Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Reaganfan]

I'm a bit perplexed.

Democrats on MSNBC and CNN keep saying how flawed the Iowa Caucus is. However, last night, Republicans held a caucus in Iowa, we counted our votes and have 100% reporting with clear results. So perhaps the problem isn't the Iowa Caucus, but the Iowa Democratic Party.

AFAIK, Republicans didn't decide to use a woefully untested app during the symbolically-pivotal kickoff of the 2020 election season.  

Also, the Republican caucus doesn't complicate things further since they don't have the "realignment" rule.

Also, let's not forget that the 2012 Iowa caucus on the republican side was actually another massive fiasco with Romney first being declared the winner and then a long time later it was declared that infact Santorum had won, robbing Santorum of the Iowa bounce.

Yea but a close race or an undecided race is one thing...this is just ridiculous.

[Queen Isuelt]

https://twitter.com/naletho/status/1224566503204360193

most counties reported. biden doing terribly.

[Queen Isuelt]

Biden camp on CNN saying they won Ida county (congressional district 4)

If this is true, how thankful must he be with the results not reported? I know Iowa is a difficult place to poll but the Des moines register was right biden was at 13 and klobuchar did surge to 13.

Biden isn't hitting viability in soo many precints. Even in places where 3-4 candidates are meeting it, biden is often the one missing out.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/naletho/status/1224566503204360193
most counties reported. biden doing terribly.

What is this? They guy has 15 followers...

[Mehmentum]

can anyone tl;dr me what's going on?

1) Complete chaos. App isn't working properly.

2) But there's backup, so results should be announced later today.

3) Buttigieg and Sanders' camps are both more or less claiming victory.

4) Likely Sanders and Buttigieg are 1/2, Warren is 3, Biden and Klobuchar are 4/5.

5) Sanders supporters see conspiracies everywhere.

How did Buttgieg out of everybody surged to the top?

Looks like he did well in second choices, and the delegate allocation was good to him due to which precincts he was stronger in.

[Zaybay]

It seems extremely likely that Sanders wins the first vote, but the SDEs look to be possibly tilting towards Buttigieg.

Anyone else have any thoughts on what the final result will be?

[TWTown]

https://twitter.com/naletho/status/1224566503204360193
most counties reported. biden doing terribly.

What is this? They guy has 15 followers...

You do realize he’s the chair for a county in the caucuses and not a Senate candidate right..?

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/jaylencavil/status/1224531122354298881?s=19

[Gustaf]

I'm a bit perplexed.

Democrats on MSNBC and CNN keep saying how flawed the Iowa Caucus is. However, last night, Republicans held a caucus in Iowa, we counted our votes and have 100% reporting with clear results. So perhaps the problem isn't the Iowa Caucus, but the Iowa Democratic Party.

AFAIK, Republicans didn't decide to use a woefully untested app during the symbolically-pivotal kickoff of the 2020 election season.  

Also, the Republican caucus doesn't complicate things further since they don't have the "realignment" rule.

Also, let's not forget that the 2012 Iowa caucus on the republican side was actually another massive fiasco with Romney first being declared the winner and then a long time later it was declared that infact Santorum had won, robbing Santorum of the Iowa bounce.

Yea but a close race or an undecided race is one thing...this is just ridiculous.

I should know better than to engage with an anti-semitic fascist, but I fail to see how holding off on reporting the result because you're not sure yet is WORSE than just reporting the wrong winner on election night.

[StateBoiler]

I was watching CNN's coverage on a couple hour delay and I loved the coverage of the Grinnell College precinct. 15% was the minimum threshold for viability. Sanders had the most in this precinct in a romp followed by Warren. None of the other candidates with groups were viable. The Biden, Yang, and Klobuchar groups joined together as Uncommitted in a bid to get to 15%. The Buttigieg group disintegrated and split amongst Sanders, Warren, and Uncommitted. Uncommitted wound up with 15.4% of the precinct caucus attendees so they'll get a delegate at the county convention.

Iowa Caucuses are quirky but be sad to see them go. The talk of threshold and viability, this is really just a ranked choice vote that's out in public.

[Skye]

I just hope they release the entirety the results in one big dump. It's the least we deserve.

[Walmart_shopper]

It seems extremely likely that Sanders wins the first vote, but the SDEs look to be possibly tilting towards Buttigieg.

Anyone else have any thoughts on what the final result will be?

Probably a modest (~4 point) win for Bernie in final votes. A much larger margin in first votes. I also am guessing Warren is either 2nd or a very close 3rd.

[mgop]

Bernie Sanders
27.71
      
Elizabeth Warren
25.07   
   
Pete Buttigieg
23.84   
   
Amy Klobuchar
11.84   
   
Joe Biden
11.08   

lol biden finished 5th, he's done!

[Middle-aged Europe]

He ran for president three times... and all three times, he totally bombed. How fitting.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Bernie Sanders
27.71
      
Elizabeth Warren
25.07   
   
Pete Buttigieg
23.84   
   
Amy Klobuchar
11.84   
   
Joe Biden
11.08   

lol biden finished 5th, he's done!

Ouch.  Do you have a source for these numbers?

[mgop]

He ran for president three times... and all three times, he totally bombed. How fitting.

*how many times do we need to teach you this lesson old man*

[tagimaucia]

if you're gonna just paste a bunch of numbers on here without explaining what they are, that's literally useless.  are those 1st round numbers, 2nd round?  is that all precincts? if not, what percentage? c'mon people.

[Arson Plus]

There should be a Primary in 2024.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Wouldn't this be the first county he won outside of Delaware without being on a ticket with Obama?

[tagimaucia]

ok, i googled and those are literally results from the AP 5 hours ago with 1.87% of precincts reporting.  why the hell would you post that?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/jaylencavil/status/1224531122354298881?s=19

I understand the concept may be alien to Republicans, but in a democracy, there are actually rules, agreed upon in advance, for how representatives are allocated. It's not just "find an excuse for my guy to win".

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/jaylencavil/status/1224531122354298881?s=19

I understand the concept may be alien to Republicans, but in a democracy, there are actually rules, agreed upon in advance, for how representatives are allocated. It's not just "find an excuse for my guy to win".

Yes. It is like whining about 'but the popular vote'!

[Mechavada]

I'm a bit perplexed.

Democrats on MSNBC and CNN keep saying how flawed the Iowa Caucus is. However, last night, Republicans held a caucus in Iowa, we counted our votes and have 100% reporting with clear results. So perhaps the problem isn't the Iowa Caucus, but the Iowa Democratic Party.

AFAIK, Republicans didn't decide to use a woefully untested app during the symbolically-pivotal kickoff of the 2020 election season.  

Also, the Republican caucus doesn't complicate things further since they don't have the "realignment" rule.

Also, let's not forget that the 2012 Iowa caucus on the republican side was actually another massive fiasco with Romney first being declared the winner and then a long time later it was declared that infact Santorum had won, robbing Santorum of the Iowa bounce.

Yea but a close race or an undecided race is one thing...this is just ridiculous.

I should know better than to engage with an anti-semitic fascist, but I fail to see how holding off on reporting the result because you're not sure yet is WORSE than just reporting the wrong winner on election night.

I'm far from Naso's biggest fan (in fact I made a lengthy tirade against him some time ago) but what?  For the life of me I don't remember him saying bad things about Jews (gays, Muslims, blacks, and immigrants, yeah definitely).  Sources?

[American2020]

From Nate Silver

To be even more blunt: the Iowa Democratic Party’s colossal screw-up in reporting results will potentially have direct effects on the outcome of the nomination process. The failure to report results will almost certainly help Biden, assuming that indications that he performed poorly in Iowa are correct, as they won’t get nearly as much media coverage. And they’ll hurt whichever candidate wins the state — mostly likely Sanders or Buttigieg. (Although if Sanders winds up finishing in second place or lower, he also might not mind a reduction in the importance of Iowa, especially with one of his best states, New Hampshire, coming up next.)

Furthermore, Iowa is typically a state that winnows the field. But with every candidate either having performed well there, potentially having an excuse for a disappointing finish there, or somewhere in between, it might not do that. Delaying the winnowing process would tangibly increase the chance of a contested convention.

It’s not a good situation for the Democratic Party. And it’s already too late for the damage to be entirely undone, even if Iowa eventually gets its act together.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-might-have-screwed-up-the-whole-nomination-process/

[Tintrlvr]

can anyone tl;dr me what's going on?

1) Complete chaos. App isn't working properly.

2) But there's backup, so results should be announced later today.

3) Buttigieg and Sanders' camps are both more or less claiming victory.

4) Likely Sanders and Buttigieg are 1/2, Warren is 3, Biden and Klobuchar are 4/5.

5) Sanders supporters see conspiracies everywhere.

How did Buttgieg out of everybody surged to the top?

Looks like he did well in second choices, and the delegate allocation was good to him due to which precincts he was stronger in.

Also, Buttigieg seems to have had a pretty even spread of support, which at the low 20s in first round means he was viable most places. Whereas Sanders dominated some sites but was more geographically concentrated so was non-viable in more places. Warren also more like Buttigieg, Biden more like Sanders (but an inverted pattern). Klobuchar also more evenly spread but with lower support so she was failing viability in a lot of places anyway.