The Mikado
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Posts: 21,774
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« on: March 08, 2020, 12:06:50 PM » |
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Part of the problem is that, for very real logistics reasons, states would like to keep their Democratic and GOP primaries on the same day. Obviously, it doesn't happen with every single contest, but it's fairly likely that no matter what happens in 2020, there'll be open-ish primaries on both sides in 2024 (Biden probably wouldn't run for a second term if he wins, and if Trump wins there'd be no incumbent on either side) so the GOP calendar becomes important too.
That said, one advantage is that the GOP can't be thrilled with the IA Caucus and its tendency to vote for ridiculous religious charlatans with no chance of winning the nomination. The IA Caucus has a horrible record on the GOP side. I do think it's possible to get the DNC and RNC to agree to spike Iowa's primacy, even if everything else is difficult.
I think the most likely outcome in that case would be to move NH, NV, and SC up one and pick a new state for the newly vacant fourth slot, and make that Illinois. IL going fourth would alleviate some of the "Big state dominating the primary" fears while still giving a big state some early relevance. IL would be a good state for the GOP as well.
The Dems might couple this change with abolishing all caucuses (so NV becomes a primary, for example) and awarding bonus delegates to states which use RCV like they already do for clustering primaries and for having states vote in contiguous groups.
The GOP would probably keep its rickety collection of primaries, caucuses, and conventions that no one actually gets to participate in. (Three states, including a mid sized state like Colorado, flat out held unelected state conventions to select delegates on the GOP side in 2016)
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