What state should go first in Democratic primaries/caucuses
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  What state should go first in Democratic primaries/caucuses
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Author Topic: What state should go first in Democratic primaries/caucuses  (Read 2289 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: February 02, 2020, 12:20:45 PM »

Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of the future of America, and the Democratic Party electorate, it is one of the whitest.

Which state should go first in primaries for Democrats down the line, Florida, Missouri and Ohio, which is more of a microcosm, or California and New York, what Democrats want America to look like?

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/iowa-caucuses-should-a-more-diverse-state-vote-first-163649189.html
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Grassroots
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« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2020, 11:53:14 PM »

Illinois, of course. No seriously, Illinois is a big mix of urban and rural, liberal and conservative areas, white, black, hispanic, asian. Its perfect imo.
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2020, 12:48:00 PM »

If we were replacing the four states

Illinois - fairly large, as Grassr00ts said, very diverse racially and urban/rural wise
Mississippi - rural black voters
Arizona - Latino/NA voters, both urban and rural
Georgia - rural and urban black voters, as well as ascending suburban coalition

maybe trade one of these for a rust belt state, but I'd say Illinois fits that bill, and on average these states are the same or larger than the current breakdown of IA/NH/NV/SC.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2020, 02:02:11 PM »

Illinois, of course. No seriously, Illinois is a big mix of urban and rural, liberal and conservative areas, white, black, hispanic, asian. Its perfect imo.

It really is a microcosm of the country if you think about it.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2020, 02:16:07 PM »

Illinois, of course. No seriously, Illinois is a big mix of urban and rural, liberal and conservative areas, white, black, hispanic, asian. Its perfect imo.

It really is a microcosm of the country if you think about it.

Except for the fact that the country has never had a president go to jail.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2020, 02:54:07 PM »

Yea, I like Illinois.

Illinois last was heavily contested as a swing state in 2000 ironically.

Bush tried his earnest to win IL, campaigning in IL until the end.
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Coastal_Elite
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« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2020, 03:36:57 PM »

New York -- it is anchored by a large, liberal city but also has rural voters like the Plains states and  Rust Belt cities (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, etc.) like the Upper Midwest.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2020, 04:12:51 PM »

Illinois, of course. No seriously, Illinois is a big mix of urban and rural, liberal and conservative areas, white, black, hispanic, asian. Its perfect imo.

It really is a microcosm of the country if you think about it.

Except for the fact that the country has never had a president go to jail.

What are you getting at here?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2020, 04:34:26 PM »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-early-democratic-primary-states-looked-more-like-the-party/

Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Florida and Nevada's Democratic electorates are those most similar to the national Democratic electorate.  Hawaii, Mississippi, Alaska, Alabama and D.C. are the most dissimilar.

I think its good to let small states go first (it gives shoestring campaigns a chance to break onto the national scene without having to raise a lot of money to compete in bigger media markets) so I guess I'd say Nevada (assuming they nix their caucus and go with a primary)?
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2020, 11:10:01 PM »

Tonight's delay of the IA caucus began this discussion.

IL or NY should come first in 2024
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Continential
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« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2020, 05:20:16 PM »

Illinois, of course. No seriously, Illinois is a big mix of urban and rural, liberal and conservative areas, white, black, hispanic, asian. Its perfect imo.

It really is a microcosm of the country if you think about it.

Except for the fact that the country has never had a president go to jail.

What are you getting at here?
Most Governors in Illinois have been jailed.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2020, 07:03:24 PM »

If Democrats are really against the caucus system, why not hold a nationwide single primary on the same day? Why the endless campaigning? Why have a delegate system at all in fact? Why not let the voters decide?

The answer, of course, is that they only dislike the caucus because they couldn't shove through a Hillary landslide back in 2016. None of these party hacks were complaining when Iowa launched Obama into the White House twelve years ago.
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: February 05, 2020, 04:33:40 PM »

If it's going to be one state, I'd say either Illinois or Georgia. Both have urban, rural, and suburban areas, Obama/Trump voters and Romney/Clinton voters, large numbers of both party bases, diversity, and substantial populations. Clearly, though, there would have to be something done about this historic corruption of the Cook County Democratic Party.

I'd like to see a system where Illinois, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Montana all vote first on the same day. This would show candidate strength and viability in states varying in elasticity, general partisanship, population, region, and racial and religious diversity. It would also allow candidates a chance to show both retail and mass media skills, and would require broader appeal on a wider set of issues. Throwing Montana into the mix would also give some influence to Native Americans, who are largely left out of the process currently.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2020, 06:21:22 PM »

Jokes about corruption aside, Illinois isn't a great idea. One of the benefits of Iowa is that it's cheap to advertise there, which the Chicago media market is anything but. Having Illinois as an early state would lock out candidates who may not necessarily have the money to compete.

If we're sticking with a Midwestern state, maybe Michigan? Much more racially diverse than Iowa, has a good mix of urban, suburban and rural voters, and the media markets aren't super expensive.

That said, I would keep New Hampshire as an early state. Democrats need to win over SOME white voters, and the primary electorate in Nevada and South Carolina is mostly minority anyway.

Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina sounds like a good set for both the Democratic and Republican primaries.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2020, 09:04:41 PM »

Michigan sounds good.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2020, 07:26:18 AM »

Four states should go 1st on the same day.  Iowa and New Hampshire get to keep their spots. Add in Mississippi and New Mexico.   These are a diverse group of states that don't have major media markets where it would be very expensive to run TV ads. And that's the issue I'd have with Illinois and New York. I still went candidates who are less well funded to have a shot.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2020, 08:59:28 AM »

NV caucuses,  if NV went first, that voted for Hilary, Harris and Warren would of been the nominee, not Biden, whom has been steadily declining in polls
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2020, 02:13:41 PM »

Honestly my 2 options would be:

1: Completely random. Just randomize the order of the states, possibly making it so the first 4 states have to be from 4 different regions of the US

2: Voting in order of closest to least close results. This means that for the 2020 primaries, the first states would be NH, WI, PA and MI; while the last states would be along the lines of DC, WV, WY or HI. For territories, just strip them of delegates or put them at the end (as common wisdom suggests they'd be safer than any state, except DC if you want to count that). For Dems abroad just put them in the state where they last lived.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2020, 07:56:33 PM »

Definitely Alaska.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2020, 10:01:20 PM »

You know what would be interesting?  Allow the parties to decide on their own, but have the stipulation that whichever state is chosen to host the national convention must also be the first primary / caucus. 

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if caucuses are eliminated all together after this year though.  Among Democratic contests at least.
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Storr
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« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2020, 11:24:02 PM »

There should be a national primary. So everyone would go first!
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Slander and/or Libel
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« Reply #21 on: February 25, 2020, 08:42:24 AM »

There should be a national primary. So everyone would go first!

Yep.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #22 on: February 25, 2020, 12:01:01 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2020, 12:23:11 PM by StateBoiler »

If I was made Dictator I'd have the state go first where its election result most closely mirrored the national result. For 2020, that means one of Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin.
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Frodo
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« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2020, 12:15:28 AM »

Nevada and Mississippi should certainly replace Iowa and New Hampshire.  They are still small enough to allow for the in-person retail politics that Iowa and New Hampshire currently enjoy, while better reflecting the diversity of the present-day Democratic Party.  And as an aside, it will force Democratic candidates to confront the endemic poverty of the inhabitants (predominately black) living along the Mississippi delta.   
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Frodo
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« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2020, 12:19:03 AM »

There should be a national primary. So everyone would go first!

And who would benefit most from a national primary?  The better funded candidates with the resources to spread around the country.  And who are those better funded candidates likely to be?  More often than not (though certainly not always) establishment candidates.  A national primary is institutionally biased against insurgents. 

I am not sure if that's what you really want.  
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