Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[jimrtex]

Why would Warren lose so much (and Biden gain so much) in translating the final vote into SDEs?

The number of caucus participants varies quite a bit across the state. Caucus turnout is particularly high at college campuses, and urban areas, lower in rural areas.

State delegates are awarded to counties based on the Democratic vote for president in 2016, and governor in 2018.

In 2016, caucus turnout was 170K, while Clinton received 650K votes. So roughly 26% of Democratic voters caucused (ignoring for effects of Democratic caucus goers not voting for Clinton).

But in Johnson County (Iowa City/UI) and Story County (Ames/ISU) the ratio was around 40%. It was elevated in more urban counties, and depressed in rural counties (more around 20%).

So imagine two precincts with 1000 Democratic votes in 2016/2018. They would each elect the same number of state delegates (indirectly, which is what SDE are).

One has 30% turnout (300) and the other 20% turnout (200).

Now imagine Warren gets 20% of the vote in Precinct A (60 votes) and 15% of the vote in Precinct B (30 votes). Overall she has 90/500 = 18%.

Now imagine Biden gets 15% of the vote in Precinct A (45 votes) and 20% of the votes in Precinct B (40 votes). Overall she has 85/500 = 17%.

But they would get the same number of delegates.

There could also be selection biases. I'm not saying the Sanders campaign was cherry-picking the data, but they were able to get results from only about 2/5 of precincts. Perhaps they were getting reports from precinct captains where Sanders did well. If your precinct gave him 35% wouldn't you want the Sanders campaign to know? If Sanders was not viable in your precinct, you would be more reluctant to report the result. You might have gone home. If Sanders was not viable, it would likely mean that Warren was.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If Biden really is 5th, would this be the biggest flop for any national frontrunner? Especially considering he held his national lead from the start, unlike Giuliani, who collapsed late in 2007 before any vote was cast.

Anyway, it appears to be a dumpster fire for him. I almost regret endorsing him. At least CA hasn't voted yet.

I think it's better to go towards a fresher face like Pete Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar if you want to stop Sanders or Warren. I mean New Hampshire is going to be close as well and I doubt Biden is going to do there as well, as it's close to Sanders' homestate and Warren's homestate and Buttigieg is creating momentum. Klobuchar also has the momentum going. And eventually the results for IA will come in and they'll inevitably talk about it. I mean it doesn't look good for Biden.

And if Biden can't win in this crowded field, will his electability argument still stand out. If he can't win here in IA in a Democratic caucus, will he win a state like IA back in the general election. The answer is no. IA votes very similar as WI, so that means Wisconsin will be in danger too. It doesn't too look good for Biden.

I think someone new as Pete or Amy will fit you better, and in my belief, the newer generation fit the values of America better. I would be willing to coalesce around one of those two, while i'm not doing that for Joe Biden.

[gottsu]

If Biden really is 5th, would this be the biggest flop for any national frontrunner? Especially considering he held his national lead from the start, unlike Giuliani, who collapsed late in 2007 before any vote was cast.

Anyway, it appears to be a dumpster fire for him. I almost regret endorsing him. At least CA hasn't voted yet.

They once called Kamala Harris Democratic Marco Rubio, so now they will call Joe Biden Democratic Jeb Bush.

The biggest primary frontrunner flop to me still stays Gary Hart.

[Grassroots]

If Biden really is 5th, would this be the biggest flop for any national frontrunner? Especially considering he held his national lead from the start, unlike Giuliani, who collapsed late in 2007 before any vote was cast.

Anyway, it appears to be a dumpster fire for him. I almost regret endorsing him. At least CA hasn't voted yet.

It appears so.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The fact that with more Democrats to choose from than even in 2008 and not without a declining population and more election coverage that turnout is lower than in 2008 is concerning as well for Democrats. This might meen that the state still has a strong Republican lean, and that few swing voters / independents and so caucused for their candidate. I don't think IA will flip in november guys.

[Grassroots]

Harris=Rubio
Beto=Walker
Biden=Bush
Warren=Kasich?

[scutosaurus]

Broke: DNC is rigging the primary against Bernie
Woke: DNC is rigging the primary against Yang
Bespoke: DNC is rigging the primary against Biden

The DNC is only rigging the primary against Bennet.

[Frodo]

It always comes back to Hillary:

Tech firm started by Clinton campaign veterans is linked to Iowa caucus reporting debacle

[Sir Mohamed]

If Biden really is 5th, would this be the biggest flop for any national frontrunner? Especially considering he held his national lead from the start, unlike Giuliani, who collapsed late in 2007 before any vote was cast.

Anyway, it appears to be a dumpster fire for him. I almost regret endorsing him. At least CA hasn't voted yet.

I think it's better to go towards a fresher face like Pete Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar if you want to stop Sanders or Warren. I mean New Hampshire is going to be close as well and I doubt Biden is going to do there as well, as it's close to Sanders' homestate and Warren's homestate and Buttigieg is creating momentum. Klobuchar also has the momentum going. And eventually the results for IA will come in and they'll inevitably talk about it. I mean it doesn't look good for Biden.

And if Biden can't win in this crowded field, will his electability argument still stand out. If he can't win here in IA in a Democratic caucus, will he win a state like IA back in the general election. The answer is no. IA votes very similar as WI, so that means Wisconsin will be in danger too. It doesn't too look good for Biden.

I think someone new as Pete or Amy will fit you better, and in my belief, the newer generation fit the values of America better. I would be willing to coalesce around one of those two, while i'm not doing that for Joe Biden.

I've always recognized Biden's flaws and the lack excitement for his campaign over the months. It appears that his support in polls is mostly soft.

Btw, I don't want to stop Warren. She's my 2nd choice with Butti. I have nothing against Sanders as well. Tbh, I most want to beat Trump. If Sanders is the nominee, I will do everything to get him elected. If Bloomberg is nominated, fine. I will do everything to get him elected prez. Anyone who beats Trump and makes modest improvements in peoples lives is a big step forward.

[Crumpets]

Woof... great start guys lol. Was out cold and missed the festivities unfortunately, but this is just an amazing start for the dems...

Front runner Biden 5th... hahahahahahaha!!!!

This is certainly making the Clinton '08 supporter in me feel a bit better about her 3rd place finish there.

[jaichind]

If Biden really is 5th, would this be the biggest flop for any national frontrunner? Especially considering he held his national lead from the start, unlike Giuliani, who collapsed late in 2007 before any vote was cast.

Anyway, it appears to be a dumpster fire for him. I almost regret endorsing him. At least CA hasn't voted yet.

Only other example I can think of is Dean 2004

[libertpaulian]

Harris=Rubio
Beto=Walker
Biden=Bush
Warren=Kasich?

Warren=Cruz.

Both are Southerners who are ideologically purist and rigid and whose voices sound like nails on a chalkboard.

[American2020]

Harris=Rubio
Beto=Walker
Biden=Bush
Warren=Kasich?

?=Trump
?=Ted Cruz

[Grassroots]

Harris=Rubio
Beto=Walker
Biden=Bush
Warren=Kasich?

Warren=Cruz.

Both are Southerners who are ideologically purist and rigid and whose voices sound like nails on a chalkboard.

Um

[Frodo]

When this is all over, Iowa should be relegated to a backwater in future election cycles.  Never again should it have the same place of prominence it has enjoyed for decades.  

[Yellowhammer]

DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY

[gottsu]

When this is all over, Iowa should be relegated to a backwater in future election cycles.  Never again should it have the same place of prominence it has enjoyed for decades.  

Speaking of law, you can do someting with Iowa caucus?

[Middle-aged Europe]

DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY

'Kay.

[Grassroots]

DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY

Atlas in disarray.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I like the suggestion to just scrap these caucuses completely and schedule an Iowa Democratic primary on June 2, the last major day of primary season. 

We have untainted results coming in shortly. The vote has already been cast. It would be a travesty for it not to count over a handful of irregularities on second round balloting. Let the results be posted and the people of Iowa have their unique say. We are talking uncertainty over a couple delegates out of thousands. Otherwise, you are just moving 20+ delegates to the presumed nominee.

It's not as if primaries are without irregularities. They are just more discreet.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Harris=Rubio
Beto=Walker
Biden=Bush
Warren=Kasich?

?=Trump
?=Ted Cruz

Bloomberg = Trump
Klobuchar = Kasich
Warren = Cruz

[Grassroots]

I can't even imagine the amount of chaos at the IDP HQ yesterday night especially. Now too.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1224707251199528961

[libertpaulian]

Not a great way for the Dems to start off.  The GOP in 2012 started off similarly, and look where they ended up that year.

[Frodo]

When this is all over, Iowa should be relegated to a backwater in future election cycles.  Never again should it have the same place of prominence it has enjoyed for decades.  

Speaking of law, you can do someting with Iowa caucus?

We cut down on the number of superdelegates, and greatly reduced the number of caucuses last time, didn't we?  We can put Iowa and New Hampshire at the back of the line beginning with the 2024 election cycle.