What state should go first in Democratic primaries/caucuses (user search)
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  What state should go first in Democratic primaries/caucuses (search mode)
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Author Topic: What state should go first in Democratic primaries/caucuses  (Read 2379 times)
Del Tachi
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« on: February 03, 2020, 04:34:26 PM »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-early-democratic-primary-states-looked-more-like-the-party/

Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Florida and Nevada's Democratic electorates are those most similar to the national Democratic electorate.  Hawaii, Mississippi, Alaska, Alabama and D.C. are the most dissimilar.

I think its good to let small states go first (it gives shoestring campaigns a chance to break onto the national scene without having to raise a lot of money to compete in bigger media markets) so I guess I'd say Nevada (assuming they nix their caucus and go with a primary)?
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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*****
Posts: 17,864
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2020, 11:57:47 AM »

Nevada and Mississippi should certainly replace Iowa and New Hampshire.  They are still small enough to allow for the in-person retail politics that Iowa and New Hampshire currently enjoy, while better reflecting the diversity of the present-day Democratic Party.  And as an aside, it will force Democratic candidates to confront the endemic poverty of the inhabitants (predominately black) living along the Mississippi delta.   

MS Democrats are actually less representative of the national Democratic electorate than IA Democrats.  538 estimated that 72% of MS Dems were Black, compared to only 58% for South Carolina (these estimates seem a bit low, but are probably relatively correct).
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