wait.

The one thing i'll remember is the good start for Klobuchar which i wasn't expecting. We will see where she ends, but if the trend continues, she might be viable at most places. I mean she's sweeping in Florida caucuses, who had thought that. Would she do the same in Arizona or in wealthy suburbs, the north of Iowa. We will see.

[atheist4thecause]

I feel a lot of these posts will be dug up later tonight/tomorrow if Biden gets over 20%

That's a pretty low bar IMO.

[Crumpets]

As someone who hasn't been following the news at all today and hasn't read any of the above replies, I am feeling cautiously optimistic.

[Oryxslayer]

If Biden is going to have a problem, its due to the demographics of the democratic electorate in Iowa. The youth are going for Sanders and Warren as expected. Women, especially those in the older/educated bracket, are going for Klobucher and Warren. That's the surprise so far. He's naturally getting squeezed by Pete and the rest for the middle aged, and the older male group is small on the D side. There aren't many AAs in Iowa of course. So its not the best state for him. However, it is the first state and that will matter.

Also, please don't dig this up in 4 hours or whatever - there is an IF at the start of the post specifically because of caution.

[Hindsight was 2020]

In all seriousness though wtf is with Biden? It’s early but my god man

[Gustaf]

I'm confused. Are we doing some sort of ironic peak Atlas thing overreacting to a few hundred satellite caucus voters? Or am I missing something?

[2016]

Its looking as though Biden is not going to have a good night. Are you getting that feeling?

Too soon too tell. Wait for that Entrance Poll.

That being said the Biden Camp was banking at a Turnout similar to 170K which we had in 2016. A lower Turnout favours Biden.
It looks like it will be well over 200K and may very well eclipse 2008 when they had 240K.

Turnout is definitly a concern for Biden methinks.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I feel a lot of these posts will be dug up later tonight/tomorrow if Biden gets over 20%

That's a pretty low bar IMO.

Still, I'm expecting an annoying deluge of "bIdEn In DiSaRrAy" and ""But muh satellite caucus!" comments in the event of a 3rd place finish

[Xing]

I'm confused. Are we doing some sort of ironic peak Atlas thing overreacting to a few hundred satellite caucus voters? Or am I missing something?

It's an election year, so the overreaction is amplified by about 100.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm confused. Are we doing some sort of ironic peak Atlas thing overreacting to a few hundred satellite caucus voters? Or am I missing something?

They're just overeager.  It's been a long time since they've had the opportunity to overreact.

[Minnesota Mike]

Bernie is doomed.
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1224477506645807105

[Matty]

Bernie not viable in az satellite

[W]

Bernie is doomed.
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1224477506645807105

..with people who own two homes in Arizona. I'll sleep easy.

[Minnesota Mike]

I'm confused. Are we doing some sort of ironic peak Atlas thing overreacting to a few hundred satellite caucus voters? Or am I missing something?

They're just overeager.  It's been a long time since they've had the opportunity to overreact.

Overreact? On Atlas? never.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm confused. Are we doing some sort of ironic peak Atlas thing overreacting to a few hundred satellite caucus voters? Or am I missing something?

80% irony 20% noticeable that Biden is doing abysmal

[Devout Centrist]

Bernie not viable in az satellite

Wow, he lost 65+ year old retirees in Arizona. It's over folks.

[Bidenworth2020]

Is Klob dominating in AZ?

[Oryxslayer]

Biden has 28 in AZ and viable.

[Ljube]

Biden 28 in AZ, slightly above 15%.

[W]

Of course these numbers are insignificant to the overall results but these Arizona and Florida caucuses should be Biden's strong suit and a good hallmark for who he will do best for in-state. That is not happening. No one is saying he is doomed but this is an awful, awful start for a campaign that should be in 1st or 2nd in these precincts.

[Ebsy]

These snowbird caucuses are all locked off together from the instate satellite caucuses, so they really are going to have negligible impact. They are essentially being treated as a 5th congressional district.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Is Klob dominating in AZ?

She's viable, is said on CNN.

EDIT: Buttigieg also viable